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501
FXUS62 KILM 160133
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
933 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north and maintains control
through much of next week. Seasonably warm temperatures are
expected with rain chances returning late in the week as a
coastal trough develops.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Forecast updated to lower rain chances the rest of the night,
based on latest radar trends and hiRES models.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Ridging starts to build in, and with no real upper-level
support going on, the surface front may stall somewhere in
southern Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties tonight. Lows
mostly in the lower 70s. Some of the cooler spots in parts of
Bladen and Pender Counties may dip into the low-to-mid 60s.

Ridging over the Georgia-Alabama border shifts eastward into
the Carolinas Sunday. This should keep most everyone dry. The
stalled front to the south does keep around some cloud cover,
allowing for highs to reach a few degrees cooler than today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off of the New England coast and ridging aloft
will maintain dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures
through much of next week. Persistent onshore flow will bring
humid conditions Sunday night and Monday night. Highs on Monday
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to
upper 60s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ongoing high pressure and ridging continues through Thursday.
Latest global models develop a trough of low pressure offshore.
Steering flow will keep this low south of the area, but SE winds
will increase. Persistent SE winds will lead to the development
of swell creating the potential for elevated rip currents late
this week. A weak coastal trough could bring a few showers or
thunderstorms to the coastal counties late in the week. Highs
each day will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Some showers and thunderstorms
remain this evening over pockets of the area, but not affecting
the TAF sites. Winds become a bit more variable tonight, with
an ESE wind by midday Sunday up to 10-12 kt, with sfc high
pressure centered off to the NE.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Southerly winds at 5-10kts back to the ENE
late tonight, with the pressure gradient increasing the
sustained speeds up to 10-15kts by Sunday afternoon. Seas remain
at 2-3ft.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Persistent SE flow will be in
place throughout the forecast period. SE swell will generally
stay 2-3 feet through Tuesday. A gradual increase in swell
energy is expected on Wednesday and especially Thursday as SE
winds increase and a weak trough of low pressure develops over
the western Atlantic. Seas increase to 3-5 feet on Wednesday and
near SCA conditions (6+ feet) by Thursday. Given that the
development of this low has been inconsistent in consecutive
model runs, confidence is low in the potential for SCA
conditions by Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...IGB/21