827
FNAK79 PAFG 270203
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for 119 McDonald...Yukon Dispatch Center
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
603 PM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 AKDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM AKDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through 11 pm tonight as
they roll off the higher terrain to the east of the fire. Some
storms may produce outflow winds even before reaching the fire, as
they weaken. Low chance of wetting rains since these are high-
based and isolated. Light winds through the night with pretty good
overnight RH recovery again.

For Thursday, another hot and dry day with minimum RH near 30
percent, though winds are expected to be lighter. There will be a
much higher chance for thunderstorms. They will likely track from
east to west, and will be possible throughout the afternoon and
evening. Storms may be strong, with potential to produce frequent
lightning (for which a Red Flag Warning is in effect), heavy rain,
gusty winds, and small hail.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Smoke through
                    the night. Isolated thunderstorms moving from
                    east to west may reach the fire no earlier than
                    8 pm and dissipate by 11 pm. Storms may produce
                    gusty outflow winds even if they weaken before
                    reaching the fire.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 10 mph, becoming light after
                    1 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph.
Inversion setup.....1 am.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Smoke through the
                    day. Isolated thunderstorms after noon,
                    increasing to scattered thunderstorms after
                    3 pm.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 am.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Areas of smoke
                    through the night. Scattered thunderstorms
                    before 12 am.
CWR.................25 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph.
Inversion setup.....1 am.

$$
Forecaster...QUESADA
Requested by...Casey Lasota
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416117.24/AFG
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0