-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
608
FXUS64 KSJT 230833
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
333 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Much cooler today...

The main story in the short term forecast will be how much cooler
the area is behind a cold front that sparked showers and
thunderstorms yesterday and continue early this morning. Highs
today will be mainly in the 70s. We will continue to have
southwest flow in the mid and upper levels to start the day, with
northerly flow at the surface. This will give us mostly cloudy
skies to start the day, as the current showers and thunderstorms
exit the area during the early morning hours. As the upper trough
axis slowly moves over the area and to the east, northwesterly
drying flow will move in aloft, and we should see slow clearing
during the afternoon from the northwest to southeast. As the cold
front attempts to retreat back to the north tonight, models do
show at least a 20% chance for additional showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two this evening, so have kept some slight chance
PoPs in the forecast for this. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler, mainly in the low to mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...Cool and wet pattern through Wednesday with drier and warmer
conditions expected by the end of the work week...

Overnight Monday into Tuesday, the upper level shortwave trough
associated with the primary cold front will exit off to our
northeast, leaving our area in brief zonal flow. Some HREF members
are picking up on convection forming across our central counties
as an embedded shortwave impulse tracks across the area. Have
capped PoPs during this timeframe in the chance category as
certainty with this development is limited but still possible as
the earlier cold front is not expected to scour out any moisture
(as shown by forecasted PWats in the 1.4+ inches range). The
better chances for showers and storms look to come later in the
day on Tuesday into early Wednesday. An upper low is expected to
drop south out of the Northern Great Plains and into the Central
Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley. This will send another upper level
trough axis through the region. An attendant cold front is also
expected to swing south through the area during this Tuesday/early
Wednesday timeframe. The NAM and many of the European ensemble
members seem set on a potentially wet frontal passage with the GFS
ensemble members painting a much drier picture. Will keep with
the blended solution for now, showing chance PoPs mainly through
12Z Wednesday. Any convective activity looks to wane through the
day on Wednesday as the front continues to push well south and
east of our area. With the rain chances and continued high amounts
of moisture across the area, temperatures will remain fairly
consistent Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Models seem to be in good agreement that much drier air will
begin to filter in at the surface behind the cold front Wednesday,
leading to a dry pattern for the end of the work week and
weekend. Surface flow will generally stay out of the north through
this timeframe, limiting moisture return. The aforementioned
upper low is expected to become cut-off from the main flow during
this timeframe and will stay in the general vicinity of the
Southern Plains. How the track of the potential tropical system
across the gulf impacts this remains to be seen but consensus for
now is that we will stay to the west of the low in an area of weak
subsidence. High temperatures for the late week/weekend timeframe
will be on a steady upward trend as the 850 mb thermal ridge
begins to slowly work its way back into the area. Daytime highs
will approach 90 degrees again by the weekend. Overnight lows are
expected to be on the cool side in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

SHRA and TSRA continue to affect the KABI area. Farther south,
much less coverage of SHRA with no TSRA currently. Will continue
at least VCSH for southern terminals, but confidence is lower in
better coverage of TSRA farther south given the current trends.
Still expect CIGs to deteriorate into MVFR, and likely IFR between
now and 12Z at all sites. Expect these ceilings to then improve
gradually throughout the day tomorrow, with most sites back in the
VFR category by 00Z or a couple hours earlier. Winds will be out
of the north at all sites within the next hour or so, and should
remain northerly at 10 knots or less through 00Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     77  62  86  64 /  40  20  40  40
San Angelo  78  64  87  66 /  50  20  40  30
Junction    83  66  88  65 /  30  20  40  30
Brownwood   79  63  86  63 /  50  20  40  40
Sweetwater  77  63  86  65 /  20  20  30  30
Ozona       78  66  86  65 /  40  20  20  20
Brady       78  65  86  65 /  40  20  40  40
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20