034
FXAK69 PAFG 230923
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
123 AM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper low will continue to produce numerous snow
showers in the Brooks Range through Tuesday. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system will move into the Gulf on Monday, and the arctic
trough remaining in place over the west coast, will keep the
Interior cool and cloudy with a chance of precip through
Wednesday.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis... Models in fair agreement with an
upper low over the Brooks Range and a 522 dam low over the
Aleutians. This upper low will track eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska on Monday and the Upper low over the Brooks Range will
proprogate to the south and deepen to 527 dam near the Seward
Peninsula on Monday. High pressure over the west coast will
retrograde to the west over Russia. Troughing will persist over
the State through mid week keeping the Interior cool and cloudy
along with shortwaves moving northward across the Interior that
will enhance shower activity through Wednesday. An upper low will
develop in the western Bering Sea on Thursday then track south on
Friday. Southerly flow will develop over the Interior next
weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Troughing aloft will keep the Interior cool and on the cloudy
side through mid week. Weak shortwaves will propagate to the north
producing spotty rain/snow showers through Wednesday. The
Pressure gradient remains tight at 925 mb and northeast winds
around 15 to 25 mph will continue over higher terrain on Monday.
Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s through Wednesday. Lows in
the low to mid 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The pressure gradient remains tight over the west coast and
will continue to see gusty northeastly winds through the Bering
Strait and over the coast around 15 to 30 mph. With the colder air
advection, temperatures will steadily continue to drop off and be
on an overall downtrend through the mid part of next week. Upper
low dropping down over the area on Monday will bring some showers
to the W Interior and inland areas on Monday and Tuesday. Highs in
the low 40s over much the coast through Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
An upper low over the Western Brooks Range will keep snow showers
going over the range through Tuesday. Snow accumulations of 1 to
2 inches per day is possible with the continued snow shower
activity. There could be higher accumulations west of Anaktuvuk
Pass. The north slope will continue to see areas of stratus and
Fog through the weekend. A weak low will move into the Beaufort
Sea on Monday and could enhance more showers for the Eastern north
slope and Brooks Range. Highs in the upper 30s near the coast and
colder in the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper low progged to remain over the west coast through much of
the week, while the Interior remains cloudy and cool with the
threat of Showers. An upper level low develops over the western
Bering Sea on Thursday and tracks to the south on Friday. Further
out towards the end of the run, the GFS is showing a strong
system that moves into the Gulf of Alaska for next weekend, but
there is still alot of uncertainty between models at this point in
time. Will continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-804>807-816-817-850>854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-855-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$