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901
FXUS61 KRLX 131612
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry today. Chance for
showers and isolated storms on Friday. An extended stretch of
hot weather will begin late this weekend through next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...

No changes needed at this time.

As of 120 AM Thursday...

Any patchy valley fog mixes out shortly after daybreak this
morning.

Surface high pressure remains entrenched across much of the eastern
half of the country. Weak high zonal flow aloft is yielding pretty
paltry low level southwest flow with low level moisture slow to
increase through the day as a result. Even with daytime highs rising
to the upper 80s to lower 90 across the lower elevations, it won`t
feel that oppressive yet with dew points still in the upper
50s/lower 60s. Couldn`t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near
the mountains this afternoon, but just about everyone should stay
dry until cold frontal passage Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1209 PM Thursday...

In a post-frontal airmass Saturday, summerlike warmth will coincide
with a comfortable feel. Dew points will be in the 40s to 50s
Saturday with air temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. This
will give us a brief reprieve from the humidity. As an upper-
level ridge expands over the eastern 1/3 of the country Sunday,
temperatures will be on the rise and dew points will return to
the 60s for most. Expect highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
Sunday with largely dry conditions.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1209 PM Thursday...

The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen over the East
heading into the new work week, which means the summerlike warmth
and humidity will continue through most of next week. There is also
the potential for a heat wave. Something to keep in mind is that CRW
has not officially hit 90 degrees yet, and while there is a high
likelihood that could occur next week, there still remains some
uncertainty. Models are undecided in the placement of the upper-
level ridge axis; the GFS predicts the ridge axis will be a little
farther east than the ECMWF. The strength and duration of the heat
will highly depend on the location of the ridge axis; if it ends up
being farther east like the GFS is showing, we could have more
clouds with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
would also lead to slightly lower temperatures over our region.

While we continue to wait for models to come into better
agreement, it is still important to prepare for the heat. There
is a high potential for most of next week to be excessively hot,
especially Monday through Thursday. It may be a good idea to
stock up on water and other hydration fluids before the heat
arrives, and make sure to put other heat safety tips into
practice by taking frequent breaks in the air conditioning and
checking on sensitive groups.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Thursday...

Patchy valley fog near EKN/CKB/CRW/HTS mixes out early this morning,
otherwise mostly clear skies through the period with light winds.

Could see some additional patchy fog tonight, but chances too low to
include at the end of the 12Z TAFs for now.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy river valley fog possible after 07Z
tonight.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Saturday morning.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP