Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
816
FNAK51 PAFC 231201
FWFAER
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Warm and relatively dry conditions are expected once again for
much of southcentral Alaska on Sunday. RH will drop to near 25
percent for much of the Susitna Valley, as well as the Copper
River Basin. Temperatures will again be in the mid 70s to low 80s
for those areas, with coastal locations and higher elevations
remaining cooler. The difference from Saturday will come in a few
ways... 1) Thunderstorm coverage will be a little more widespread
than on Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to
develop in all the typical mountain ranges this afternoon and then
push westward given a weak easterly steering flow. 2) Synoptic
winds will be a bit less than on Saturday, which should keep us
just below red flag criteria. However, thunderstorms may produce
gusty outflows that result in a brief period of strong winds. 3)
UAF and HRRR smoke models suggest smoke from the interior may move
into portions of southcentral Alaska, which may moderate temps
(and thus RH) even more.
Looking ahead, the first half of next week looks relatively
similar in the sense that warm and fairly dry conditions will
continue with afternoon shower/thunderstorm chances. In fact, a
ridge of high pressure extending from Yukon into east-central
Alaska is expected to strengthen, which may result in the warmest
temperatures of the year thus far for the Copper River Basin by
Wednesday.
AKZ101-240230-
ANCHORAGE-
INCLUDING...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...EKLUTNA
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 50
TEMP (24H TREND) 66-74 (-4) 52 (0) 62-71
RH % (24H TREND) 43-60 (+11) 84 (+5) 50-70
20FTWND(MPH) SW 3-9 S 1-8 W 3-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4266 3322
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 3 S 8
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 1
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 24105 29898
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40
TEMP (24H TREND) 79 (-1) 55 (+1) 74
RH % (24H TREND) 46-52 (+10) 86 (+5) 55-63
20FTWND(MPH) W 3-9 S 1-10 W 3-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4156 3423
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)S 6 SW 7
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 1
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 28869 23418
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ111-240230-
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 50 60
TEMP (24H TREND) 65-72 (-2) 50 (0) 61-69
RH % (24H TREND) 45-56 (+10) 77-84 (+5) 55-72
20FTWND(MPH) S 3-10 SW 1-7 W 4-8
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5835 3983
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 6 W 6
CWR 10 10 20
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 36833 22158
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 40 50
TEMP (24H TREND) 80 (-1) 55 (+3) 75
RH % (24H TREND) 42-48 (+8) 85 (+5) 52-59
20FTWND(MPH) S 1-9 SW 1-8 SW 4-9
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5789 4405
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SE 5 SW 6
CWR 10 10 20
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 37828 29241
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ121-240230-
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.INLAND AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 60 40 50
TEMP (24H TREND) 69-80 (-4) 52 (0) 65-74
RH % (24H TREND) 42-55 (+17) 82-91 (+11) 49-64
20FTWND(MPH) W 2-10 S 2-8 W 3-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5539 3957
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 5 SW 7
CWR 20 10 10
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 29635 24920
REMARKS...NONE.
.COASTAL AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER MCLDY PCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 20 20
TEMP (24H TREND) 68-74 (-3) 52 (-1) 63-69
RH % (24H TREND) 49-59 (+15) 81-90 (+8) 57-67
20FTWND(MPH) W 4-7 SW 3-9 SW 5-10 G17
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 3917 3169
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)W 6 SW 9
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 24054 22212
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
AKZ125-240230-
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.INLAND AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40
TEMP (24H TREND) 63-75 (-1) 50 (-1) 59-71
RH % (24H TREND) 44-57 (+12) 78-86 (+5) 47-63
20FTWND(MPH) SE 2-11 SE 3-9 SE 2-7
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4855 4002
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)SE 6 SE 8
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 28271 34605
REMARKS...NONE.
.COASTAL AREAS...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY
PRECIP TYPE SHWRS SHWRS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 30
TEMP (24H TREND) 59-67 (-5) 50 (0) 55-63
RH % (24H TREND) 52-76 (+21) 83-93 (+10) 60-84
20FTWND(MPH) NE 2-8 NE 1-7 SE 2-6
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 2125 2272
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 6 SE 7
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 1 1 1
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 16681 22460
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
AKZ141-240230-
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...PAXSON...SLANA
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.ABOVE 2500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 50 60
TEMP (24H TREND) 50-71 (-2) 39-47 (0) 50-71
RH % (24H TREND) 28-64 (+10) 69-78 (0) 35-67
20FTWND(MPH) E 3-10 E 2-9 SW 3-8
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 8398 8173
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 7 SW 7
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 67839 53670
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 2500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS SHWRS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 30 40
TEMP (24H TREND) 80 (+2) 51 (0) 79
RH % (24H TREND) 24-33 (+1) 75 (+4) 30-38
20FTWND(MPH) E 1-8 SE 3-10 S 4-8
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 9266 8504
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)E 7 S 7
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 1
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 75363 54702
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
$$
AKZ145-240230-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW
401 AM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024
.ABOVE 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 50 40 60
TEMP (24H TREND) 68-76 (+1) 52 (+2) 64-73
RH % (24H TREND) 30-45 (+9) 72-80 (+11) 44-62
20FTWND(MPH) NE 3-9 SE 2-9 SW 5-9
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 7391 6660
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 6 SW 7
CWR 10 10 20
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 51808 39348
REMARKS...NONE.
.BELOW 1500 FT...
TODAY TONIGHT MON
CLOUD COVER PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE TSTMS TSTMS TSTMS
CHANCE PRECIP (%) 40 30 50
TEMP (24H TREND) 81 (-1) 53 (0) 77
RH % (24H TREND) 32-40 (+11) 81-87 (+13) 44-52
20FTWND(MPH) N 1-7 SW 2-13 S 5-9
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 7107 6652
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)NE 5 S 8
CWR 10 10 10
LAL 2 2 2
VENT RATE (KT-FT) 49446 55413
REMARKS...NONE.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$