453
FXUS65 KABQ 122128
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
328 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The warming trend will continue through Thursday, when high
temperatures will climax around 5 to 13 degrees above 1991-2020
averages. Near record high temperatures are forecast in many
locations as readings climb near and above 100 degrees in most
lower elevation locations. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Friday night as a storm
system crosses from the west with cooler temperatures. Most
locations along and north of I-40 will probably receive around
0.10 to 0.50 of an inch of rain, except around 0.75 of an inch in
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. After another chance for showers
and thunderstorms mainly along and east of the central mountain
chain Saturday afternoon, southwest winds are forecast to become
gusty early next week as high temperatures climb a few to around
10 degrees above normal again Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are struggling to develop over the central
mountain chain and northeastern highlands amid a very dry boundary
layer and rising CCLs. Sparse or stray cells may survive into the
eastern plains through the early evening, but they should be few and
far between, producing minimal rainfall over small footprints. The
gusty downburst threat will be present near any showers or storms. A
gradual clearing trend is then expected overnight, but a few scraps
of debris clouds may be left into the morning Thursday.

The upper level ridge will strengthen over NM on Thursday, with mid
tropospheric heights swelling to near 596 decameters by the
afternoon. This will cause temperatures to warm a few to several
degrees with heat becoming the central focus. The Heat Advisory will
be expanded to some adjacent southwestern and south central valley
areas where record-high temperatures are also expected. The threat
for showers and thunderstorms will be non-zero, but dwindling due to
the higher CCLs and lowering surface dewpoints. So anything that
does develop will likely remain of a mostly dry variety with little,
if any, quantifiable precipitation forecast. There will be more mid
level moisture increasing into Thursday night as a Pacific low moves
over the lower CO river basin and slides into western AZ. This will
act like a cloud canopy, trapping heat and slowing radiational
cooling, so a warm night will be forecast in many zones. There may
also be enough divergence and forcing aloft for showers to start
taking shape toward dawn Friday in far western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will become widespread again
Friday and Friday night as a low pressure system approaches the
Four Corners from the southwest, then tracks northeastward across
CO. Models depict 0.10-0.50" rain amounts along and north of I-40
with near 0.75" in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Strengthening
southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper trough will result in
breezy to windy conditions over west central, east central and
northeast areas Friday afternoon. The cloud cover, precip, and
thermal trough aloft will drop high temperatures on Friday around
4-16 degrees below Thursday`s readings. Some trailing shortwaves
in northwest flow aloft may trigger additional showers and
thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain chain on
Saturday afternoon and evening, as high temperatures rebound a few
to several degrees in most locations.

Early next week southwest flow aloft will strengthen over the
forecast area as a broad low pressure system moves inland over
the Pacific northwest. This pattern could draw the dryline into
eastern areas Sunday night and Monday night resulting in dryline
thunderstorms near NM`s eastern border each afternoon. However,
models depict the system being progressive enough to strengthen
southwest flow enough over NM to prevent any significant dryline
intrusions into the forecast area. Breezy southwest winds are
forecast at the surface on Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions are
forecast on Monday, when the strongest southwest wind gusts could
reach 45 mph over northeast areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central
New Mexico. High-based cumulus clouds will continue to develop
over the central mountain chain of the state through the afternoon
with a couple to a few stray showers and thunderstorms
developing, mostly in the vicinity of KAXX and KSRR. These will be
weak showers or storms, producing minimal rainfall, but gusty
downburst winds will be possible around them as rainfall quickly
evaporates (virga) in the drier air beneath the clouds. Look for
these showers and storms to fall apart and come to an end as they
move into the eastern plains this evening with a slow clearing
trend starting overnight. A similar pattern is forecast for
Thursday, but temperatures will warm more with even fewer showers
or storms. The hot temperatures will lead to high density altitude
readings, suggesting poor aircraft performance for many.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A very warm to hot stretch is starting to get underway with Friday
being the only day that could see some brief relief. This will
center fire weather concerns to the high instability (high Haines
indices from steep temperature lapse rates and very dry air in the
lower part of the atmosphere) and also the threat for dry lightning.
The dry lightning threat will be focused near the central mountain
chain and around the interface of the high plains and northeast
highlands through early this evening, dwindling over these areas
some more on Thursday. The Pacific low pressure system that will
cross north of NM on Friday will bring a round of more showers and
storms with the Sangre de Cristos looking to be the best candidates
for soaking rainfall while remaining areas observe much lighter
amounts. Moderate breezes and even locally windy conditions could
fan any ongoing wildfires or awaken any sleeper fires on Friday
(especially in western NM), but widespread critical conditions are
not explicitly forecast due to a brief upward trend in humidity. The
heat returns this weekend into early next week while precipitation
chances vanish and humidity plummets again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  99  66  83 /   0   0  10  50
Dulce...........................  45  93  50  78 /   0   0   5  50
Cuba............................  55  93  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
Gallup..........................  50  95  55  84 /   0   0  20  60
El Morro........................  51  91  54  81 /   0  10  20  70
Grants..........................  52  94  57  81 /   0   5  20  70
Quemado.........................  53  92  54  85 /   0  10  20  50
Magdalena.......................  62  94  64  84 /   5   0  10  60
Datil...........................  56  91  59  83 /   5  10  10  60
Reserve.........................  50  95  52  91 /   5   5  20  40
Glenwood........................  64 101  66  96 /   0   0  10  30
Chama...........................  47  86  49  73 /   0   0   5  70
Los Alamos......................  65  90  65  79 /   0   5   5  80
Pecos...........................  58  94  60  80 /   0   5   5  70
Cerro/Questa....................  49  87  52  75 /   5   5   5  80
Red River.......................  42  79  44  68 /  10  10   5  80
Angel Fire......................  32  84  34  72 /  10  10  10  70
Taos............................  51  93  55  79 /   0   0   5  60
Mora............................  51  88  53  77 /   0  10  10  80
Espanola........................  59  98  62  85 /   0   0   0  60
Santa Fe........................  61  93  65  81 /   0   0   5  70
Santa Fe Airport................  59  97  63  84 /   0   0   5  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  98  69  85 /   0   0   5  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  68 100  70  86 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  61 102  65  88 /   0   0   5  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66 100  70  86 /   0   0   5  50
Belen...........................  63 101  66  89 /   0   0  10  50
Bernalillo......................  64 100  68  87 /   0   0   5  50
Bosque Farms....................  61 101  64  88 /   0   0   5  50
Corrales........................  63 101  66  87 /   0   0   5  50
Los Lunas.......................  62 102  66  88 /   0   0   5  50
Placitas........................  65  98  68  84 /   0   0   5  60
Rio Rancho......................  66  99  70  86 /   0   0   5  50
Socorro.........................  68 104  72  93 /   0   0  10  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  92  64  79 /   0   0   5  60
Tijeras.........................  63  95  66  83 /   0   0   5  60
Edgewood........................  59  94  62  83 /   0   0   5  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  96  59  85 /   0   0   5  60
Clines Corners..................  58  92  60  81 /   0   0   5  60
Mountainair.....................  60  95  62  84 /   0   0   5  60
Gran Quivira....................  59  96  62  86 /   0   5   5  60
Carrizozo.......................  67  99  68  91 /   0  10  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  52  92  58  83 /  10  20  10  60
Capulin.........................  54  91  58  83 /  20  20  10  70
Raton...........................  55  94  58  87 /  20  20  10  70
Springer........................  55  96  58  87 /  10  20  10  70
Las Vegas.......................  56  92  58  80 /   0  20  10  70
Clayton.........................  64  99  64  90 /  10  20  10  40
Roy.............................  59  96  63  86 /  10  10  10  60
Conchas.........................  63 103  68  96 /  10   5  10  40
Santa Rosa......................  62  99  67  91 /  10   5   5  50
Tucumcari.......................  64 101  67  96 /  10   5   5  20
Clovis..........................  66 100  68  95 /  10   0   5  10
Portales........................  66 100  68  96 /  10   0   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  65 102  69  96 /  10   5   5  20
Roswell.........................  71 106  74 102 /  10   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  65  99  66  93 /  10  10  10  50
Elk.............................  63  96  64  92 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-209-219-
220-225-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52