-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
050
FXUS64 KLIX 240446
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A very broad upper level ridge centered near the Desert Southwest
extends across nearly the entire southern half of the country. This
is the same high pressure system that was northeast of the local
area last week. It has traversed across the southern tier of the
country and is the reason convection has basically been shutdown the
last couple days. It`s current and short term position in relation
to the CWA puts the local area on the eastern periphery of stronger
subsidence. Going into Monday, still looking at another above
average temp day but with higher surface dewpoints as southerly flow
becomes better established. This will both raise daytime peak heat
indicies and introduce the chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Those
should initially be primarily on seabreeze boundaries. General
southwestward propagation is expected with northeast mid/upper level
flow in place but outflow boundaries could certainly modify that.
Back to the temperatures, with highs similar to today but higher
dewpoints will yield widespread heat indices around 108 to 110ish.
While convective coverage and late initiation time shouldn`t have
much effect on the heat advisory verifying Monday, Tuesday is more
of a questionmark. The potential for similar to even warmer
temps/heat indices exist but storms may develop earlier in the day
and be more widespread. mid 90s expected areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

An upper level trough diving south across the Ohio River Valley
towards the SECONUS will erode the eastern edge of the ridge west of
the area. That`ll certainly allow for increasing convective coverage
Wednesday, which is what NBM depicts. More storms and slightly lower
500mb heights will bring down daytime highs back closer to climo.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals right now and this likely
continues through the forecast period. High pressure continues to
keep winds light and variable through the period. Isolated
convection can`t be ruled out Monday afternoon, but not enough
confidence to include it in the TAFs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Surface ridge centered near the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
generally keep prevailing onshore flow. However, the pressure
gradient is relatively weak, which will result in lighter winds and
seas/waves 2 feet or less for much of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  74  94 /   0  40  10  50
BTR  78  98  78  97 /   0  40  10  60
ASD  76  96  77  95 /   0  40  10  40
MSY  81  95  81  94 /   0  40  10  50
GPT  77  94  77  94 /   0  40  10  30
PQL  76  96  77  97 /   0  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...ME