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694
FXUS61 KILN 201832
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
232 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance will offer isolated showers tonight. High
pressure will bring a brief return to warm and dry conditions
on Saturday before an unsettled pattern arrives starting Sunday
afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing through
early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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A mid-level disturbance and accompanying weak frontal system will
move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late tonight. Weak
low-level convergence ahead of the front will allow isolated to
scattered convection to develop to our north and west. However,
this convection will likely be weakening as it moves into our
area late this evening due to loss of daytime instability.

Otherwise, we could see some fog development across east-central
Indiana and west-central Ohio behind the front as skies clear in
the pre-dawn hours. The fog signal is shown well in the 12Z HREF
probability fields... though it remains mostly to our west.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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After a bit of patchy fog to start the day, surface high
pressure will briefly build into the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday through Saturday night. Mid-level ridging will also
extend back northeast into our area keeping us in a warm and dry
air mass. High temperatures will once again reach to around 90
degrees, which is 13-14 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Lows Saturday night will remain in the 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the long term
with daily precipitation chances. There is decent model agreement in
the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe and therefore confidence is
higher.  Thursday and Friday has more variability and therefore kept
precipitation chances lower during that time.

Temperatures on Sunday will be warm in advance of the rain moving
into the region.  Cooler temperatures will be in place for the
remainder of the week with the daily precipitation chances.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak front will bring increasing VFR clouds and a slight chance
of showers overnight, perhaps making it as far as DAY before
the precipitation diminishes. Opted to keep the TAF dry due to
low coverage as well as uncertainty with how far east the
showers make it before drying out.

After the frontal passage, there could be just enough clearing
to produce some fog near DAY and points west. High resolution
models including HREF membership has been hitting this potential
with 50-70% probability of 1/2 mile or less visibility. The main
question is eastward extent... so for now have limited the
restriction to MVFR at DAY with IFR conditions remaining west
of the airfield. Elsewhere, skies will clear with VFR conditions
continuing through Saturday as high pressure briefly builds into
the Ohio Valley.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...