Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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371 FXUS65 KABQ 171142 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 542 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Strong to severe storms are possible in central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Storms will be moving very quickly from southwest to northeast out ahead of a Pacific cold front that will sweep across the state from west to east. Fog may develop Wednesday morning in the east-central and southeast plains. Dry and breezy weather with seasonable temps will generally prevail Wednesday and Thursday, then storms return to the east on Friday as another Pacific storm impacts the area. Near to slightly below average temps are expected next weekend behind a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A potent 562dam 500mb low was south of Reno, NV per the 00Z upper air analysis, with strong winds aloft rounding the base of the low over SoCal and the Desert SW. Anomalously high PWATs reside across NM and although moisture advection has ended, surface dewpoint temperatures are an average 5+ degrees higher than 24hrs ago. The upper low is forecast to move east across the Great Basin today, while a jet maxima pulls northeast across the Desert SW and into the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Ascent associated with the jet maxima combined with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40kts, sbCAPE of 1500- 2000J/kg and LIs of -4 to -6C will be sufficient to produce a threat for severe storms this afternoon/evening and the SPC has much of central and eastern portions of our area in a marginal risk for the day 1 convective outlook. Both the latest HRRR and HREF are bullish with development this afternoon all the way south into northern Chaves County, with the highest probabilities for severe storms from Harding County south to De Baca County. The flash flood threat is fairly minimal today for area burn scars given storm motion of 30- 40mph or greater and a lack of a surface boundary to focus initiation. Training of storms is possible and would bring a higher flash flood threat, but probabilities are too low to justify a watch at this time. Otherwise, lee side troughing will be partially responsible for breezy to locally windy conditions today with south or southwest winds. PWATs will plummet tonight as a much drier airmass filters in from the west, with the upper level low pulling northeast out of the central Rockies. Areas of fog are possible across the east central and southeast plains early Wednesday morning where near-surface moisture will be slow to scour and a favorable moisture profile will be present with very dry air just above. Winds aloft will back on Wednesday as the next upper low dives south along the CA coast. Temperatures will be 1-3 degrees warmer Wednesday with pressure heights trending up. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be above normal east and below normal northwest. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry, southwest will will remain entrenched across the state Wednesday and Thursday, keeping the region dry. The downsloping breeze will keep temps a few to several degrees above average in the east while the west will be near to slightly below average during the day. However, dry air will help temps drop below average in low- lying areas in western NM each night. Dryline storms appear less likely than they have in previous days, but cannot be ruled out in the far southeast Thursday afternoon. Another seasonably deep trough will approach the area from the west Thursday and Friday. This combined with the amplification of the sub- tropical ridge over TX will draw Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM, setting the stage for an active Friday. Storms will focus along and east of the central mountain chain where some storms could be severe given ample wind shear (30-50KT) and decent instability. The base of the trough will eventually swing through Saturday, but the exact track remains a question mark. A track further south, as shown by the deterministic EC, would bring more precip. to northern and eastern NM, while a track further north, as shown by the deterministic GFS, would result in more wind and less precip. Either way, temps will cool behind a cold front next weekend. Temperatures could drop into the mid and low 30s Saturday night for communities in the western and northern high terrain. Another storm system may impact the northeastern portion of the state early to mid-next week, but confidence is low is given the range of solutions suggested by ensemble guidance. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 MVFR conditions are likely in sct/num showers and storms today, with short-lived IFR conditions possible. Strong/erratic wind gusts and small hail are likely in storms today, but damaging winds and large hail are possible this afternoon when a few storms become severe across north central and eastern NM. Otherwise, gusty south-southwest winds will prevail today with mostly VFR conditions. Low stratus/fog may develop tonight into Wednesday morning and impact KROW, but forecast confidence too low to include in TAF at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Lee side troughing and strong southwest flow over the region will bring breezy to locally windy conditions this afternoon/evening. Chances for wetting storms will favor northern and eastern NM today as an upper low moves east across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. A drier airmass will follow on Wed/Thu for much of the area prior to the next upper low, forecast to bring back chances for wetting storms to eastern NM Fri/Sat. The upper low will also bring dry and breezy to windy conditions to western and portions of central NM Fri/Sat. Cooler conditions will prevail over the weekend in the wake of the departing low, with a warming/drying trend forecast next week, although the latest medium range model solutions differ on the handling of an upstream trough. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 77 44 77 45 / 60 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 70 35 73 36 / 70 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 73 41 73 45 / 60 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 75 35 77 38 / 40 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 39 75 44 / 30 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 36 79 39 / 30 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 42 77 43 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 49 80 51 / 30 0 0 5 Datil........................... 74 42 78 45 / 30 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 76 42 80 42 / 30 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 53 82 53 / 30 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 36 68 37 / 70 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 72 48 74 51 / 60 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 72 45 74 47 / 60 10 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 71 43 / 60 20 0 0 Red River....................... 59 35 62 39 / 70 20 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 31 68 28 / 70 20 0 0 Taos............................ 71 38 75 39 / 60 20 0 0 Mora............................ 70 40 75 42 / 60 20 0 0 Espanola........................ 79 46 80 45 / 60 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 47 76 50 / 50 10 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 46 78 46 / 50 10 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 55 80 57 / 40 5 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 83 53 82 54 / 30 5 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 85 49 84 52 / 30 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 53 82 54 / 30 5 0 5 Belen........................... 86 50 86 50 / 20 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 83 51 83 52 / 40 5 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 85 47 84 48 / 20 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 83 51 83 52 / 30 5 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 85 49 85 49 / 20 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 80 52 79 54 / 40 5 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 82 52 83 53 / 30 5 0 5 Socorro......................... 88 54 88 55 / 20 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 49 76 49 / 40 5 0 5 Tijeras......................... 78 48 78 51 / 40 5 0 5 Edgewood........................ 78 45 79 46 / 50 5 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 41 81 38 / 40 5 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 75 45 77 47 / 50 10 0 5 Mountainair..................... 78 47 79 49 / 40 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 79 48 80 49 / 20 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 83 56 83 58 / 20 5 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 76 52 76 53 / 30 10 5 5 Capulin......................... 74 46 78 47 / 50 20 0 0 Raton........................... 77 44 82 44 / 50 20 0 0 Springer........................ 79 44 83 44 / 50 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 44 77 45 / 60 20 0 5 Clayton......................... 83 54 86 56 / 50 40 0 5 Roy............................. 77 50 81 49 / 70 30 0 5 Conchas......................... 86 54 88 53 / 70 30 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 82 54 86 54 / 60 20 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 88 58 90 56 / 60 50 0 5 Clovis.......................... 88 62 90 63 / 50 60 10 5 Portales........................ 89 62 92 63 / 40 50 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 87 57 90 57 / 50 20 0 5 Roswell......................... 93 65 96 65 / 20 20 0 5 Picacho......................... 86 56 89 57 / 30 10 5 5 Elk............................. 84 54 85 55 / 20 10 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11