449
FZAK80 PAFC 202136
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
136 PM AKDT Friday 20 September 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 25 September 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...High to moderate.

SYNOPSISLow pressure over the high Arctic will gradually move north
as high pressure builds north from the southern Chukchi Sea through
Monday. Broad low pressure will move north from the mainland over
the Beaufort Sea Tuesday and Wednesday.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 75 25N 166 57W to
76 34N 166 22W to 77 3N 142 10W to 76 2N 141 21W and continues
in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. Sea ice also lingers
off the north coast of the Chukchi Peninsula and at times moves into
Alaska waters between the Bering Strait and Point Hope.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 290
nm northwest of Point Barrow to 335 nm north-northwest of Point
Barrow to 400 nm north of Kaktovik to 340 nm north of Kaktovik and
continues in Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water. Sea ice
also lingers off the northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula and at
times moves into Alaska waters between the Bering Strait and Point
Hope.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Winds will generally be southerly to
easterly around the low, with lighter winds farther from the low
center through Sunday. Winds then shift to northerly Monday, then
broad easterly winds Tuesday and Wednesday. General drift of the ice
pack through Sunday will be approximately 10 to 20 nm to the north,
then back south Monday up to 10 nm, then to the west up to 20 nm
Tuesday and Wednesday. New ice will continue to form along the edge
of the main ice pack, especially after Sunday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is moderate. Northerly to northwesterly winds will become
northeasterly Monday through Wednesday. Sea ice will generally drift
south 20 to 30 nm through the forecast period and new sea ice may
form within the existing ice pack.

&&
Schreck