886
FXAK67 PAJK 232304
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/ Showery pattern still in the
works for most of the panhandle through Monday night. Currently
showers are rather widely dispersed with mostly the central
panhandle seeing the most frequent showers. Winds have been rather
light as well with 15 kt being the highest observed.

Chances of showers are expected to continue for most areas through
the short range as E flow aloft and slight onshore flow at low
levels keeps the threat of showers possible. One feature of note
is an easterly short wave that will be moving across the central
panhandle Sunday night into Monday that will bring a period of
enhanced showers and also will be the feature that keeps a chance
of showers around into Monday night. Guidance has moved the
position of this feature slightly northward (more aimed at
Petersburg northward to Juneau) and delayed it compared to
yesterday so adjusted forecast a little to account for that shift.

Winds are expected to remain low through the short range period
with no strong features of note. Highest winds will likely be near
stronger showers and with the usual afternoon sea breeze
circulations.


.LONG TERM...Continuing from the short range, the extended
forecast once again remains relatively unchanged with lingering
showers diminishing into Tuesday, followed by a warming and
drying trend. Models continue to come into agreement for a
surface ridge to build in over the gulf which will bring clearing
skies to the inner channels and overall warmer surface
temperatures due to abundant summer sunshine and warmer
temperatures at 850 mb. High temperatures in general are set to
reach the upper 60s and low to mid 70s for a majority of the
panhandle in the latter half of the week. This will also lead to
generally light winds overall throughout the panhandle. With low
pressure developing during daytime over BC, there remains a slight
chance for showers to develop but are expected to struggle to
make it past the Coast Mountains. Expect the highest winds with
the usual sea breeze circulations in the afternoon and evening
hours, such as Taku Inlet. Being on the downstream side of the
ridge, the exception to otherwise clearer skies would be any
marine layer potentially moving into coastal communities which in
turn could limit daytime warming.

As is often the case, model guidance is not in full agreement on
the longevity of the blocking ridge in the upper levels and
subsequent surface high in the northern gulf. The strength and
position of this high pressure over the northern gulf will
strongly influence when more organized unsettled weather will
make its way back into the panhandle. Ensemble guidance is leaning
towards bringing a system into the southern gulf sometime
Friday/Saturday. Depending upon its strength and track, this could
cause easterly showers to develop and propagate over the southern
panhandle during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Clouds were the main cause for any aviation concerns
today. But even then, conditions were mainly high-end MVFR to VFR
today. Visibility was a bit lower in some places early this
morning, but conditions improved quickly and have held at 10 miles
ever since. Wind speeds got a little stronger in Skagway today
but other TAF sites have been at 5 to 10 knots or less.

Going forward, exiting area of low pressure south of the
panhandle should keep the low clouds in place with some isolated
showers dotting the landscape. Most areas should see conditions
more-or-less remain steady through the overnight with some
improvement late tomorrow morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Chilkat River continues to run right around minor
flood stage today and is expected to continue to fluctuate right
around minor flood stage into the early part of the week.
Temperatures aloft are expected to remain mostly high and are even
expected to increase later in the week as clouds depart the area
leading to more runoff from high elevation snow melt. As such the
river is expected to remain near or above minor flood stage for
the next few days at least. The result is that the Flood Advisory
has been extended again for the Chilkat. It now ends at 7 pm
Wednesday and may be extended further in the coming days depending
on how much snow is left to melt in the upper reaches of the basin.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...GJS

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