-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
048
FXUS61 KOKX 100216
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1016 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs will move across the area overnight
into Tuesday. High pressure builds in for the middle of the
week. A cold front will then approach Friday and move through
Friday night, followed by high pressure next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast mainly on track through the overnight. Another piece of
midlevel energy swings over the area tonight, bringing a slight
chance of showers, mainly north and west of the NYC metro. The
low levels are dry so any rain that falls will be brief and
could end up just being sprinkles. The energy will be reflected
as surface trough and NW winds will back around to the W-WSW
before going back to the NW before daybreak.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 50s to low 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The area remains under an upper level trough on Monday with some
additional packets of midlevel energy rotating through. By and large
much of this energy should result in not much more than some cloud
cover as the lower levels should remain fairly dry. A weak
surface secondary cold front moves through, reinforcing the
drier air advection and allowing for a continued W/NW flow
through the day. Highs will be in the 70s. A surface high
pressure slowly begins to build into the area from the west as
early as Monday night. Lows Monday night will be in the 50s to
low 60s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Big warmup for the second half the week, followed by a brief
 cool down for the weekend.

*Mainly dry conditions through the period.

*A frontal system to impact the area with showers and
 thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

An upper trough across the Northeast lifts out on Tuesday briefly
followed by shortwave ridging for the middle of the week.
Afterwards, the upper flow flattens out with a fast flow from
the Northern Plains into the Northeast. This is short-lived as
another upper trough moves into the area to start the weekend.
At the surface, a weak surface trough will be in place on
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for Wednesday.
The latter of which gives way to an approaching frontal system
that is forecast to impact the area late Friday into Friday
night. High pressure then returns to start the weekend. This
will be a mainly dry period with the exception of the frontal
system at the end of the week.

The biggest difference in the global models at this time is with
the magnitude of the upper trough swinging across the Great Lakes
and Northeast at the end of the week. This will determine the
extent and magnitude of the convection associated with the cold
front, as well how much we cool down for the weekend. Based on
the NBM box and whisker temperature plots, the deterministic is
generally at the 25th percentile or lower, especially with
respect to high temps. So, this may not be as much of a cool
down behind the cold front as suggested by the 2m temps of some
of the 12Z operational guidance. Relatively speaking though, it
should be noticeable as Thursday and Friday climb well into the
80s and possibly the lower 90s for the interior. The 50th
percentile is even warmer for those days, so will have to see
where this trends. Generally, stayed between the NBM
deterministic and 50th percentile. An onshore flow is another
question mark for the end of the week in how much it will limit
heating at the coast. Typically at this times of year, coastal
locations generally need a decent westerly component to achieve
higher temps. At this time, max heat indices are forecast to
stay below 95. Temperatures at the onset of the period on
Tuesday will be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A series of surface troughs/cold fronts pass across the
terminals through Monday night.

VFR. An isolated shower remains possible across the Lower
Hudson Valley through 06z.

Winds will continue to back to the W or WSW tonight under 10 kt.
Winds will then shift back to the WNW-NW towards day break
Monday and begin increasing through the morning. Wind speeds
10-15 kt are expected through the day on Monday. Winds may back
to the SW in the afternoon near the coast, but S sea breezes are
unlikely.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-20 kt late Monday morning and afternoon.

Winds at KJFK could stay WNW through Monday afternoon and not shift
to the SW.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA through midweek
with essentially only up to 2 ft ocean seas. The winds become
southerly for the end of the week ahead of an approaching
frontal system with marginal small craft conditions possible on
the ocean by Thursday night into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, the rip current risk will be
decreasing to low for all but the eastern Suffolk beaches for
Monday, which will remain moderate (possibly low late in the
day). A low risk is then forecast for all beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...