-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
657
FXUS62 KILM 160746
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
346 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north and maintains control
through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures are
expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a
coastal trough develops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will extend into the area from the north today and
tonight while an old front lingers to the south and west.  While
much of the area will remain dry today and tonight, there is a small
chance for showers and storms over our western areas that are nearer
the boundary.  Skies will be mainly sunny east and partly cloudy
west. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with cooler
numbers nearer the beaches.  Lows tonight will fall to the upper
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mid level ridge will build across the area through
the short term period with the associated surface high axis well off
to the northeast. A relatively deep east to northeasterly flow will
keep temperatures hovering spot on climatology with no chances for
rain. Highs will range from the middle 80s or so along the coast
with values near 90 well inland. Lows will be a little more uniform
with basically middle 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Somewhat remarkably consistent forecast even in the
warm season when things can have a tendency not to change much. The
aforementioned mid level ridge in the short term discussion will
shift northward with the modified easterly flow continuing.
Temperatures remain within a few degrees of climatology leaning
warmer late. Medium range guidance is also liking a tropical wave or
low moving across the region (probably more south considering the
massive ridge) which may bring a few showers and or increased cloud
cover later in the period as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecast shows VFR through the 06Z TAF period. However, there is
guidance indicating a period of cigs around 1kft in the 10Z to 15Z
timeframe.  While this seems unlikely to occur as cigs of this
nature are an outlier in guidance, it does indicate a non-zero
chance of IFR CIGS developing by daybreak at several terminals.
Light east winds overnight will ramp up to about 10 KT after sunrise
and diminish again after 00Z Monday.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through Tonight...
East winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected today and tonight, though
speeds could drop off a little tonight.  Seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected.

Monday through Thursday...
Uncanny persistence for the marine community as well with
basically east winds of 10-15 knots and seas at least early on in a
range of 2-4 feet. The persistent fetch leads to a significant swell
component developing by mid to late week with increasing chances of
small craft conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/31