Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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371 FXUS65 KABQ 182112 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 312 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions will continue through the evening. There is just enough moisture in place near the TX border for a few strong storms to fire up late this afternoon into the evening. The strongest activity may produce hail and damaging winds over Quay, Curry, and Roosevelt counties. A moist backdoor cold front will then move into eastern NM tonight with low clouds and more showers and storms over northeast NM. Much greater coverage of showers and storms is expected over eastern NM Wednesday with more severe storms possible. The focus will then shift to strong east and southeast winds across the area Wednesday night as moisture surges farther west into the Rio Grande Valley. Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is possible for central and eastern NM Thursday and Friday. Burn scar flash flooding is possible. High pressure will build over the area again by the weekend with warmer weather and more showers and storms possible each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A very active weather scenario will continue to manifest a plethora of hazards thru the short-term forecast and beyond. Wildfires around the Ruidoso area produced major impacts to air quality this morning. Another `Air Quality Alert` has been issued for the Lincoln County area tonight into Wednesday morning. Evacuation orders remain in place for the Ruidoso area while fire growth continues to perk up this afternoon. The latest orders are available on the Lincoln County govt website: https://www.lincolncountynm.gov Southwest winds will remain breezy areawide thru this evening with humidity values below 10% in many areas. While hot, dry, and breezy conditions plague a large part of the area today, there is also a Marginal Risk for severe storms along the TX/NM border counties late this afternoon thru the evening hours. Low level moisture is still lingering along the state line with backed low level winds. The 12Z HREF was rather enthusiastic about cells developing around the Caprock from Quay County south to Curry and Roosevelt counties by 4pm. This activity then strengthens quickly before moving east into west TX by 8pm. Finally, a moist backdoor cold front then surges southwest into northeast NM tonight with much deeper moisture. There is sufficient elevated instability and low level shear behind the front with abundant moisture and lift. This may be enough to force another round of storms over northeast NM overnight but confidence is fairly low. Widespread low stratus is also expected to develop in the wake of the front by sunrise over much of far eastern and northeast NM. Patchy fog is possible near the CO border as well. The frontal boundary will likely become draped along the central mt chain by sunrise with light gap winds developing in the RGV. This may even force low stratus development as far west as the central mt chain. Significantly deeper moisture in place Wednesday along with deep- layer veering wind profiles under stronger southwest flow aloft will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers and storms by the afternoon. Convective initiation timing will depend on how much low cloud cover is in place across the plains. Regardless, the bulk of CAMs show storms firing up by 2pm then moving northeast as discrete cells and clusters with locally heavy rainfall. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk area for eastern NM. Burn scar flash flooding may occur if storms can develop farther west along the central mt chain given PWAT values will be close to 1" and storms may develop over the same areas then move northeast. The most recent fires in the Ruidoso area will be a big concern for flooding and subsequent shifts may opt to post a Flash Flood Watch. By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will be building south down the Great Plains and allow any storm outflows over eastern NM to get a boost westward. The airmass will surge westward into the RGV with a period of strong to potentially damaging east winds in the ABQ metro area. The density gradient will be impressive with dewpoints surging from the 30s to near 60F at KABQ. A High Wind Watch has been posted for Wednesday evening with gusts over 60 mph possible. Another round of low stratus is likely for eastern NM with some patchy fog possible as well. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A potentially widespread rainfall event may unfold Thursday thru Friday as remnant tropical moisture surges northwest along a wave approaching from south TX and northeast Mexico. Deep-layer flow will become southeasterly over the area with rich moisture advection forcing PWATs over 1.25" for eastern NM. Widespread cloud cover may limit the extent of instability for storms along and east of the central mt chain Thursday. Nonetheless, models are latching onto a well-defined wave with widespread ascent and moderate to locally heavy QPF from the RGV eastward, mainly Thursday night and Friday. Max temps during this period will also be below normal. Burn scar flash flooding will remain a big concern, especially for the recent fires in the Ruidoso area. Upper level high pressure is then expected to build westward back into NM with much warmer temps for the weekend. Enough moisture will be lingering over the area for daily rounds of showers and storms around the high terrain and nearby highlands. Extended models show a 598dm H5 high center over central/western NM by Monday and Tuesday with potential for more Heat Advisories. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Southwest winds will increase thru the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 kt common at all terminals. Areas of smoke will reduce vsby downwind of fires around Ruidoso. A dryline near the TX/NM border will allow SHRA/TS to develop around 4pm today then move quickly east/southeast into west TX thru 9pm. Some of this activity may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds. A backdoor cold front will then surge southwest into eastern NM tonight with much higher moisture and gusty northeast winds. Widespread MVFR low cigs and SHRA/TS are likely behind the front for northeast NM after midnight. Light gap winds will develop in the RGV as well with gusts up to 25 kt from near KSAF to KABQ around sunrise. MVFR low cigs may develop as far west as the central mt chain but confidence is still low at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions today will improve thru late this evening as winds relax and humidity slowly rises. A strong backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM late tonight and usher in much better moisture to the central mountain chain for Wednesday. The coverage of showers and storms with wetting footprints will increase first over the plains. Another surge of moisture will shift west across NM Wednesday night and Thursday with more widespread showers and storms possible. Abundant moisture from a remnant tropical wave may then spread significant rainfall across all of central and eastern NM Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will increase the risk for burn scar flooding. Temps will also be much cooler. Another ridge of high pressure will begin building into the region by the weekend with warmer temps along with showers and storms for some parts of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 55 94 63 91 / 0 0 10 60 Dulce........................... 47 88 50 85 / 0 5 30 50 Cuba............................ 51 86 53 82 / 0 5 30 40 Gallup.......................... 45 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 40 El Morro........................ 50 88 56 83 / 0 0 10 40 Grants.......................... 46 91 53 84 / 0 5 20 40 Quemado......................... 50 89 57 84 / 0 0 20 30 Magdalena....................... 58 90 61 81 / 0 5 30 40 Datil........................... 52 87 59 79 / 0 0 20 40 Reserve......................... 45 92 51 90 / 0 0 10 20 Glenwood........................ 59 96 65 92 / 0 0 20 10 Chama........................... 45 82 47 79 / 0 10 40 60 Los Alamos...................... 61 82 60 77 / 0 20 50 60 Pecos........................... 51 79 54 74 / 0 40 80 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 79 47 77 / 5 30 60 50 Red River....................... 43 69 44 68 / 5 40 60 60 Angel Fire...................... 37 71 40 72 / 5 40 70 50 Taos............................ 48 85 51 82 / 0 20 60 40 Mora............................ 46 73 48 71 / 5 50 80 60 Espanola........................ 57 91 60 86 / 0 20 50 40 Santa Fe........................ 58 83 59 77 / 0 20 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 86 60 82 / 0 20 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 90 65 84 / 0 10 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 65 86 / 0 5 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 95 65 89 / 0 5 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 94 66 87 / 0 5 30 30 Belen........................... 56 97 63 90 / 0 5 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 62 94 65 87 / 0 5 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 56 96 61 89 / 0 5 30 30 Corrales........................ 57 94 64 88 / 0 5 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 55 96 62 90 / 0 5 30 30 Placitas........................ 62 89 64 83 / 0 10 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 62 93 65 86 / 0 5 30 30 Socorro......................... 64 100 67 90 / 0 5 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 82 58 76 / 0 10 50 50 Tijeras......................... 58 86 60 80 / 0 10 50 50 Edgewood........................ 57 84 58 77 / 0 20 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 85 54 78 / 0 20 50 60 Clines Corners.................. 51 75 54 71 / 0 30 70 60 Mountainair..................... 56 87 58 78 / 0 10 50 50 Gran Quivira.................... 54 87 56 78 / 0 20 50 60 Carrizozo....................... 63 93 64 82 / 0 20 50 50 Ruidoso......................... 57 84 56 71 / 0 30 60 70 Capulin......................... 51 70 54 74 / 30 70 70 40 Raton........................... 52 76 54 77 / 20 60 60 40 Springer........................ 54 77 56 79 / 20 60 80 50 Las Vegas....................... 53 74 54 71 / 5 50 90 70 Clayton......................... 57 76 59 79 / 40 60 60 30 Roy............................. 58 75 58 74 / 30 60 90 60 Conchas......................... 64 83 61 79 / 20 50 80 60 Santa Rosa...................... 62 82 61 74 / 5 40 80 70 Tucumcari....................... 64 82 61 80 / 10 40 70 40 Clovis.......................... 66 85 63 78 / 20 30 50 50 Portales........................ 67 87 63 78 / 20 30 50 50 Fort Sumner..................... 67 88 64 78 / 5 40 60 60 Roswell......................... 71 94 69 80 / 0 20 50 60 Picacho......................... 62 89 61 75 / 0 40 60 80 Elk............................. 59 87 57 73 / 0 40 50 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for NMZ219. Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42