-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
429
FXUS63 KSGF 202318
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
618 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend ahead into the weekend with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to
  105 by late weekend into early next week.

- Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (10 to 30%) Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

- Hot and humid conditions persist into next week, with the
  return of daily afternoon/evening scattered thunderstorm
  chances (10 to 30%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Current mesoanalysis shows that an upper-level ridge has
built back over the region today. A stationary front separating
the warm, moist air mass over us and a colder air mass to the
north has begun to push north into Nebraska and Iowa as a warm
front this morning. A field of fair weather cumulus clouds is
developing south of this front. As has been the case throughout this
entire week, hot and humid conditions will prevail, although
unlike days earlier this week, no precipitation is expected.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid-80s, and are
expected to reach highs in the upper 80s to around 90 in central
Missouri. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s support heat
indices in the low 90s this afternoon.

Heading into tonight, calm weather continues, with lows in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tomorrow paints a similar picture of hot and
humid conditions, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s, and
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Heat indices climb into the low 90s
before nightfall, with lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Due to the ridge over our area, temperatures will continue to be
hot on Saturday. Precipitation chances return Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a shortwave through moves through the
area. This allows a cold front to sag south towards our area.
PoPs are highest in central Missouri, as uncertainty about the
coverage and southern extent of these storms remains. Any storms
that do form will be pulse-like in nature due to a lack of
adequate wind shear. Precipitable water vapor ranges from
1.5-2" across the region during this time, so the primary
hazards from these storms will be lightning and locally heavy
rainfall.

From Sunday through Tuesday, high temperatures begin to climb into
the low to mid-90s. Dewpoint temperatures begin to reach into the
70s as well. In tandem, these conditions support heat indices
from 100-105, possibly even higher. Nighttime lows of 70-75 will
do little to provide relief from the heat. The Climate
Prediction Center`s 8-14 day temperature outlook continues to
signal 60-70% chances for above average temperature into early
July. As always, make sure to practice heat safety, such as
staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks if working outside.

As an upper-level ridge builds over the Great Plains early next
week, our area will all under a regime of northwest flow. This
will lead to a pattern of more active weather next week, with
10-30% chances for thunderstorms returning during the afternoon
and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday with scattered
cumulus as well as high clouds persisting. Cumulus bases will
remain in the 4-5 kft range, thus there are no concerns for MVFR
ceilings.

There will be widely scattered high-based showers around
tonight, however rain drops are not expected to reach the
ground (virga).

There is very low (< 20%) potential for MVFR visibility again
late tonight and early Friday morning around Branson. We have
opted to keep this out of the Branson TAF at this point given
the presence of cloud cover.

Surface winds will remain light out of the south to southeast
through Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 21:
KVIH: 96/1952

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KJLN: 98/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012
KJLN: 101/2012
KVIH: 100/9999


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Kenny