-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
506
FXUS62 KTAE 170535
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

PoPs and temps were nudged a little to take into account current
trends. A line of showers/storms currently moving across the FL
Big Bend and south Georgia will continue westward over the next
couple of hours. A gradual weakening is expected as the line moves
into a more stable environment.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Earlier this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms were
slowly moving northwest from along the Nature and Forgotten Coasts.
Cloud cover has been increasing through the day as rain and storm
coverage increased. The 12z sounding this morning had PWATs at 1.8"
and indicated enough instability for thunderstorms to develop that
could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. PoPs today
range from about 30% in Southwest-Central Georgia, to 60-80% for
our Florida counties. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to diminish this evening with slight chances for rain during the
overnight hours.

Upper level high pressure will heavily influence our weather for the
start of the work week with shifting our surface winds to be
easterly with gusts up to around 20 mph. The easterly shift will
usher in drier air, bringing humidity levels down to the low 40%s by
the afternoon, limiting PoPs to about 30% for our Florida counties,
and lower percentages further inland.

Temperatures during this period will be in the mid 90s for Monday
afternoon, with morning lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

We will be sandwiched between two large features during this
period, the first being both upper level and surface high
pressure over the east. The second being a tropical low to our
southwest, in the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. This will lead to
a tightening pressure gradient over the region and bring
breezy easterly winds to the region. These easterly winds, along
with a drier airmass, should suppress showers and thunderstorms
over southwest GA and southeast AL. Guidance still tries to show
some development over the FL counties, and in particular south of
I-10. This would likely be due to any seabreeze that potentially
collides with the easterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Dry weather should persist into Wednesday with our eyes then
turning to the tropical wave in the Atlantic Basin. The NHC
continues to highlight a large swath of potential development,
30%, that covers the GA and FL coasts, down to the Bahamas. It`s
too early to determine, what, if any, impacts will come from this
outside of the increased chances for rain and thunderstorms and
perhaps some heavy rain. The timing for this potential disturbance
is Thursday into Friday. We get past this, the Atlantic high
drifts to the south and the upper ridge will have weakened due to
the tropical disturbance. More typical like summertime weather and
convection is expected as flow gradually shifts to the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Diurnal SHRA and embedded TSRA have diminished. Expect VFR
this morning with the exception of DHN, where there is a strong
signal for fog and low clouds, with brief reductions to MVFR.
Today, expect VFR, with chances of SHRA/TSRA limited by dry air
aloft. Highest confidence is for VCTS at ECP, and it cannot be
ruled out at DHN, but potential was too low to include in the
TAF. Brisk easterly flow gets underway today as the pressure
gradient tightens. Winds may gust around 20 kts from the late
morning into the evening hours, and if confidence continues to
increase, will include this in more of the subsequent TAFs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Winds will shift to the east this evening and then hold through
at least Thursday. Look for fresh to strong easterly breezes due
to tightening pressure gradients since we will be situated between
strong high pressure off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast and a
deepening tropical low over the southwest Gulf. Small craft
advisory conditions are expected for much of the week ahead with
near gale force gusts possible. Seas will build in response as
well, especially for the waters west of Apalachicola. Easterly
flow will feature the familiar rhythm of nocturnal surges and
afternoon lulls.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mixing heights will be on the rise for the afternoons this week.
Easterly flow will be increasing, starting Monday, due to the ridge
of high pressure that will be to our northeast. Temperatures will be
in the 90s for the daily highs. The warm temperatures and elevated
transport winds around 15-20 mph will lead to high dispersions
(above 80 units) each afternoon through Wednesday. Minimum RH values
are above critical thresholds. Rain chances decrease through
midweek; however, rain chances do return heading into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Shower and thunderstorms have developed as expected this afternoon.
With the TLH sounding PWAT being at 1.83" this morning and the
current SPC mesoanalysis page now showing about 1.5" to 2.1" over
the region, the atmosphere has moistened quite nicely. The driest
air is over southwest GA, where storms have yet to really from.
The current formation of storms are along and southwest of the
line from about Coffee County, AL to Early County, GA, and then
dips all the way into the FL Big Bend. PWATs are highest here and
if we have training or slow moving storms, there is a risk for
intense rainfall rates within the core of heavier thunderstorms
which could lead to short-lived runoff issues. However, no
widespread or significant flooding is expected.

Rainfall, if any, from Monday through Wednesday will be
hydrologically insignificant. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
increase from Thursday through Saturday, once again posing the
risk of short-lived runoff issues stemming from intense rainfall
rates beneath the core of heavier thunderstorms. Riverine flooding
is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee   93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
Panama City   92  76  92  76 /  20  20  30  20
Dothan        93  71  90  73 /  30  10  10   0
Albany        94  71  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Valdosta      94  71  93  72 /  10   0  20  10
Cross City    93  71  93  71 /  10  10  50  10
Apalachicola  88  78  88  78 /  20  20  40  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...KR