804
FXUS63 KABR 181137 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
637 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front, continue
  eastward this morning. Rain showers, behind the main line of
  storms, will end west to east across the forecast area through
  the morning with areas over northeastern SD/western MN ending
  midday as the front tracks eastward.

- A break from the active pattern is anticipated tonight through
  Wednesday. However, it quickly turns more active again by the
  end of the week into the first half of the weekend with a 40-90%
  chance of precipitation with the highest chances Thursday night
  through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of 3am a strong line of storms ahead of the cold front,
within an MCS, extends from northwestern MN and southwestward
through south central SD. Radar rain estimates have been between 2-4
inches in central SD as the line has trained over the same areas
around and west of the Mo River. A Flash Flood Warning has been
issued for parts of Stanley County as Crest Unit Streamflow`s values
have risen up to values of 600cfs/smi! HREF/CAMs indicates the line
will continue eastward through the morning. With the LLJ and
northerly moisture surge, ahead of the front, these storms could
still stay strong for the next couple hours, but looks to become
more outflow dominant after this. By 18Z, lingering stratiform rain
will be over our extreme eastern CWA as the line continues into MN.
Little bit of a difference between CAMs on the exact exit time here.
A few of the models do show some light straggling precip behind the
main line, associated with the 850mb front. I left pops under 10%
for now.

HREF and LREF ensembles indicate southwest flow continuing over the
CWA with a longwave trough over the western CONUS as the associated
shortwave tracks over the Northern Plains today and continues
northeast into Ontario by early Wednesday. Winds aloft continue to
be strong downwind of this shortwave, ranging from 50-65kts,
increasing to 60-70kts this evening from central SD through ND by
00Z Wednesday. By 12Z, the 850mb low will centered over the Northern
Plains with the ongoing LLJ in place over eastern to southeastern SD
into the Central Plains. Speeds are between 50-60kts, decreasing mid
morning or so as it moves east with the low. The surface low is
forecasted to be over northeastern SD with the cold front draped
southward through NE. Winds will switch to northwesterly from west
to east across the CWA with northwest flow into tonight.

GFS indicates 6 hour pressure rises of +9 to +13mb will move in from
west to east over the CWA with the incoming high today. This will
bring in CAA (-3 to -15C/12hr. With pressure rises and CAA this will
help steepen low level lapse rates a bit. We do lose that LLJ so
850mb winds won`t be anything impressive this afternoon but we do
reach between 20-25kts, at peak heating, at the top of the mixed
layer, mainly over central SD per RAP soundings. I did blend
NBM/NBM75 to show for this with gusts up to 35kts in our usual
Corson and Dewey Counties.

High pressure keeps the area dry this evening into Wednesday. With
the cooler air from the high, lows will dip down into the 40s to the
lower 50s. MaxT temps for Wednesday will range only in the upper 60s
to the lower 70s.

Unsettled weather returns to the area Wednesday evening through the
end of the week. The longwave trough remains unchanged through
Friday with a northern shortwave pushing west to east over the
northern CONUS and over the Northern Plains/southern Canada by the
weekend. Models agree on this setup, but still some differences
between the ensembles on intensity and timing of wave. GEFS shows
this wave deeper and GEPS keeps it more broad. A surface stationary
front is forecasted to be centered over the Central Plains Wednesday
into Thursday and lift northward, as a warm front, into Friday
morning as a lee side low develops. So pretty similar setup to what
we have been dealing with. CSU does peg our CWA with a 5% chance of
severe during this time but still to early to nail down details.
This low will sweep across the CWA Friday into the Saturday time
frame. Our highest pops (70-90%) will be Thursday night into Friday
morning. A high will move in behind the low Saturday into Sunday.
Well into the extended LREF ensembles indicate another shortwave/mid
low in Canada that will bring a surface front in, from the
northwest, early next week.

High temps do not look to be anything extreme through the weekend
Temps will range in the 70s and 80s with warmer air moves back in
early next week as a ridge moves overhead aloft, with forecasted
highs in the 80s into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR CIGs across central SD (KPIR/KMBG) early this morning
are forecast to shift east and affect KABR/KATY as well. Still
dealing with -SHRA/SHRA and isolated -TSRA/TSRA across the region
this morning. Although, this activity looks to be moving away from
KPIR/KMBG and should primarily pose a threat to KABR/KATY for the
morning hours. MVFR VSBY is possible with any heavier SHRA/TSRA
that move over a terminal. LLWS (low-level wind shear) is still
possible across KABR/KATY this morning and have inserted mention
of this.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...TMT