097
FXUS63 KABR 231730
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will be the focus for a 20 to 50 percent chance light
  rain showers this afternoon and evening.

- Near normal temperatures for the early part of the work week.
  Above normal temperatures return Wednesday through the end of the
  week, with Thursday seeing the warmest temperatures (mainly in
  the 80s).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Increased chances for showers late this afternoon through the
evening hours, particularly over northeastern South Dakota into
west central Minnesota this evening. Otherwise, the ongoing
forecast remains on track with the gusty winds out of the south
this afternoon, peaking with gusts 25-35 mph over the eastern
half of SD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level shortwave trough currently approaching the area from
the northwest will slowly track across the CWA this afternoon and
tonight, before exiting to the east on Tuesday. Models hinting at
some decent energy in association with this trough.

At the surface, high pressure over the eastern part of the region
will exit to the east this morning as low pressure and an associated
frontal boundary approach from the west. The front will reach
central South Dakota this afternoon, then will gradually slide
eastward, exiting the CWA by Tuesday morning. With the
aforementioned upper level energy over the region, the frontal
boundary may become the focus for precipitation this afternoon and
evening (15 to 25 percent chance). With basically no instability
around, any precipitation will occur in the form of light rain
showers, with accumulations less than 0.05 inches. High pressure
will settle in behind the exiting front on Tuesday, bringing a
return to dry conditions.

High temperatures today will be in the 70s. Low temperatures tonight
will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Tuesday night, the upper level low pressure continues to move
southeast as an area of high pressure moves in from the west. The
low will stall over the Gulf Coast states as a trough moves into
Canada from the Pacific. These two areas of lower pressure will
deform and somewhat cut off the high which will form a bubble of
high pressure over the Great Lakes. This high slowly weakens and the
southern low moves north Sunday. This low starts to weaken on Monday
and a trough reaches down from Canada Monday afternoon. At the
surface, a low sits off to our west over northeastern WY and
southwestern SD starting Thursday. This continues through the end of
the period. A cold front connecting moves northwest to southeast
across the region on Sunday.

Rain chances aren`t much of a thing during the period. Some slight
PoPs turn up at the very end of the period Monday afternoon across
eastern SD as the cold front stalls. Highs for most of the period
will be around 10-15 degrees above normal with a peak of 15-20
degrees above on Thursday especially west river. Sunday and Monday
are looking to be slightly cooler at 5-10 and 5 or less degrees
above normal respectively. Thursday afternoon, as we transition out
of high pressure, winds could gust closer to 35 mph west of the
James River valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue with ta 20 to 50 percent chance of showers
as a cold front swings across the area late this afternoon through
tonight. Winds gusting out of the south ahead of this front have
peaked around 30kts.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin