377
FXAK69 PAFG 141242
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
442 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Interior will become warmer and drier today with isolated
thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms
over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of
fire starts. The Interior will become hot and dry over the
weekend, much like last weekend, but without the wind. There will
be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun.

The West Coast has been cool with areas of fog, and there are isolated
to scattered showers west of Nome and Kivalina. Similar
conditions will continue into today, then expect showers to end and
fog to become more widespread tonight into Sun.

Expect stratus and fog to remain along the Arctic Coast from
Utqiagvik east today then thin at Utqiagvik Sat. West of Utqiagvik,
cloudy skies southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, isolated to scattered
showers, and above normal temps today into the weekend. The inland
North Slope and Brooks Range will remain very warm and dry through
the weekend, with isolated PM thunderstorms in the Central Brooks
Range today through Sat.

Surface Pattern... A thermal low pressure trough will continue to
move to Chicken to Atigun Pass to Umiat by this afternoon, and to
Chicken to Arctic Village by Sat afternoon, then remain there
into Sun. This will be the focus for thunderstorms the next
several days.

A weakening vertically stacked low in the Gulf of Anadyr will move
to 300 NM west of Point Hope by Fri afternoon, to 300 NM northwest of
Utqiagvik by Sat afternoon, and to 200 NM northwest of Utqiagvik
by Sun afternoon. This is causing coolness with areas of fog, and isolated
to scattered showers along the West Coast that will spread north over the
Western Arctic on the weekend. Scattered showers and above normal temps
Fri into the weekend.

High pressure over the Beaufort Sea will persist into Sun. This
will cause east winds along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik
along with pushing in stratus and fog and keeping it there
into Sun.

High pressure over SW AK will build over the West Coast today and
Sat and then persist into Sun. This will cause stratus and fog
along the West Coast that will persist through Sunday, becoming
thin in the afternoon and evenings, and becoming more dense
midnight to morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The long wave pattern will consist of an omega block with the
blocker high over mainland AK, a low over the Gulf of AK, another
low over the

Today, at 850 mb, the 0C isotherm will be from the Seward Pen and Point
Hope NW, while the +10C isotherm is over the Eastern North Slope
and much of the Eastern Interior. By Sat the +10C isotherm covers
the Central and Eastern Interior and Brooks Range, while the West Coast
warms as does the Arctic Coast. All areas warm 1-2C on Sun. Surface
temps will follow suit expect for areas with seas or land breezes.

With precipitation, no areas receive significant precip through
the weekend other than isolated areas under PM thunder storms
today. Sat and Sun will be mainly dry for most areas.

At the surface, models show similar solutions at the surface through
Sun. Sustained winds over the Interior remain less than 15 mph through
the weekend. The Eastern Arctic Coast will have east winds of 15 to 20
mph tonight through today. South winds 15 to 25 mph in the Bering
Strait and near Point Hope into Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough will continue to move to Chicken to
Atigun Pass to Umiat by this afternoon, and to Chicken to Arctic Village
by Sat afternoon, then remain there into Sun. This will be the focus for
thunderstorms the next several days.

The Interior will become warmer and drier today with isolated
thunderstorms in the Eastern Interior. Some of those thunderstorms
over the NE Interior will be dry and increase the possibility of
fire starts today. The Interior will become hot and drier over the
weekend, much like last weekend but without the wind. There will
be a few thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior Sat and Sun.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm temperatures
and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that water levels will fall
slowly through the weekend and into next week.

Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range,
and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper
Fortymile River Basins the past few days. Rainfall amounts range from
half to nearly 2 inches, with the heaviest amounts along the Alaska
Range to the east of Denali Park.

This rain has caused rapid rises on streams and small rivers in
steep terrain. The streams and small rivers are beginning to fall.
Larger rivers such as the Tanana, the Delta, the Nabesna and the Chisana
Rivers should rise over the next several days. Although no flooding is
expected, people in the Alaska Range east of Denali Park, and along the
Goodpaster, Charlie and Fortymile Rivers should be alert to high river
levels into this morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-935.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$