Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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004 FXUS65 KABQ 191220 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 620 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Moisture will increase from east to west across the area through Friday due to a backdoor front and moisture from a tropical wave, bringing increasing chances for showers and storms with the potential for burn scar flooding. The backdoor front will bring strong easterly winds to central NM tonight, with damaging wind gusts possible in the Albuquerque Metro. Daytime temperatures will trend down from the rain-cooling and cloud cover and be below normal areawide Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will start to rise over the weekend and be above normal by early next week. Daily rounds of storms will continue through the weekend and into early next week, but gradually trend down in coverage. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A moist backdoor front will bring cooler temperatures along and east of the central mountain chain today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. storms will generally move toward the north and northeast at speeds around 20-30 mph. The front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain early this morning with a gusty wind below canyons opening into the central valley. Enough moisture is forecast to reach northwest areas by this afternoon for isolated dry thunderstorms and virga showers capable of producing brief, localized, and erratic wind gusts to 50 mph from Mount Taylor to the northwest mountains including northern parts of the Albuquerque metro area. A 30-45 kt southeasterly speed maximum at 700 mb will then develop over central and western parts of the forecast area tonight peaking in strength during the evening hours. Strong to very strong surface winds will result, especially below canyons opening into the central valleys from the east. This includes the Santa Fe and Carrizozo areas, as well as the Jemez Mountains and northwest highlands (Cuba), where gusts up to 55 mph are expected. In Albuquerque, gusts to 60 mph appear likely. The forecast challenge with these events is nailing down the precise orientation and location of the speed max aloft, which we are only moderately confident in at this time. If the speed maximum shifts a little further north than currently forecast, then Albuquerque may only receive wind speeds up to 50 mph, while Santa Fe receives 60 mph winds. If the speed max shifts a little further to the south, then Grants may join Albuquerque with a 60 mph wind. Stay tuned for forecast package updates and warning updates as we continue to monitor this situation, which is expected to evolve rapidly as we also consider the impact of convectively induce outflow boundaries. A broad high pressure system over the eastern US, a deepening upper level trough on the west coast, and a tropical system tracking westward over northern Mexico will draw rich Gulf moisture northeastward over NM tonight through Thursday (and beyond) with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading to most of the forecast area. Two-day rain amounts are forecast to vary from a 0.25-1.75 inches along and east of the central mountain chain with locally higher amounts, and up to 0.60 of an inch farther west. Rain amounts like this can easily lead to flash flooding below recent burn scars, so we will issue Flash Flood Watches for our recent burn scars of the south central and Sangre de Cristo Mountains from the middle of this afternoon through tonight. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Moisture advection will continue Thursday night into Friday as moisture associated with an easterly wave moving west across MX gets caught up in the upper high circulation and pulled north into NM. The NAM is particularly bullish with the PoPs and QPF late Thursday night through Friday, but with that type of moisture loading the atmosphere won`t get a chance to destabilize much which could prohibit deeper convection and limit the heavy rainfall threat. A weak Pacific trough is forecast to move east toward the southern Rockies late Friday, bringing some needed forcing for a round of convection across northern NM that could persist through the night. Highs on Friday will be well below normal most areas due to added cloud cover and rain-cooling. The upper high will transition west into NM Saturday behind the departing Pacific trough and gradually expand/strengthen going into early next week, bringing a warming trend that will take temperatures above normal areawide by Monday. Both the latest ECMWF and GFS show 500mb heights reaching up to 595-596dam by Tuesday. Moisture is here to stay though, so expect daily rounds of daytime heating triggered convection with the potential for burn scar flooding from this weekend through early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas of low clouds are forecast to persist in easterly upslope flow over northeast and east central NM through much of today. In addition, a gusty east wind will continue below canyons opening into the central valleys today from Taos southward, including the Santa Fe, Albuquerque, and Carrizozo areas. The east canyon wind will become stronger from Santa Fe southward during the afternoon and especially the evening, when peak gusts up to 50 KT are forecast in Albuquerque and up to 45 KT are forecast in Santa Fe. Scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain chain this afternoon and tonight. Isolated severe storms could produce large hail and damaging winds mainly along the east slopes of the central mountain chain this afternoon. Meanwhile, isolated virga showers and mostly dry thunderstorms will be capable of producing dry microbursts this afternoon until sunset over the northwest mountains, upper Rio Grande Valley, northern parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley (including the KAEG area), and the west slopes of the Sandia, Manzano and Sacramento Mountains. Tonight, more wetting showers and thunderstorms will spread over central and western areas as well, mainly along and east of the continental divide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A moist backdoor front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east canyon wind in the central valley today, then a strong east canyon wind from Santa Fe southward tonight. Peak gusts are expected to reach 60 mph below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque this evening, and up to 55 mph in Santa Fe, as well as the Jemez Mountains and northwest highlands (including Cuba). A monsoon-like thunderstorm pattern will develop tonight through the end of the week as a mid level high pressure system over the east central US, a tropical system passing to the south of the fire weather forecast area, and a trough on the west coast all work in consort to draw Gulf moisture over New Mexico. The heaviest rain looks to favor northern and eastern areas tonight and Thursday, then central and western areas Friday through early next week. Rain amounts will trend significantly lower this weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 63 91 64 / 0 10 60 60 Dulce........................... 88 50 86 52 / 20 30 50 50 Cuba............................ 86 55 82 56 / 10 20 40 40 Gallup.......................... 91 52 90 57 / 0 0 40 30 El Morro........................ 88 56 84 58 / 0 10 30 30 Grants.......................... 92 54 86 57 / 5 20 40 30 Quemado......................... 88 58 85 59 / 0 10 30 30 Magdalena....................... 89 61 81 60 / 0 30 40 60 Datil........................... 87 58 79 59 / 0 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 93 52 90 58 / 0 10 10 30 Glenwood........................ 97 67 93 68 / 0 20 20 30 Chama........................... 82 47 79 50 / 20 40 60 50 Los Alamos...................... 84 60 78 58 / 20 50 60 50 Pecos........................... 80 57 74 56 / 40 70 70 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 47 77 51 / 40 50 60 30 Red River....................... 71 45 69 47 / 50 60 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 73 43 72 48 / 50 60 50 40 Taos............................ 84 52 81 54 / 30 50 40 40 Mora............................ 77 50 73 52 / 50 80 70 60 Espanola........................ 92 60 86 61 / 20 50 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 84 60 77 58 / 20 60 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 60 81 59 / 20 50 50 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 65 86 64 / 10 30 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 95 65 88 65 / 10 20 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 65 90 65 / 5 20 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 66 88 65 / 10 20 30 40 Belen........................... 98 63 90 65 / 5 20 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 96 65 89 64 / 10 20 30 40 Bosque Farms.................... 97 62 90 64 / 5 20 30 40 Corrales........................ 96 65 90 64 / 10 20 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 97 63 90 65 / 5 20 30 40 Placitas........................ 90 64 84 63 / 10 40 40 50 Rio Rancho...................... 95 65 89 64 / 10 20 30 40 Socorro......................... 100 66 91 66 / 5 20 30 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 85 58 79 58 / 20 40 50 50 Tijeras......................... 89 60 82 60 / 20 40 50 50 Edgewood........................ 88 57 80 58 / 20 50 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 55 80 57 / 30 50 60 50 Clines Corners.................. 82 55 73 55 / 40 70 60 70 Mountainair..................... 88 57 80 58 / 20 40 50 50 Gran Quivira.................... 90 57 80 58 / 20 40 60 60 Carrizozo....................... 94 63 82 63 / 20 30 50 60 Ruidoso......................... 85 57 69 57 / 40 40 80 70 Capulin......................... 70 53 74 56 / 70 70 40 30 Raton........................... 76 53 77 57 / 60 60 40 30 Springer........................ 79 55 79 59 / 60 80 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 79 55 72 56 / 60 90 70 70 Clayton......................... 77 60 79 61 / 60 70 20 30 Roy............................. 79 58 74 59 / 70 90 60 60 Conchas......................... 88 62 80 64 / 50 90 50 70 Santa Rosa...................... 87 61 75 62 / 50 80 60 60 Tucumcari....................... 87 63 81 65 / 40 70 30 40 Clovis.......................... 88 63 78 63 / 30 50 50 50 Portales........................ 89 63 77 64 / 20 40 50 40 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 79 64 / 40 60 50 60 Roswell......................... 97 70 81 68 / 30 40 60 70 Picacho......................... 90 62 72 61 / 50 50 80 70 Elk............................. 90 57 70 58 / 50 50 80 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ204-211-218-225. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ219. Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight for NMZ214-215. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44