639
FXUS65 KABQ 161758 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Tuesday. Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts and hail across
northwest New Mexico today and across central and eastern New
Mexico on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, though
these efficient rain producing storms will be moving quickly to
the northeast. Quieter weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday,
though a few breezes are likely. Severe weather may return for
Friday across eastern New Mexico. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected for the weekend so it should finally start feeling more
like fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A batch of showers associated with a subtle shortwave are currently
trekking across central NM this morning, while a few stronger storms
can be seen on radar in southeastern AZ. These storms are associated
with a SW/NE oriented jet streak currently at the base of a
seasonably deep trough currently over central CA. The trough and
associated jet streak will nudge eastward today, providing the
forcing for numerous showers and storms in western and central NM. A
slug of moisture out ahead of the trough will bring moisture levels
up to as much as 200% of normal this afternoon in the northwest
corner of the state, which is above the 90th percentile for
climatology. While the forcing and moisture are certainly in place,
instability is a bit of a question mark. Models are only showing
slightly negative LIs (-1C to -3C) and modest CAPE (100-400J/kg).
Shear is quite strong so long lasting storms will have no problem
transferring gusty winds down to the surface, but heavy rainfall
rates will be rather brief. Training storms will be required for
flash flooding and those will be most likely along and just west of
the Cont. Divide this afternoon. In addition, several storms will
likely produce small hail, but confidence in severe hail is low due
to the lack of instability as previously mentioned. Rounds of
showers and storms are expected to continue through the overnight,
but the exact locations of these showers is somewhat uncertain so
expect potentially significant changes to PoPs in future forecast
packages. Hi-res models are picking up on a cluster of showers and
storms over the HPCC burn scar so nighttime flash flooding will be a
concern.

The trough will eject eastward into The Great Basin Tuesday. A cold
front at the base of the trough will advect drier air in from the
west, quickly shutting off precipitation chances and cooling temps
down a few degrees. Storms will focus along the leading edge of the
front Tuesday as dry air out ahead of the front destabilizes the
atmosphere in eastern NM. Severe storms are possible as far west as
the Rio Grande Valley in the late morning/early afternoon, but
confidence is greater further east. Storm mode in this environment
is a bit tricky. While supercells are certainly possible in this
sheared environment, hi-res models suggest storms may cluster
together into a line as they trek from the central mountain chain
eastward to the TX border. These storms will be moving very quickly,
helping to once again mitigate the flash flood threat. A quick 1"-2"
is possible in many areas, but 3"+ appears unlikely (<10% chance
anywhere) per HREF guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A line or broken line of thunderstorms will continue to track
eastward as the trough axis swings across NM Tuesday evening. A
few strong or severe storms will be likely through mid evening
then much of the precipitation should decrease in intensity as it
shifts into Texas. Quiet conditions are expected after midnight.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry and quiet. The dryline
across eastern NM will mix out each afternoon as southwesterly
flow aloft mixes to the surface. A stray thunderstorm is not out
of the question right near the NM/TX border Thursday, but
confidence is low that this will occur. Instead breezy
southwesterly winds are expected each afternoon. Temperatures
will be a little below normal across the west and a bit above
normal across eastern NM. Meanwhile, the next upper level low
pressure system will dive southward along the CA coast on
Wednesday and shift eastward over the southern Great Basin on
Thursday. This low will continue to track along the UT/AZ border
on Friday. As it does so, strong low level southerly flow will
allow Gulf moisture to return to eastern NM, setting up a dryline
just east of the Central Mountain Chain. Strong lift ahead of the
low will aid in the development of thunderstorms along the
dryline. Attm, it looks like there will be more speed shear than
directional shear which may favor splitting storms. Hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible, though damaging winds appear
more likely given fast storm motions (on the order of 35-40 mph)
and modest instability.

The upper low will weaken as it continues to track eastward Friday
night and Saturday across Colorado. A few thunderstorms will be
possible across eastern NM on Saturday, but overall the low should
pass with little additional fanfare. A cold front will pass
through NM, dropping temperatures a few degrees for the weekend,
but most areas will still be within a few degrees of normal for
late September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Some localized MVFR ceilings across north central NM through early
afternoon due to lingering batch of light to moderate showers.
Showers and storms are beginning to develop across eastern NM and
look to impact western TAF sites, including KFMN and KGUP, this
evening. Storms will be capable of producing gusts of up to 60 mph
across western NM and locally heavy rainfall with quick motion to
the northeast. Showers and storms could struggle to hold together
across central TAF sites including KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG, due to
low instability from this morning`s cloud cover and shower
activity. Meanwhile, for eastern TAF sites generally dry
conditions with breezy south winds for the afternoon into the
early evening. Some showers could clip KLVS this evening into the
overnight hours coming off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some
isolated showers across western and northern TAF sites overnight
with lowering but still VFR ceilings. KLVS could get close to MVFR
ceilings. Cold front and westerly wind shift enters western NM in
the last few hours of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Numerous showers and storms are expected today along and west of the
central mountain chain with isolated showers and storms to the east.
Gusty winds will accompany most showers and storms and a few across
the northwest could produce damaging outflow wind gusts and small
hail. Breezy southwest to south winds will prevail across the area
today, turning more westerly tomorrow as a cold front crosses the
state from west to east. Locally windy conditions may develop just
east of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon out ahead of
the said cold front, although the greater concern will be strong to
severe storms with damaging wind gusts and large hail. These strong
storms are possible as far west as the Rio Grande Valley, but
confidence is greater further east. Most of the area will see
wetting rainfall today and/or Tuesday and a few locations could see
over 1" after repeated rounds of showers and storms. Dryline storms
are possible in far eastern NM mid to late week as southwesterlies
remain entrenched across the state out ahead of another Pacific
trough. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  75  44  76 /  50  60   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  67  34  72 /  70  70   0   0
Cuba............................  52  71  42  74 /  50  50   0   0
Gallup..........................  52  72  37  76 /  20  40   0   0
El Morro........................  51  70  40  74 /  30  40   0   0
Grants..........................  50  75  38  79 /  30  40   0   0
Quemado.........................  52  73  41  77 /  20  30   0   0
Magdalena.......................  56  77  49  79 /  30  20   0   0
Datil...........................  50  74  42  77 /  20  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  53  75  42  80 /  30  40   0   0
Glenwood........................  60  78  52  83 /  30  30   0   0
Chama...........................  46  60  34  67 /  80  70   5   0
Los Alamos......................  55  70  50  73 /  60  70  10   0
Pecos...........................  53  69  46  71 /  50  70  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  50  67  41  69 /  60  60  10   0
Red River.......................  45  59  37  61 /  60  60  20   0
Angel Fire......................  44  64  31  67 /  50  60  20   0
Taos............................  50  71  39  74 /  60  60  10   0
Mora............................  49  68  39  74 /  50  70  20   0
Espanola........................  57  78  47  81 /  60  60  10   0
Santa Fe........................  56  71  48  73 /  60  60  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  56  76  46  77 /  60  50  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  80  55  81 /  60  50   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  82  56  82 /  60  40   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  84  52  84 /  50  30   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  82  53  82 /  60  40   5   0
Belen...........................  60  85  51  84 /  40  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  60  83  52  84 /  60  40   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  84  49  84 /  50  30   5   0
Corrales........................  61  83  52  84 /  60  40   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  84  51  84 /  50  30   0   0
Placitas........................  59  80  52  79 /  60  40   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  61  82  52  82 /  60  40   5   0
Socorro.........................  62  87  54  88 /  30  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  73  47  74 /  60  50   5   0
Tijeras.........................  57  77  49  76 /  60  50   5   0
Edgewood........................  54  77  45  78 /  50  50   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  79  42  80 /  40  50  10   0
Clines Corners..................  53  74  46  76 /  40  50  10   0
Mountainair.....................  55  77  47  78 /  40  30   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  56  77  48  79 /  30  30   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  80  55  83 /  20  20   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  73  51  76 /  20  40  10   5
Capulin.........................  54  72  48  75 /  20  50  30   0
Raton...........................  54  75  44  80 /  30  50  20   0
Springer........................  55  77  45  82 /  30  50  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  53  73  44  76 /  50  70  20   0
Clayton.........................  60  82  56  83 /  10  30  50   0
Roy.............................  58  76  50  79 /  40  60  40   0
Conchas.........................  62  84  55  87 /  40  60  40   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  81  54  84 /  40  50  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  62  86  58  87 /  20  40  50   5
Clovis..........................  62  88  61  90 /   5  40  60   5
Portales........................  62  89  60  92 /   5  30  60   5
Fort Sumner.....................  63  86  57  88 /  20  50  30   0
Roswell.........................  68  91  64  95 /  10  30  20   0
Picacho.........................  60  84  56  89 /  10  30  10   0
Elk.............................  57  83  53  87 /  10  30  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71