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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
856 FXAK67 PAJK 252245 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 245 PM AKDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SHORT TERM.../through Wednesday night/...500mb area of low pressure in the gulf will sit and spin through the short term. As it does, weak troughing will track north through the panhandle. So right from the start, can`t rule out showers for SE AK. At the surface, ridging of high pressure will remain in place in the gulf. Low pressure tracking through western Canada could swing some showers into SE AK from the east. Kept this mainly contained to the Icy Strait area and north Wednesday morning. But as temps warm up, rain showers are possible for the rest of the panhandle, so PoPS were introduced into parts of the southern panhandle as well. Temperature wise, no changes were made in the inherited forecast. 850mb temps are still pretty warm, around 7 to 8C with a warming trend to 9 to 10C. So kept overnight lows near 50 and highs in the 60s to low 70s. There is an exception to the daytime high temp forecast, if clouds thin out more than expected, then current forecasted temperatures would be too cool. For example, Juneau`s forecasted highs tomorrow are around 68 to 72. But the range of potential temps are as low as 70 to 73 to as high as 76 to 78! So if you end up seeing more sun than we are thinking, afternoon highs tomorrow could be upwards of 5 to 7 degrees warmer than current thinking. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Wednesday/ Mid range and extended forecast is rather quiet for the next week. Upper level pattern reflects this with ridging in place over southern Yukon and panhandle with general troughing over the southern gulf. The main body of the jet stream is expected to remain well south of the area. At the surface, initial surface ridging over the gulf will result in drier, warmer weather for the first part of the extended range. Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 60 and 70s over a wide area through Friday at least with some areas seeing it into Saturday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms over Canada will have to be watched for the possibility of them traveling over the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours. For the weekend and beyond a new low will be moving into the SE Gulf spreading a front northeastward through the weekend. Rain and some increased winds will be spreading across the southern panhandle as early as Saturday night with rain then spreading north into Saturday. Damp conditions continue into early next week as the possibly of easterly waves bringing periods of rain into the panhandle continues. && .AVIATION...Ceilings have widely improved through the day Tuesday with the remaining holdout being Yakutat which continues to see influence of marine layer clouds. While VFR conditions should continue tonight for the inside waters, the outer coast will likely see a reduction as the marine layer pushes back in dropping ceilings to 2000 ft or less overnight into Wednesday morning. Icy Strait corridor may also see some higher level light showers move through from the east late tonight into Wednesday, with little impact expected. Aside from localized sea breezes kicking back up by Wednesday afternoon, expect relatively light winds overall with no significant wind concerns. && .MARINE...Due to quiet winds and surface high pressure over the gulf, no big concerns for the marine zones in the short term forecast. Wave heights of 3 to 5 feet in the gulf with inner channel waves forecasted to be around 1 to 3 feet. Northern Lynn could see the highest waves, around 3 feet, due to wind speeds increasing to around 15 knots Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage today due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain high over the next several days. Flower Mountain Snotel site shows around 8.6 inches of SWE still in the snowpack at 2500 feet elevation so there is still a decent amount of snow to melt at higher elevations of the Chilkat basin. As such the Chilkat River it expected to remain above minor flood stage for the next several days, so the flood advisory was extended to Sunday evening. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GJS LONG TERM....EAL AVIATION...STJ MARINE...GJS HYDROLOGY...GJS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau