Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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936 FXUS65 KABQ 202349 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 549 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A very active monsoon like weather pattern will continue tonight through early next week with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall remains likely, especially from slow moving or stationary strong thunderstorms. Tonight`s strongest storms are forecast over the northwest third of the state. Mainly showers are forecast for much of the forecast area Friday morning. Strong thunderstorms return Friday afternoon to locations from the Sangre de Cristo mountain southward along the Sandia and Manzano mountains and central highlands from Clines Corners south to Ruidoso. Then a swath of light to moderate rain following a slow moving cold front will gradually sag through the northwest half of the state Friday night. The weekend will feature a more traditional type monsoon pattern with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms forming over the mountains and moving off to the east and northeast. High temperatures will remain below average for the date through Friday, warming to near averages for late June over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Debris clouds are slowing today`s surface heating somewhat with storms just starting to fire over the Sangre de Cristo and Chuska mountains. Storm motion is to the northeast around 25 mph. The more skilled hi-res models are suggestive of strong convection from northeast AZ moving and developing east-northeastward to as far east as the Jemez mountains early this evening after a strong east canyon wind develops into the ABQ metro and southeast winds at Santa Fe northeastward to Los Alamos. This convection is progged to continue through much of tonight with the highest chances for flash flooding once again in and near Santa Clara canyon with possible rises on the Rio Chama near Hernandez once again tonight. This convection gradually diminishes as it sags east and southeast through the RGV and points east Friday morning, setting the stage for strong storms to fire Friday afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Gallinas, Sacramento and Capitan mountains. The strongest storms will focus over the Sacramento and Capitan mountains Friday afternoon as a wave/speed max associated with Tropical Depression Alberto slides around the Bermuda high circulation and into southeast NM. Latest HREF progs a 2"+ rain bullseye several miles east of Capitan Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Storm motion over Lincoln and Chaves counties is forecast between 25 to 30 kts Friday afternoon into the early evening. At the same time, a surface cold front associated with an unseasonably deep trough over CA/NV is progged to move in from the northwest Friday night. A band of light to moderate rainfall will follow this frontal feature through the northwest half of the state Friday night. If the hi- res models are in the ballpark, a half to three quarters of an inch of rain for the ABQ metro is possible Friday night through Saturday morning. West Mesa of ABQ could end up as green as it once was in the early 1940s in a week or so. At any rate, wetting rainfall for portions of the mid RGV looks highly likely Friday night into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Elongated Bermuda high remains progged to reach out over NM/AZ during the day Saturday with steering flow aloft shifting to more southwesterly over the forecast area. NAM12 indicative of a deformation (atmospheric stretching) axis setting up from southwest to northeast across the state. This stretching adds weak lift to daytime heating to get convection going from the Gila east and northeast to the central mountain chain northeast to San Miguel, Harding, and Union counties. Models suggestive of convection going well past sunset Saturday with mid level stretching continuing into Saturday night. By Sunday, low level moisture remains in place and what seems to be an extension of the Bermuda and not the monsoon high remains overhead in response to the anomalous convection over Mexico. Steering flow becomes more west- northwest Sunday afternoon and that results in chances for strong to severe storms in northeast NM and the potential for slow moving storms over the Gila. Monsoon high pretender in the form of the Bermuda high is then progged to shift westward over AZ Tuesday and Wednesday with northwest to northerly steering flow aloft developing during the middle of next week. At some point during the last few days of June or during the first few days of July, this upper high will shift back eastward with its associated Gulf and Atlantic basin moisture related convection and the monsoon high will develop over NM or AZ according to the ECMWF ensemble at some point in mid July. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Abundant moisture over the region with isolated to scattered RA/TS impacting terminals. Specifically KFMN, KGUP, and KROW seeing the most activity with TEMPO groups in TAFs with Mention of TS/RA, along with reductions to VIS and lowering CIGS. TS/RA will remain in and around these terminals through 01-02Z, becoming VCSH afterwards. For remaining terminals, including KABQ, KLVS, KSAF, and KTCC, VCSH/RA remains in the TAF through ~06Z. Showery activity will be possible through the overnight and into tomorrow morning. The main slug of moisture will continue moving in across NM through the evening and overnight with continued low cloud decks at BKN to OVC, with possible instances of MVFR CIGS for all terminals. Winds will remain breezy 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through the evening and into the overnight timeframe, generally out of the southeast to south. Terminals with VCSH/VCTS will experience VRB winds at 15-25 knots with gusts to 40 knots possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain in place over the forecast area into early next week. As a result, near record dewpoint temperatures for late June will remain in place through the weekend, along with excellent chances for widespread wetting rainfall. Heavy rainfall on or near the Blue2/South Fork/Salt burn scars if forecast Friday afternoon where as much as 2" is possible. Friday`s steering flow will take these storms to the north around 25 mph. This monsoon like weather pattern continues into next week with daily rounds of afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring a swath of the forecast area from the Gila northeastward to Union county. Steering flow aloft will send the showers and storms to the east and southeast next week. Slow moving storms south of approximately U.S. Highway 60 next week remain in the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 88 62 89 / 70 80 70 20 Dulce........................... 48 81 47 84 / 70 70 80 20 Cuba............................ 56 80 55 84 / 60 80 80 40 Gallup.......................... 52 89 53 87 / 70 60 70 40 El Morro........................ 58 84 56 82 / 40 70 80 60 Grants.......................... 55 85 53 86 / 60 70 80 70 Quemado......................... 59 84 59 84 / 20 60 70 80 Magdalena....................... 61 78 62 84 / 40 60 50 60 Datil........................... 59 78 60 82 / 40 70 50 70 Reserve......................... 54 88 56 90 / 20 40 60 70 Glenwood........................ 64 91 71 94 / 20 50 50 60 Chama........................... 46 76 47 79 / 70 80 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 60 76 59 82 / 70 80 70 50 Pecos........................... 57 73 57 84 / 80 80 60 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 76 48 80 / 40 70 60 40 Red River....................... 44 69 47 74 / 40 70 50 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 72 42 78 / 20 60 40 30 Taos............................ 53 81 54 86 / 40 60 50 30 Mora............................ 51 75 51 83 / 50 80 40 40 Espanola........................ 62 85 60 90 / 50 70 70 30 Santa Fe........................ 59 76 59 84 / 70 80 70 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 79 60 87 / 60 70 70 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 84 65 89 / 60 70 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 85 66 90 / 50 50 60 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 87 64 92 / 60 50 60 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 85 64 91 / 60 50 60 40 Belen........................... 64 88 64 92 / 30 50 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 86 65 92 / 50 60 60 30 Bosque Farms.................... 62 87 62 92 / 40 50 50 40 Corrales........................ 66 87 64 92 / 50 60 60 40 Los Lunas....................... 64 88 64 92 / 40 50 50 40 Placitas........................ 64 83 64 87 / 50 60 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 66 86 64 91 / 50 60 60 30 Socorro......................... 68 88 69 95 / 40 50 40 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 77 60 82 / 50 70 60 40 Tijeras......................... 58 80 58 85 / 50 70 60 40 Edgewood........................ 56 78 56 86 / 40 70 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 79 56 86 / 40 70 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 55 73 55 82 / 50 80 40 30 Mountainair..................... 56 78 57 85 / 40 60 40 40 Gran Quivira.................... 57 78 58 86 / 40 70 30 40 Carrizozo....................... 64 81 63 89 / 60 70 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 72 56 80 / 70 90 20 30 Capulin......................... 56 75 57 84 / 10 50 5 20 Raton........................... 57 79 57 87 / 10 50 20 20 Springer........................ 59 80 59 90 / 30 60 20 20 Las Vegas....................... 57 71 56 83 / 80 80 40 30 Clayton......................... 62 80 65 91 / 10 30 0 10 Roy............................. 60 74 61 87 / 50 70 10 20 Conchas......................... 64 81 65 94 / 50 60 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 62 76 62 90 / 50 70 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 64 82 66 95 / 30 40 5 0 Clovis.......................... 64 83 64 92 / 30 40 5 0 Portales........................ 65 83 64 92 / 30 40 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 81 64 92 / 50 50 5 5 Roswell......................... 69 89 69 96 / 70 50 5 5 Picacho......................... 62 78 60 88 / 80 80 10 30 Elk............................. 59 78 56 87 / 80 80 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>206-211-214-215-226- 229. Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...99