096
FXAK67 PAJK 111337
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
537 AM AKDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain for the southern panhandle, and drier weather
for the northern panhandle are in store for Tuesday as ridging
rebuilds over much of SE AK.

Satellite and radar imagery as of the time of writing depict rain
showers and cloud cover moving across the southern panhandle as a
weak low centered S of Haida Gwaii steers E. As the low continues
to move E through the day, ridging will begin to rebuild across
the panhandle, driven by downstream energy rotating around a broad
area of low pressure located approximately due S of Pilot Point
in the far western Gulf. This will set the stage for some clearing
of the cloud deck across the northern half of the area as
synoptic scale flow becomes more NW. While chances of rain showers
cannot be entirely ruled out for areas north of Frederick Sound,
think that these will be fairly few and far between with the
chances of rain remaining best for the southern panhandle. Some of
the interior coastal mountains and the Misty Fjord area are also
likely to see chances of rain linger as orographic forcing and
residual moisture contribute to shower development.

Temperatures will reach into the 50s and 60s through the day on
Tuesday with the upper 60s possible for some parts of the
northern panhandle should sufficient clearing take place. Winds
in the inner channels of 15 kt are expected through much of the
day, with prevailing N flow - though Lynn Canal may turn more out
of the S through the afternoon and evening time frame. Winds begin
turning back out of the S across the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the ridge begins to move E. Some minor
changes were made to wind directions and speeds, and high
temperatures for the northern half of the panhandle were
increased for Tuesday, but the forecast remains largely on track.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, we will remain in
unsettled weather as low pressure remains over the gulf. A ridge
of high pressure will remain over the panhandle during this time
which will allow for some clearing skies. With this, expect
showers to continue during this time allowing for some clearing
conditions but also the potential for rain. As we move towards the
latter half of the week, the low that remains over the gulf is
expected to shift to the south and east out of the area allowing
for high pressure to build in. One thing that will need to be
watched is the potential for some easterly wave thunderstorms
starting Thursday evening and potentially through Saturday. This
will have to be watched for the potential. For the going forecast,
decreased the winds across the inner channels and across the gulf
coast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue for a majority of the panhandle
Tuesday morning, with ceilings ceilings of just over 3000 ft. The
outer coast and southern panhandle has seen some continued low
clouds due to a system moving towards Haida Gwaii. Showers and IFR
conditions remain possible before clouds begin to rise, though
another short wave feature will bring more rain Tuesday night. This
could lead to high MVFR conditions for the central panhandle as
well, though northern inner channels should see ceilings stay above
3000 ft. The NE gulf coast which could see a shallow marine layer
push back in Tuesday morning before thinning out due to a surface
ridge pushing into the panhandle through the day. Overall looking at
N/NW channel surface winds to pick up due to developing gradient
between surface ridge and system passing to the south of the
panhandle. However, not expecting significant LLWS to develop.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...STJ

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