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116
FXUS61 KRLX 221241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
841 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level
ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and
storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 840 AM Saturday...

The forecast largely remains on track in this morning`s update,
but we`ve made some slight adjustments to forecast temperatures
to better reflect current observations.

As of 1255 AM Saturday...

A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal
temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not
been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys
have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the
Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Models indicating a small chance
of afternoon thunderstorms along the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Sunday will be hot and humid once again as surface high pressure
remains underneath increasingly neutral flow aloft due to the
high pressure center pushing off to the Southwest CONUS.
Temperatures will be about 3-6 degrees less hot than Saturday,
due to an approaching system from the west. As a result, some
high-level clouds will begin moving in throughout the morning,
gradually lowering during the afternoon. Temperatures across the
lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat
indices in the same ballpark. The mountains however, will range
between the mid 70s (highest elevations) to the upper 80s
(lowest elevations and mountain valleys).

A quick-hitting cold front will then approach from the midwest by
afternoon with a shortwave trough knocking on the door of our
western periphery. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
increase from west to east over the course of the afternoon. PoPs
increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening
as the cold front pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms, a
few could be severe, will pack damaging winds, some small hail
and heavy rainfall as models project precipitable water values
between 1.50" and 2.00". CAPE looks to be between 1,000 and
3,000 J/KG ahead of the front in the afternoon with sfc to 500MB
shear approaching 40 kts.

Some localized to isolated water issues could be possible with the
heaviest downpours within these storms, but not overly concerned
with flooding as the area could use the rain. Both a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms has been hoisted for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

Cold front will be moving east out of the area Monday morning
allowing for less sultry temperatures. Middle to upper 80s
across the lowlands, with 70s to low 80s in the mountains; the
more lofty locations such as Snowshoe and Kumbrabow will likely
stay in the upper 60s. Some residual showers may linger in the
mountains during the morning hours and early afternoon, but will
largely be tapering off as a brief stint of high pressure
builds in.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
an upper-level trough and cold front Wednesday into Thursday.
The heat also looks to return Tuesday and Wednesday with
southerly to southwesterly return flow.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 AM Saturday...

Patchy river valley fog will dissipate early this morning.
There is also a small chance of afternoon thunderstorms along
the mountains, but chances are too small to include in the TAFs.
Outside of these 2 items, expect VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Afternoon thunderstorms may or may not
effect TAF sites in the mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...RPY