-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
360
FXUS61 KRLX 191030
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few
rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Dry and mostly
quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM Thursday

Weak surface high pressure shifting toward the area from the
north will not be enough to hold off any chances for shower
and/or thunderstorm activity this afternoon as the upper level
low still influences the region. Around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will
support a few thunderstorms just as yesterday, however the
potential should only be confined to mainly the higher
elevations, but we cannot rule out a few rogue showers/storms
across the lowlands mainly along the Ohio River and east of
there.

Once the afternoon Cu field scatters out by late afternoon
chances of any activity will diminish along with most cloud
coverage for the early evening as upper level ridging moves in
from the west. A quiet night will follow with very weak surface
flow and mostly clear skies which will cause for another
potential day for dense fog, especially across the mountain
valleys.

With plenty of breaks in cloud coverage today temperatures will
be allowed to climb to above seasonable, sort of like
yesterday, but not expecting anywhere to reach above the 80`s
with the mountains staying in the 70`s and 60`s for the peaks
and ridges.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Friday may start with dense morning fog, but not a lot of
shallow moisture, so low stratus will not be very prevalent nor
persistent. A small mid/upper-level short wave ridge over the
middle Ohio Valley brings mainly dry weather on Friday. Models
do show sufficient low level /h85/ moisture to, together with
diurnal heating, provide enough destabilization for the pop up
afternoon shower or thunderstorm, at least in the mountains.

The forecast continues to trend muddier for the start of the
weekend. A developing gradient with high pressure anchored down
the east side of the Appalachians, and weak low pressure
approaching from the west, sets up southerly low level weak warm
advection flow. With several mid/upper-level short wave troughs
riding over top of the ridge, and coming down its east side, at
least patchy cloud is likely, and central guidance reflects a
chance for at least diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal, with lowland highs up
around 90. RH percentages will drop into the 30s across much of
the area Friday afternoon, with a few 20s even possible. RH
percentages are now forecast to be in the 30s and 40s on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Brief, weak surface high pressure, together with a small
mid/upper-level short wave ridge, should keep Sunday mainly dry.

The ridge continues moving east Sunday night and Monday, opening
the door for more short wave energy to arrive from the west.
Southerly warm, moist advection low level flow reestablishes,
and showers and thunderstorms are possible starting overnight
Sunday night.

The chance for showers, and mainly diurnal thunderstorms, then
continues until there is enough short wave amplification in the
east to drive a surface cold front through, probably around
midweek next week.

After another hot afternoon on Sunday, high temperatures
gradually settle back toward normal amid the unsettled weather
during the next work week, while lows remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Models have hit hard on dense fog this morning covering most of
the area. Mostly clear skies and calm wind has allowed for some
patchy fog to develop which may become dense at times affecting
PKB/CRW/EKN. Any fog will lift and scatter out by 13-14Z, most
of the concern is low stratus which is bouncing in/out as CIGs.
An afternoon Cu deck may develop today but will likely scatter
out quickly by the late afternoon becoming mostly clear by the
evening. High pressure builds in from the north but there will
remain some chances for showers and/or thunderstorms mainly
along the mountains possibly affecting BKW/EKN/CKB during the
mid afternoon, but the threat will quickly diminish by the late
afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR low stratus CIGs will lift and scatter
out by 14-17Z. For the overnight, expect potential for more
dense fog as the same conditions will be in place, especially
across the mountain (eastern) sites. Went ahead and added dense
fog to all sites for now but will have to be analyzed better on
later shifts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 09/19/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    H    L    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...

IFR possible in low stratus or fog through Friday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JZ