Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
537 FXAK67 PAJK 261307 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 507 AM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SHORT TERM...Remains of the moisture band is will try to spread drizzle and light rain to the north central panhandle. Mostly cloudy skies also will cover much of the southern panhandle. Expect some of the clouds to break up leaving some breaks in the clouds so high temperatures could be up and down across the panhandle. Highs should be into the mid-upper 60s to lower 70s. Partial clearing is possible as the weakened circulation, near the central coast falling apart and then falling apart and the northwest flow near the outer coast. With the breaks overnight, potential fog over the panhandle headed into Thursday morning. .LONG TERM...The start of the long term period Wednesday will feature a slight chance of an easterly wave mentioned at the tail end of the short range discussion. Once that is resolved, skies should begin to clear in earnest as high pressure builds over the Gulf. This will lead to continued light winds of 10 kt or less for a majority of the inside waters, with the exception being afternoon/evening sea breeze circulations such as northern Lynn Canal near Taku Inlet. As the ridge builds, there will be a slight tightening of the pressure gradient in the SE Gulf with winds out of the NW for coastal waters reaching around 20 kt. This is expected to be relatively short lived and peak late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overall the big picture is relatively unchanged for the remainder of the week with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid 60s and low to mid 70s in some areas. 850 mb temperatures still remain on track to be 8 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, and subsequently snow levels will be steadily rising to between 9,000 and 10,000 feet over a majority of the panhandle. Once again, being on the downstream side of the ridge, a marine layer is still possible to bring on and off cloudy conditions to the outer coastal communities which could limit daytime warming. Model guidance continues to wrestle with the idea of a system moving into the far southern gulf at the beginning of the weekend to break up the otherwise benign pattern. While timing and track remain somewhat scattered, the general consensus is that this system will not be particularly strong. Winds in the southern and central gulf will shift to be more easterly and increase in response to this advancing system, but are expected to remain below 25 kt. Overall lower forecaster confidence for timing of precipitation to return to the southern panhandle, with a nebulous timeframe of sometime this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates as the week progresses. && .AVIATION...Remnants of an upper level low will diminish today, clearing skies and keeping prevailing VFR conditions. Easterly flow from Juneau northward will continue to cause rain chances and brief periods of MVFR VIS from passing showers during the morning hours. Beyond the morning hours, clearing skies will cause an increase of winds near the northern portion of Taiya Inlet and the outer coastline. During the overnight hours, a marine layer is expected to move over the eastern gulf and outer coastal areas. At this time, expecting conditions to stay MVFR due to CIGS. && .MARINE...Light winds through the inner channels Wednesday will generally persist although anticipate that Lynn Canal will see an increase of south winds through the afternoon to near 20 kt. Outer coastal waters will continue with west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 kt for coastal waters increasing to 20 kt off west of Prince of Wales Island Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain high over the next several days and are even expected to increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site shows around 9.7 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high water persists. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bezenek LONG TERM....EAL AVIATION...NC MARINE...Bezenek HYDROLOGY...Bezenek Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau