![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
523 FXAK68 PAFC 230038 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 438 PM AKDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday)... It has been a very warm day across Southcentral with northerly winds bringing in dry air and warming most places into the 70s, including Kodiak and Anchorage. Seward joined the 70 degree club before the sea breeze kicked in and cooled them off. Temperatures pushed the 80 degree mark in the Susitna Valley and some northern sections of the Copper River Basin. The northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin have been hot, dry, and windy enough for a Red Flag Warning through 10 PM tonight which denotes the potential for extreme fire behavior. While there has been limited convection as of early this afternoon, cumulus fields are seen on satellite building over the Talkeetna Mountains and Alaska Range. This area should build farther southward this evening with isolated thunderstorms possible over mountains this afternoon and evening. Sunday looks like a better day for thunderstorm potential as the airmass over Southcentral will be more unstable. One item of note is that the GFS, Canadian, and HRRR models are all indicating for some 500 mb vorticity advection over the Kenai, Chugach, and southern Talkeetna Mountains Sunday evening. Should this occur, there might be more organized convection for these areas which would hold together off the mountains allowing the thunderstorms to move over the Mat-Su Valleys, Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula. This is not a terribly strong signal, but in an unstable environment it could cause increased thunderstorm development. Monday and Tuesday will see continued afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially over mountainous areas. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... High clouds have persisted over much of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range on Saturday within the presence of an upper trough. However, this has not prevented the development of weak instability over the region. A few showers and thunderstorms have already materialized over the Western Alaska Range and to the north and northeast of Lime Village. Additional wet thunderstorms will be possible across both the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range through the evening hours, as they meander generally southward. Temperatures on Saturday have largely underperformed with high temperatures struggling to get out of the upper 60s. Sunday will likely be another day of cooler temperatures across Southwest Alaska with areas of continued cloud cover. The trough currently over the region should begin to meander southward, allowing more breaks in cloud cover and another round of late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range. Looking west, an occluded low skirting the Eastern Aleutians this evening is forecast to drop southward into the North Pacific through Sunday afternoon. Models are slowly coming into better agreement with the arrival of the next upper low into the Western Aleutians on Monday afternoon. This low will deepen into the 980 mb range while tracking just north of the Central Aleutians into Tuesday. Expect widespread showers across the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday with small craft easterly winds overspreading the region over the latter half of the day. BL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)... The long term consists of a high amplitude ridge over the AlCan border and a high amplitude trough over the Bering. This will lead to fairly bimodal weather between the Bering/Southwest and Southcentral. In general, the Bering and Southwest will be wetter and cooler than what has been observed recently as a series of shortwaves move from the Bering and into Southwest Alaska and the west coast. Southcentral will likely be cloudier in this pattern, though influence from the ridge will keep temperatures above average with possibilities of breezy conditions and thunderstorms. The main uncertainty in the forecast for Southcentral will be how far east the shortwaves are able to make it, and therefor the extent of convection and rain. -Jones && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR will persist through the TAF period. Winds will increase out of the south through the evening and then abate again overnight. Most shower and thunderstorm activity will remain out of Anchorage today, but cannot completely rule out a shower or two making it near Anchorage. Probability of daytime showers or thunderstorms is a slight bit higher on Sunday, as easterly flow aloft will assist in the westward movement of any convection that develops across the Chugach front range. && $$