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654
FXUS62 KRAH 030551
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A surface cold front will slowly track south and east across the
region, stalling out across portions of eastern North Carolina. High
pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area of low
pressure off the southeast coast could move into the area Sunday,
bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM Thursday...

Surface analysis reveals that the cold front is still situated to
the NW of central NC. The high clouds have cleared out at all but
the far eastern part of NC. As a result, given the widespread rain
that occurred along and east of US-1, low stratus and fog have
broken out over the east and northeast Piedmont and portions of the
Sandhills to the northern Coastal Plain. If observational trends
continue, a Dense Fog Advisory may be issued for areas along and
east of US-1.

Any of the low stratus and fog is expected to lift by 8-9 am. The
surface cold front is forecast in the guidance to move south and
east of the area this afternoon and evening, though confidence on
that happening is not too high given this is the time of year for it
to stall or die out over the area. The low-levels and mid-levels,
however, are more northwesterly, with all but a weak shear axis
noted at 500 mb. The axis could touch off some very isolated storms
nearly anywhere today, but confidence on where is fairly low, with
the best chance along the Sandhills to southern Coastal Plain along
the stalled front or sea-breeze. Conditions will be warm and muggy
in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints largely in the 70s. One
exception is the Triad, which could see dewpoints drop into the mid
60s. Tonight, any isolated storms should quickly die off after
sunset, with lows upper 60s to low 70s. Some patchy fog is again
possible, mainly for areas along/east of I-95.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 145 AM Thursday...

High pressure ridging at mid-levels and at the surface will build
overhead on Fri. The best chance of any isolated storms will be
along the far southern Coastal Plain in conjunction with any sea-
breeze or the stalled frontal boundary. Although highs will stay
warm in the lower 90s, it appears dewpoints will mix out to the mid
to upper 60s with NE flow as the surface high builds down from the
lower Great Lakes region. Low temperatures will be a touch lower,
ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* Mostly dry conditions on Friday and Saturday, with afternoon rain
  chances increasing Sunday through Wednesday.

* Near normal temperatures expected.

Friday and Saturday the region will be under the influence of high
pressure and upper level ridging. This should keep the forecast
mostly dry, with just a slight chance of showers and storms in the
far southeast each afternoon. Diurnal rain chances increase again
starting Sunday afternoon for the rest of the long term. This is in
part due to the potential tropical development off the coast. There
is still a lot of uncertainty with if a tropical system will form,
but regardless of formation, increased moisture will move back into
the region which will allow for an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday.

Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal each day in the
long term. On Friday, maximum temperatures should be in the upper
80s to low 90s. From Saturday to Monday, highs should be in the
upper 80s to around 90, increasing to low to mid 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Along with this, heat indices should be in the upper 80s
to mid 90s from Friday to Monday, with heat indices over 100
possible starting on Tuesday. Lows should generally be in the upper
60s to low 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

A difficult first 6 hours of the TAF period across the central NC
terminals. The main challenge will be the expansion of stratus and
fog across RDU, RWI, and FAY. The strongest signal for fog appears
at RDU. However, recent observational trends suggest FAY and RWI
could also see the fog as high clouds clear out. The latest TAF
shows high potential for fog at these sites. The LIFR conditions
should lift to VFR between 12-14z, slowest to lift at FAY/RWI. At
GSO/INT, one concern is that a cold front is still to the NW. Radar
has shown storm development along the front, west of INT. Confidence
is low that a storm will affect INT but included a TEMPO for the
first few hours given recent guidance from the NAM-NEST. If a storm
were to move over INT or GSO, low stratus and fog may need to be
added. VFR should prevail for most of the aftn/eve at all terminals,
but cannot rule out a stray storm during peak heating. Confidence
was too low to include at any of the terminals.

After 06Z Friday: Some low stratus or fog may be possible Fri
morning. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun
into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/Swiggett