178
FXUS65 KABQ 242032
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
232 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Overall, quiet weather remains throughout the state through the
week. A brief period of gusty east winds in Albuquerque may occur
this evening, but will be unimpactful. Temperatures will continue to
increase gradually through the week, with highs being regularly 5 to
10 degrees above average. Some daily high temperature records may be
equaled or broken on Thursday and Friday. Isolated virga showers may
occur over the northern mountains on Friday afternoon and evening.
The weather will remain calm through the weekend, with temperatures
lowering a degree or two but still remaining well above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A weak frontal boundary has pushed southward through northeastern NM
this morning, associated with a synoptic troughing pattern over the
central CONUS. With a 589dm H5 ridge over UT sliding southeastward
toward the Four Corners area today, this frontal boundary is only
expected to squeak through the gaps of the central mountain chain
this evening and tonight. A brief period of gusty winds 15-25kts in
the Tijeras Canyon near Albuquerque is likely, but expected to be
unimpactful. This frontal boundary advances through the rest of
eastern NM by Wednesday morning. Forecast high temperatures along
and south of I-40 will fall several degrees relative to today`s
readings, while most other areas will see warming temperatures
thanks to the H5 ridge moving squarely over the Land of Enchantment.
Forecast highs will be 5F to 10F above normal for late September
with 60s/70s in the mountains and 80s to near 90F at lower elevation
valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The 500mb high pressure will continue to drape over NM on Thursday,
with the highest heights being 591-592dm. This puts the daily record
of a 591dm 500mb height level at risk. With this hefty high pressure
over us, temperatures will be mainly 5-10F above average for the
entire CWA. Some daily high temperatures will enact a threat of
nearing records, with a forecast high of 89F in Farmington breaking
the daily record of 88F from 2001. Friday shows much of the same
occurring, with Farmington forecast to tie a record of 88F and the
rest of the state seeing above average temperatures. A difference
from Thursday to Friday sees some mid-level moisture being forced
into the state from a shortwave progressing along the ridge. With
the addition of substantial daytime heating, inverted V soundings
are likely across the northern mountains, signaling high based
cumulus clouds with potential virga showers. These would be
sources of isolated gusty winds through the afternoon and evening
hours on Friday. PWAT forecasts show above average values
(~0.7in), further supporting these virga showers. Aside from the
northern mountains, the rest of the forecast area will continue to
see tranquil weather throughout much of the extended period.

While the sensible weather (or lack thereof) through the weekend
changes little from day to day, the pattern into next week is
subject to forecast uncertainty. The polar jet, currently well
agreed upon to continue a zonal orientation across the northern
Pacific, begins to diverge in deterministic models. The GFS produces
an intense 500mb trough that digs into the northern Plains into
Monday. The ECMWF, while showing signs of a trough on Monday, delays
its amplification to Monday evening/Tuesday morning and keeps it
mostly north of the US-Canada border. This has implications on a
potential backdoor front through northeast NM on Monday evening,
depending on how this trough influences a surface low pressure.
Forecast confidence has been low on a feature like this
manifesting. Confidence will increase once it is apparent how
strong/fast the polar jet amplifies and once the models get a good
handle on it. Ensembles are also having a hard time grasping the
setup, which adds to uncertainty. With all that said, an idea of
how this system sets up will become apparent through the latter
part of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR prevails as a weak frontal boundary brings an easterly to
northeasterly wind shift through eastern NM. A weak east canyon
wind looks likely at KABQ gusting above 20kts tonight. Weaker
directional wind shifts will be present across the eastern plains,
staying below 10kts south of U.S. Hwy 60.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast
period. Warm and dry conditions will persist, influenced by high
pressure over the state with generally weak to modest wind direction
changes each day. Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to good
across the forecast area. Scattered virga showers over the northern
mountains producing erratic gusty winds Friday afternoon will be the
one exception to the dry and calm forecast message.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  85  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  82  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  43  85  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  48  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  84  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  46  79  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  46  87  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  77  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  52  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  48  78  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  39  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  29  72  29  76 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  41  79  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  76  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  48  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  51  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  85  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  88  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  87  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  51  88  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  44  87  47  90 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  53  88  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  87  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  55  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  87  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  90  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  81  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  43  82  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  82  40  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  76  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  81  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  76  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  43  80  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  42  81  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  77  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  51  79  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  47  76  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  82  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  79  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  81  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  53  84  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  84  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  83  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  59  88  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  82  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  82  50  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24