819
FXAK69 PAFG 242317
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 PM AKDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Little changes to the ongoing forecast. An arctic trough will
keep light snow over the N Slope and Arctic into mid week. A deep
but weakening low over the Gulf shifts southward with mid level
energy moving inland, increasing chances for rain/snow showers
(snow levels 1000 feet or less over the Central Interior). It`ll
be fairly cloudy through this week for most of the Interior. This
will push Fairbanks International towards the latest "first
freeze" of the season of all-time (Sept 27, 1974).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Troughing continues to persist over the State through mid week
keeping the Interior cool and cloudy along with shortwaves moving
northward across the Interior that will enhance rain/snow shower
activity through Wednesday. An upper low will develop in the
western Bering Sea late Wednesday into Thursday then track south
and move across the Aleutians Friday into Saturday. Weak ridging
and southerly flow will develop over the Interior next weekend. A
strong upper low will move into the Gulf from the south late
Sunday into Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Troughing aloft will keep the Interior cool and on the cloudy
side through mid week. Weak shortwaves will propagate to the north
producing spotty rain/snow showers through Wednesday. Snow level
around 2000 feet. Light amounts of accumulations expected at these
levels, up to one inch. Most of the shower activity will be
confined to the Alaska Range and north and east of Fairbanks.
Lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s tonight and highs in the low to mid
40s for lower terrain and low 30s for higher terrain Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The pressure gradient remains tight over the west coast and
will continue to see gusty northeastly winds through the Bering
Strait and over the coast around 20 to 30 mph through tonight.
Expect the gradient to relax slightly Wednesday morning with winds
to 15 to 25 mph. Upper low dropping down over the area on Monday
will bring some showers to the W Interior and inland areas on
Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Diminishing chances of snow showers over the Brooks Range tonight.
Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are possible with
the remaining snow showers. The north slope will continue to see
areas of stratus and Fog. Lows in the low 30s near the coast and
near the mid 20s for the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A vertically stacked low develops over the western Berring Sea
Wednesday night into Thursday. As that low tracks south toward the
Alutians, precipitation chances increase along the western coast
and parts of the interior Friday. That same low will then track
north across the Alutian islands as a ridge builds over the
interior. Future systems show another low building over the
Berring Sea Sunday into Monday. A stronger low is expected over
the gulf of Alaska during this same time period. The low in the
gulf will increase precipitation chancesw for the southwest part
of the region. A more impactful low could head into the Berring
Sea late next Tuesday, but here is still lots of uncertainty on
location and timing.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.
&&

$$