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109
FXUS65 KPIH 272001
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
201 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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Tonight and Friday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low centered near the
northern parts of the Idaho panhandle moving well to our north along
the Canadian border. This feature has helped tighten the pressure
gradient across eastern Idaho which has led to the windy conditions
we`ve been seeing today. The wind advisory continues across the Arco
Desert, Snake Plain and Lemhi Highlands until 9PM tonight. Some
spots around the INL will likely gust in excess of 60 mph but in the
Snake Plain generally expecting gusts more in the 35-45 mph range.
We saw a few thunderstorms pop up this afternoon in the far SE
corner of the area but these have already pushed into Wyoming and
not expecting much additional development as the day progresses.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter in to the region and
tonight looks pleasant with much cooler overnight lows compared to
the past few days. Expecting most areas to drop into the 30s and 40s
tonight.

We`ll see ample sunshine tomorrow with mostly clear skies expected
throughout the day. Winds will be much lighter, generally 10-15 mph
with a few higher gusts. Precipitation is not expected and daytime
highs will generally be in the 70s with some mid to upper 60s in the
higher terrain. This will be slightly below normal for late June but
enjoy the cooler weather because the heat will be back for the
weekend. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday
High pressure builds in early Saturday with the high pressure
ridge axis over southeast Idaho around noon. By Saturday afternoon
expect the high pressure ridge axis to shift east moving over
Wyoming and allowing breezy southerly flow over our area. A warm
front comes over our area on Sunday and a cold front moves through
early Monday morning. Expect dry conditions Saturday. By Sunday
expect isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Montana
Divide. Temperatures will run 8 to 15 degrees above normal on
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday expect breezy southerly wind gusts
of 20 to 30 mph and Sunday expect southwesterly wind gusts of 25
to 35 mph. Monday expect westerly wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph. On
Monday look for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across
the Montana Divide and the Wyoming border. Monday temperatures
will be around 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

Tuesday high pressure starts building back into the area. Models are
showing high pressure with weak northwest flow aloft all of next
week and continuing into the weekend. High pressure will bring
mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Tuesday expect temperatures
around 2 to 4 degrees below normal. Wednesday through end of the
week look for temperatures to gradually warm  up becoming 5 to 10
degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday. TW
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.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions will continue through the period with mostly clear
skies and no precipitation expected. Winds will remain breezy
however throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the early
evening hours. Once the sun goes down, winds will slowly taper off
and shouldn`t be much of a concern during the overnight and into the
day on Friday. Winds tomorrow will be much lighter, 10-15 knots,
with ample sunshine expected thus keeping things VFR. McKaughan
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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Windy conditions will continue this afternoon into early this
evening behind an exiting cold front. Winds are expected to peak
around 20 to 40 mph with gusts 40 to 60 mph, with locally stronger
wind gusts for FWZ 410. Afternoon humidities will also bottom out
later this afternoon in the single digits and teens across
portions of FWZ 410, 425, and 476. Winds will subside this evening
as dry conditions return through Saturday as high pressure builds
in across the area. Following cooler conditions on Thursday and
Friday, high temperatures will be about 8-15 degrees warmer this
weekend.

Our next system moves through Sunday into Monday with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms with best precipitation chances
along the Montana Divide and the Wyoming border. Look for a mix of
dry and wet thunderstorms with PWATs generally below 0.70 inch. Warm
and dry conditions return Tuesday and continue to gradually warm up
and dry out through the end of the week as high pressure builds back
into the area. Expect temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal
(highs of 80s and 90s) with widespread afternoon relative humidities
below 15 percent by Thursday, July 4th.
TW
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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ052>054-067.
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