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083
FXUS62 KRAH 082317
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
715 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will remain over the area through tonight, then
move offshore on Sunday. An upper level disturbance and approaching
cold front will cross the region late Sunday and Sunday night. This
front will then stall out just to our southeast starting Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 209 PM Saturday...

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a trough and an area of
decaying convection over central KY/TN, with increasing high clouds
downstream over the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure remains
in place to our west which has kept NC within an airmass featuring
well below normal dewpoints for early June. Temperatures have risen
well into the low to mid 80s as of 18Z, on their way to the
mid/upper 80s before the day is over.

For the rest of the day/tonight, expect varying amounts of high
clouds as the decaying complex of storms moves through the area.
Deep convection has long since dissipated and the remaining showers
that are present on radar west the mountains should fall apart
quickly as they cross the mountains and downslope into the Piedmont
of NC. As such, PoPs remain in the lower single digits for the
evening/overnight hours. Aside from an increase in cloud cover, and
a corresponding increase in temperatures overnight, sensible weather
impacts should be minimal. Temps tonight will be a bit warmer than
those seen this morning with lows bottoming out in the mid/upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 209 PM Saturday...

...Marginal Risk of severe storms across central/southern NC on
Sunday...

A slow moving upper low over the Great Lakes will move into eastern
Canada during the day Sunday. A shortwave will round the base of the
trough, cross the mountains, and arrive in central NC some time
mid/late afternoon on Sunday. Ahead of the attendant surface cold
front, temps will rise well into the low to mid 90s but more
noticeably, moisture will return to the area as the aforementioned
surface ridge shifts offshore and return flow sets up. PW`s will
climb from around 1.0 inches today to nearly 1.75+ inches tomorrow
afternoon. While there will be some remnant cloud cover across the
area tomorrow from upstream convection, it still appears that there
will be sufficient time and breaks in the clouds to support MLCAPEs
in the 500-1000 J/KG range immediately ahead of the surface front as
it moves through the area. Deep layer shear isn`t the most
impressive but 0-6km values should reach 30-40 kt so there should be
some amount of organization to whatever storms form along and ahead
of the front. Primary threat with any storms that develop tomorrow
will be in the form of damaging winds.

As the front moves through the area, precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast through the evening/overnight hours,
eventually drying out completely by daybreak. Lows tomorrow night
will range from the low 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Monday through Wednesday: Aloft, as the amplifying upper trough
swings eastward through the East Coast Mon and Tue, a pair of s/w
disturbances will move through the base of the trough over central
NC. The second s/w will be more potent, however with limited
moisture to work with, chances for any showers with it are low. As
the trough moves offshore Wed, weak, transient ridging will move
through the area ahead of the next disturbance(s). At the surface, a
weak area of low pressure may trail behind the cold front and linger
over central NC on Monday, then shift eastward offshore as a
reinforcing cold front pushes through the area Mon night/Tue. The
low should sit offshore through Tue as the surface high builds
eastward from the OH Valley to the northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast
US. As the high shifts offshore Wed, it should finally push the low
away from the coast. Expect a warm front to lift toward/into the
area Wed night. Best chances for a shower or storm should be
confined to the southern and eastern portions of central NC Mon
night and Tue aft, coincident with the s/w passages aloft and
somewhat favorable diurnal timing. Otherwise, the forecast remains
dry through Wed. Temperatures should be near to slightly below
normal for Mon and Tue, increasing back to slightly above normal by
Wed.

Thursday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge for the latter
half of the week. Aloft, a disturbance over the lower MS Valley/Deep
South could deepen if/as it moves over the Gulf Thu/Fri and meets up
with a northward lifting disturbance over the eastern Gulf. There is
disagreement wrt what happens to the low(s) Fri night/Sat, either
lingering over the Gulf or lifting newd through FL to off the
Southeast US coast. Meanwhile to the north, a northern stream s/w
will track eastward through southeast Canada Wed/Thu as a secondary
low follows behind it Thu/Fri. If these lows merge over Hudson Bay,
the attendant trough could amplify southward through the mid-
Atlantic Fri/Sat. There could be some interaction between the
northern stream trough and the disturbance over the Gulf/Southeast,
but for now there is too much uncertainty to say for sure how it
will play out. Chances for showers/storms will depend on this
interaction, so will err toward climatology until there is better
agreement one way or the other. Temperatures should remain above
normal Thu through Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 715 PM Saturday...

Confidence remains high that all central NC terminal forecast sites
will remain VFR through at least Sun morning, as high pressure which
is sitting over the region pushes slowly east and offshore. A
passing upper level disturbance will bring a batch of mid clouds
based at 8-12 thsd ft over the area through tonight, but otherwise
just high thin clouds are expected. Late in the TAF valid period,
scattered showers and storms are expected, mainly after 19z, with
another round of mid clouds and scattered to broken VFR cumulus. FAY
is the location most likely to be impacted, with a lesser threat at
other sites where storms will be more isolated. Winds will be fairly
light but frequent gusts around 20 kts are likely Sun 14z-22z, and
stronger gusts are possible in and near any storms late Sun.

Looking beyond 00z Mon, the threat of a few storms will persist
mainly at FAY until around 07z Mon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
likely to hold at all sites through Thu, with low chances for
showers and storms. -GIH
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hartfield