Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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367 FXUS61 KRLX 172341 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 741 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek. Mainly dry/quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... A low pressure system will meander over the Carolinas for the next couple of days, while it continues to weaken and move east, off the Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, periods of light rain showers, away from its center, will spread across the area tonight and Wednesday. Some light rain main sneak into the lowlands from time to time. However, rainfall accumulations will be minimal, with localized 0.25 inches across the higher terrain with lesser amounts elsewhere. Instability looks marginal for Wednesday under abundant cloudiness and cool temperatures. Models are not handling well light precipitation with this system. Therefore, will keep slight chance PoPs across the lowlands, and chance PoPs along the eastern mountains. Also, believe guidance is overforecasting thunder. Removed thunder from forecast due to the lack of a kicker for Wednesday. High humidity will keep tonight`s lows ranging from the lower 60s across the lowlands, into the mid 50s northeast mountains. Clouds and cooling showers will suppress afternoon heating, providing about normal temperatures on Wednesday. Used the most representative NBM 50th percentile for temperatures and dewpoints through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Tuesday... Closed low pressure system becomes an open wave disturbance Thursday night as it gains some momentum moving northeastward. As a result, precipitation chances will wane west to east with higher probabilities of 20-30% along and east of the mountains. Temperatures will start to increase Thursday, depending on cloud cover, with highs around or a few degrees above normal. The lowlands will see temperatures around 80 up to the mid 80s; the mountains will range anywhere from the mid 60s to upper 70s dur to clouds. Relative humidity values will continue to stay above fire weather criteria Thursday due to abundant moisture in the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area by afternoon though as shortwave disturbances on the back side of the trough move across the area. Additional light rainfall amounts are likely with the highest amounts across our northeastern mountains and foothills. Precipitation will taper off from west to east late Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours, even as the disturbance meanders just to our northeast over NY/PA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Tuesday... High pressure nudges in on Friday reintroducing drier weather, mostly clear skies and much warmer temperatures. This trend will last through the weekend with mid to high 80s to around 90 across the lowlands each day; upper 60s to lower 80s in the mountains. RH percentages could drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s across a bulk of the territory both Friday through Sunday. Winds look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines though. Rain chances return possibly on Monday with a low pressure system approaching from the west allowing for slight chances of showers across the area by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will also be about 3-5 degrees less warm, but still above normal. RH values look to recover as well on Monday, most locations are forecasted to get back into the 40s and 50s by the afternoon. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 730 PM Tuesday... Expect widespread MVFR ceilings to overspread the area, particularly after 06Z, with areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings across the higher terrain. After 15Z, expect gradual improvement to widespread MVFR mainly across the higher terrain, with mainly VFR conditions taking hold across much of the lowland sites. In addition to lowering ceilings, occasional showers could produce brief MVFR/IFR conditions, with shower activity decreasing through the day Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...SL