Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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604 FXUS65 KABQ 221509 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 909 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 839 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Quick update to increase rain chances from southwest to northeast across the forecast area this morning and to lower high temperatures significantly areawide. With this morning`s PWAT`s value of another daily record breaking 1.32", high temperatures will struggle mightily to reach even the NBM`s 5th percentile category. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Rain chances today, continue to be focused over the western part of the state, while east of the Rio Grande we will see less clouds as we move into the afternoon. For Sunday and Monday we will continue to see low rain chances, mainly over western New Mexico, while our high temperatures will slowly trend higher. For the middle of next week, we will still have a slight chance for rain, mainly over the higher terrain of western New Mexico. High temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above average. Moisture and precipitation chances increase, along with the risk for flash flooding, for the end of next week, but our high temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 We will see drier and warmer conditions over the next 48 hours as upper level high pressure nudges back into the region. The plume of moisture that brought heavy rain to locations west of the Rio Grande, will continue to push to the west into Arizona. While the deeper moisture and threat for flash flooding will continue to shift west, we will still see a chance for scattered thunderstorms, especially west of the Rio Grande. Locations that saw heavy rain yesterday may see some thunderstorms today which could lead to more excessive runoff and flash flooding. The main threat for any flash flooding will be around the Gallup region up into areas around Farmington. High temperatures today will trend a little higher than we saw on Friday as the ridge aloft slowly moves into the region. More of the same on Sunday with high temperatures creeping another couple of degrees higher. Moisture that is trapped under the ridge will help fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Like today, the main focus for thunderstorms will be across north central New Mexico into western New Mexico. Since soil moisture west of the Rio Grande remain high, there will continue to be a threat for flash flooding west of the Rio Grande on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The warmer temperatures trend will continue on Monday and then with the ridge directly over New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see our hottest days of the week for the those two days. High temperatures both days will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. And like on Sunday, just enough moisture will be trapped under the ridge aloft to help fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, mainly over the high terrain of northern and western New Mexico. By late on Wednesday through the end of next week, we will see the upper level ridge begin to shift to the east. The clockwise circulation around the ridge will allow a plume of moisture to move into the region from the south and we will see better rain chances for the end of next week. The rain and clouds will lower our high temperatures a few degrees, but it will also increase the threat for flash flooding, especially in regions of fresh and recent burn scars. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 551 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across central and western areas early this morning. Even with showers and storms moving over the terminals, they should remain VFR during this time. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening, except for southeast areas which look to remain dry. The higher potential for thunderstorms to impact any airports will be across the western parts of the state, but have mostly kept rain showers for now indicating the best guess timing precipitation. Stronger storms will be capable of producing brief MVFR or IFR conditions with wet microbursts capable of producing localized, brief and erratic wind gusts to 45 kt. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will be common over the forecast area today and tonight. Thunderstorm chances will decrease significantly after midnight with more isolated storms favoring west central areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 We will see lower fire weather concerns over the next week, as moisture keeps our min RH`s higher and gives us at least a slight chance for rain. Aloft, upper level high pressure will build into New Mexico over the next few days. This ridge aloft will keep our surface winds generally light. The ridge aloft will push most of the moisture into Arizona, but some moisture will continue to be trapped under the ridge and will help fuel isolated thunderstorms, mainly over area mountains. Any rain falling on recent burn scars, could lead to rapid runoff. With the moisture in place min RH`s will stay above 20% today through Monday. Warmer temperatures will lead to lower min RH`s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but then for the end of next week, moisture, rain chances and higher min RH`s return to the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 63 91 63 / 30 10 10 0 Dulce........................... 77 47 87 47 / 30 20 10 0 Cuba............................ 74 58 83 56 / 40 30 30 10 Gallup.......................... 75 54 86 52 / 70 30 30 5 El Morro........................ 70 58 79 57 / 80 40 50 20 Grants.......................... 75 55 83 55 / 80 30 50 20 Quemado......................... 72 59 80 58 / 90 70 70 30 Magdalena....................... 75 64 82 65 / 80 60 60 20 Datil........................... 71 60 80 62 / 90 60 70 20 Reserve......................... 77 55 88 55 / 90 60 70 20 Glenwood........................ 81 68 94 69 / 80 50 60 10 Chama........................... 74 49 81 48 / 40 20 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 74 64 81 63 / 50 30 40 10 Pecos........................... 74 60 80 60 / 60 40 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 50 80 50 / 40 30 40 5 Red River....................... 67 48 72 47 / 50 30 40 5 Angel Fire...................... 71 45 77 44 / 50 30 40 5 Taos............................ 77 55 85 53 / 40 20 30 5 Mora............................ 76 53 80 52 / 50 40 50 10 Espanola........................ 81 63 90 61 / 40 20 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 74 63 83 63 / 60 30 40 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 63 86 62 / 60 30 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 69 88 70 / 60 40 40 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 68 90 68 / 60 30 30 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 68 91 68 / 60 30 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 69 90 69 / 60 40 30 10 Belen........................... 82 67 92 66 / 60 50 40 20 Bernalillo...................... 81 69 91 68 / 60 30 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 82 65 91 65 / 70 40 30 10 Corrales........................ 81 68 91 68 / 60 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 82 67 91 67 / 70 40 40 20 Placitas........................ 77 68 87 68 / 50 40 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 80 68 90 68 / 60 30 30 10 Socorro......................... 86 70 95 70 / 50 50 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 64 82 64 / 60 40 40 10 Tijeras......................... 74 65 84 65 / 60 40 40 10 Edgewood........................ 77 61 85 60 / 60 40 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 59 86 57 / 60 40 40 10 Clines Corners.................. 75 59 80 59 / 60 50 40 10 Mountainair..................... 77 61 84 61 / 60 60 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 77 60 84 61 / 70 60 60 20 Carrizozo....................... 80 66 90 67 / 50 40 30 10 Ruidoso......................... 75 59 80 60 / 60 30 50 10 Capulin......................... 77 58 82 57 / 40 30 50 5 Raton........................... 80 58 86 57 / 40 30 40 5 Springer........................ 81 60 88 58 / 50 40 40 5 Las Vegas....................... 77 58 80 57 / 50 40 50 10 Clayton......................... 85 66 90 65 / 40 30 30 10 Roy............................. 80 63 85 62 / 40 40 40 10 Conchas......................... 87 68 93 66 / 30 40 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 82 65 89 65 / 30 40 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 87 67 92 67 / 20 30 5 10 Clovis.......................... 87 66 93 68 / 20 20 5 10 Portales........................ 88 66 94 69 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 85 68 93 68 / 20 20 10 10 Roswell......................... 90 70 97 73 / 20 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 82 63 90 64 / 30 20 30 10 Elk............................. 83 58 89 60 / 40 20 30 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ205>208-214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...44