052
FXAK67 PAJK 242334
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Clouds and some showers
continue to plague the panhandle today. Most, if not all, of the
shower activity today has been across the central inner channels
(from Petersburg to Juneau) from an easterly short wave that came
in from Canada last night. Rainfall amounts have been low for the
most part. Winds remain mostly at or below 15 kt panhandle wide.

Short range forecast is looking at a gradual drying and clearing
trend into Tuesday night. Currently the clouds are sticking around
because low level flow is light onshore. That is expected to
change on Tuesday with a light offshore flow taking over at low
levels. This should start to clear the clouds out of the area
starting in the north as we go into Tuesday afternoon and night.
There are some indications that there is one last easterly short
wave that is trying to move in from Canada on Tuesday night that
may bring some light rain to the Icy Strait and Juneau areas.
Confidence on this feature is somewhat poor so only have 30 to 40
percent pops and mostly cloudy skies at most to account for the
possibility of it.

Winds are still expected to be 15 kt or less for the most part.
Highest winds will still be from the various sea breeze
circulations in the afternoons and evenings.

.LONG TERM...The start of the long term period Wednesday will
feature a slight chance of an easterly wave mentioned at the tail
end of the short range discussion. Once that is resolved, skies
should begin to clear in earnest as high pressure builds over the
Gulf. This will lead to continued light winds of 10 kt or less for
a majority of the inside waters, with the exception being
afternoon/evening sea breeze circulations such as northern Lynn
Canal near Taku Inlet. As the ridge builds, there will be a slight
tightening of the pressure gradient in the SE Gulf with winds out
of the NW for coastal waters reaching around 20 kt. This is
expected to be relatively short lived and peak late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

Overall the big picture is relatively unchanged for the remainder
of the week with daytime maximum temperatures reaching the mid
60s and low to mid 70s in some areas. 850 mb temperatures still
remain on track to be 8 to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of the
week, and subsequently snow levels will be steadily rising to
between 9,000 and 10,000 feet over a majority of the panhandle.
Once again, being on the downstream side of the ridge, a marine
layer is still possible to bring on and off cloudy conditions to
the outer coastal communities which could limit daytime warming.

Model guidance continues to wrestle with the idea of a system
moving into the far southern gulf at the beginning of the weekend
to break up the otherwise benign pattern. While timing and track
remain somewhat scattered, the general consensus is that this
system will not be particularly strong. Winds in the southern and
central gulf will shift to be more easterly and increase in
response to this advancing system, but are expected to remain
below 25 kt. Overall lower forecaster confidence for timing of
precipitation to return to the southern panhandle, with a nebulous
timeframe of sometime this weekend. Stay tuned for the latest
forecast updates as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...Aviation concerns today have been the low clouds.
Morning clouds decks mostly ranged from 1000 to 3000 feet.

Visibility was reduced at times due to rain showers, but on average
the visibility has been 6 to 10 miles today.

Wind speeds aren`t too high, mainly around 5 to 15 knots.

Going forward into tonight, weak trough tracking north will lower
conditions again. So overall, expecting low-end MVFR to IFR again
tonight. For the northern half of the panhandle, isolated and
temporary LIFR cloud decks can`t be completely ruled out with LIFR
probabilities around 10 to 30% during the overnight hours.

Surface high pressure building in the gulf tomorrow will begin to
improve weather conditions late tomorrow morning into tomorrow
afternoon with continued improving weather lasting into mid week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today
due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to
remain high over the next several days and are even expected to
increase as cloud cover diminishes. Flower Mountain Snotel site
shows around 9.7 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet
elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at
higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River
it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next few
days at least and the advisory may need to be extended if high
water persists.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GJS

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