115
FXUS65 KABQ 202152
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
352 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A very active monsoon like weather pattern will continue tonight
through early next week with rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall remains likely, especially from slow moving
or stationary strong thunderstorms. Tonight`s strongest storms
are forecast over the northwest third of the state. Mainly showers
are forecast for much of the forecast area Friday morning. Strong
thunderstorms return Friday afternoon to locations from the
Sangre de Cristo mountain southward along the Sandia and Manzano
mountains and central highlands from Clines Corners south to
Ruidoso. Then a swath of light to moderate rain following a slow
moving cold front will gradually sag through the northwest half of
the state Friday night. The weekend will feature a more traditional
type monsoon pattern with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
forming over the mountains and moving off to the east and northeast.
High temperatures will remain below average for the date through
Friday, warming to near averages for late June over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Debris clouds are slowing today`s surface heating somewhat with
storms just starting to fire over the Sangre de Cristo and Chuska
mountains. Storm motion is to the northeast around 25 mph. The more
skilled hi-res models are suggestive of strong convection from
northeast AZ moving and developing east-northeastward to as far
east as the Jemez mountains early this evening after a strong east
canyon wind develops into the ABQ metro and southeast winds at
Santa Fe northeastward to Los Alamos. This convection is progged
to continue through much of tonight with the highest chances for
flash flooding once again in and near Santa Clara canyon with
possible rises on the Rio Chama near Hernandez once again tonight.
This convection gradually diminishes as it sags east and southeast
through the RGV and points east Friday morning, setting the stage
for strong storms to fire Friday afternoon from the Sangre de
Cristo, Sandia, Manzano, Gallinas, Sacramento and Capitan mountains.
The strongest storms will focus over the Sacramento and Capitan
mountains Friday afternoon as a wave/speed max associated with
Tropical Depression Alberto slides around the Bermuda high
circulation and into southeast NM. Latest HREF progs a 2"+ rain
bullseye several miles east of Capitan Friday afternoon into early
Friday evening. Storm motion over Lincoln and Chaves counties is
forecast between 25 to 30 kts Friday afternoon into the early
evening. At the same time, a surface cold front associated with an
unseasonably deep trough over CA/NV is progged to move in from
the northwest Friday night. A band of light to moderate rainfall
will follow this frontal feature through the northwest half of the
state Friday night. If the hi- res models are in the ballpark, a
half to three quarters of an inch of rain for the ABQ metro is
possible Friday night through Saturday morning. West Mesa of ABQ
could end up as green as it once was in the early 1940s in a week
or so. At any rate, wetting rainfall for portions of the mid RGV
looks highly likely Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Elongated Bermuda high remains progged to reach out over NM/AZ
during the day Saturday with steering flow aloft shifting to more
southwesterly over the forecast area. NAM12 indicative of a
deformation (atmospheric stretching) axis setting up from
southwest to northeast across the state. This stretching adds weak
lift to daytime heating to get convection going from the Gila
east and northeast to the central mountain chain northeast to San
Miguel, Harding, and Union counties. Models suggestive of convection
going well past sunset Saturday with mid level stretching continuing
into Saturday night. By Sunday, low level moisture remains in
place and what seems to be an extension of the Bermuda and not the
monsoon high remains overhead in response to the anomalous
convection over Mexico. Steering flow becomes more west- northwest
Sunday afternoon and that results in chances for strong to severe
storms in northeast NM and the potential for slow moving storms
over the Gila. Monsoon high pretender in the form of the Bermuda
high is then progged to shift westward over AZ Tuesday and
Wednesday with northwest to northerly steering flow aloft
developing during the middle of next week. At some point during
the last few days of June or during the first few days of July,
this upper high will shift back eastward with its associated Gulf
and Atlantic basin moisture related convection and the monsoon
high will develop over NM or AZ according to the ECMWF ensemble at
some point in mid July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Abundant moisture over the region and isolated SHRA this morning
will give way to increasing coverage of SHRA/TS this afternoon.
Near full sunshine across northwest NM with unstable conditions
will allow activity along and west of the Cont Divide to erupt by
1pm then move slowly northeast around KGUP and KFMN. This activity
may last for the entire night but with the greatest impact period
between 4pm and 8pm with locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and
hail. Slower convective initiation is expected for areas along and
east of the central mt chain with more periods of rain, showers,
and low stratus through tonight. A slug of moderate stratiform to
locally heavy rainfall is still expected to move north along the
central mt chain from near KSRR to KCQC and KLVS overnight thru
Friday morning. This activity will have periods of IFR stratus
and patchy fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Gulf of Mexico moisture will remain in place over the forecast
area into early next week. As a result, near record dewpoint
temperatures for late June will remain in place through the
weekend, along with excellent chances for widespread wetting
rainfall. Heavy rainfall on or near the Blue2/South Fork/Salt
burn scars if forecast Friday afternoon where as much as 2" is
possible. Friday`s steering flow will take these storms to the
north around 25 mph. This monsoon like weather pattern continues
into next week with daily rounds of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms favoring a swath of the forecast area from the Gila
northeastward to Union county. Steering flow aloft will send the
showers and storms to the east and southeast next week. Slow
moving storms south of approximately U.S. Highway 60 next week
remain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  88  62  89 /  70  80  70  20
Dulce...........................  48  81  47  84 /  70  70  80  20
Cuba............................  56  80  55  84 /  60  80  80  40
Gallup..........................  52  89  53  87 /  70  60  70  40
El Morro........................  58  84  56  82 /  40  70  80  60
Grants..........................  55  85  53  86 /  60  70  80  70
Quemado.........................  59  84  59  84 /  20  60  70  80
Magdalena.......................  61  78  62  84 /  40  60  50  60
Datil...........................  59  78  60  82 /  40  70  50  70
Reserve.........................  54  88  56  90 /  20  40  60  70
Glenwood........................  64  91  71  94 /  20  50  50  60
Chama...........................  46  76  47  79 /  70  80  80  40
Los Alamos......................  60  76  59  82 /  70  80  70  50
Pecos...........................  57  73  57  84 /  80  80  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  47  76  48  80 /  40  70  60  40
Red River.......................  44  69  47  74 /  40  70  50  40
Angel Fire......................  40  72  42  78 /  20  60  40  30
Taos............................  53  81  54  86 /  40  60  50  30
Mora............................  51  75  51  83 /  50  80  40  40
Espanola........................  62  85  60  90 /  50  70  70  30
Santa Fe........................  59  76  59  84 /  70  80  70  40
Santa Fe Airport................  61  79  60  87 /  60  70  70  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  84  65  89 /  60  70  60  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  85  66  90 /  50  50  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  87  64  92 /  60  50  60  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  85  64  91 /  60  50  60  40
Belen...........................  64  88  64  92 /  30  50  50  40
Bernalillo......................  66  86  65  92 /  50  60  60  30
Bosque Farms....................  62  87  62  92 /  40  50  50  40
Corrales........................  66  87  64  92 /  50  60  60  40
Los Lunas.......................  64  88  64  92 /  40  50  50  40
Placitas........................  64  83  64  87 /  50  60  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  66  86  64  91 /  50  60  60  30
Socorro.........................  68  88  69  95 /  40  50  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  77  60  82 /  50  70  60  40
Tijeras.........................  58  80  58  85 /  50  70  60  40
Edgewood........................  56  78  56  86 /  40  70  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  79  56  86 /  40  70  50  40
Clines Corners..................  55  73  55  82 /  50  80  40  30
Mountainair.....................  56  78  57  85 /  40  60  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  57  78  58  86 /  40  70  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  64  81  63  89 /  60  70  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  72  56  80 /  70  90  20  30
Capulin.........................  56  75  57  84 /  10  50   5  20
Raton...........................  57  79  57  87 /  10  50  20  20
Springer........................  59  80  59  90 /  30  60  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  71  56  83 /  80  80  40  30
Clayton.........................  62  80  65  91 /  10  30   0  10
Roy.............................  60  74  61  87 /  50  70  10  20
Conchas.........................  64  81  65  94 /  50  60  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  62  76  62  90 /  50  70  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  64  82  66  95 /  30  40   5   0
Clovis..........................  64  83  64  92 /  30  40   5   0
Portales........................  65  83  64  92 /  30  40   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  81  64  92 /  50  50   5   5
Roswell.........................  69  89  69  96 /  70  50   5   5
Picacho.........................  62  78  60  88 /  80  80  10  30
Elk.............................  59  78  56  87 /  80  80  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ201>206-211-214-215-226-
229.

Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...42