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398
FXUS65 KPIH 232000
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Tonight through Monday night. Upper ridge remains in
place with hot, windy, dry conditions today. Winds have been slow
to pick up across the northern Snake Plain, but are starting to
see early afternoon gusts reaching 40 mph. Peak winds should be
approximately 3p-7p today. Wildfire in SW Idaho was quite
prevalent on yesterday`s satellite imagery, with some activity
noted into early afternoon today. Allowed HRRR smoke/haze to
populate short term grids, with plume extending NE across portions
of the central mountains through tonight. Monday pattern looks
similar, albeit slightly cooler and slightly less windy. DMH

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will persist
well into next week as high pressure pushes daytime highs 10 to 15
degrees above climatological norms. Tuesday will be the hottest day
of the extended period, with widespread highs reaching into the low
to mid-90s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, as well
as low elevations further south, with 60s and 70s in the mountains
and 80s in mountain valleys. Elevated upper-level flow will support
breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily each afternoon
throughout the week, where sustained winds will run around 20 mph
with gusts over 30 mph. An upper low will move onshore on Thursday,
with the associated frontal passage bringing advisory-level winds of
30 to 50 mph. Limited moisture will predominately remain further
north in the ID panhandle, although chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms will exist across extreme SE Idaho. The National Blend
does include low-end PoPs up to around 30% generally south and east
of the Snake Plain. Daytime highs will return to within several
degrees of normal on Thursday and Friday. Models show the ridge
rebounding on Saturday, with the NBM featuring a ten degree increase
in high temperatures between Friday and Saturday ahead of an
approaching trough early next week. Cropp
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&&

.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions forecast with mostly clear skies and dry conditions
under high pressure. Elevated winds will be the main impact today
and Monday, with SW sustained winds 10 to 20 kts and gusts 20 to 30
kts. There is potential for smoke from local fires to lead to
reductions in visibility. Cropp
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry conditions and seasonably warm temperatures will persist through
the first half of next week with daytime highs running 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Minimum humidity will range 10 to 20 percent
through mid-week. Furthermore, elevated upper-level flow will
support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain daily each
afternoon throughout the week, with sustained winds reaching or
exceeding 20 mph and gusts ranging 30 to 40 mph. A system will bring
a brief reprieve Thursday through Friday along with slight chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms, dropping temperatures back
to within a few degrees of normal and helping to increase min RH a
bit. Warmer temperatures will return for the weekend with high
pressure returning on Saturday. Cropp
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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$