502
FXAK67 PAJK 121352
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
552 AM AKDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SHORT TERM...The remnants of a decaying low will depart through
the day on Wednesday, leaving behind a few lingering showers, but
otherwise drier weather. Higher chances of rain may return on
Thursday for the northern or central panhandle as an easterly wave
attempts to traverse the Coast Mountains, potentially bringing
with it convective activity.

Satellite and radar imagery indicate an elongated band of cloud
cover with a few scattered showers moving across the panhandle as
of the time of writing. These are the remains of a shortwave
trough - and will continue to wither through the day on Wednesday,
though not before bringing some chances of a few rain showers to
SE AK. Anticipate some clearing of the cloud deck through the day
as the shortwave fully disintegrates, and many areas will see
significant breaks in the clouds. Some mid and upper level clouds
will eventually filter in from the S - orbiting around the
periphery of a broad occluded low (540 decameters at 500 mb)
located in the W Gulf as of the time of writing, but am not
expecting precipitation from them.

Thursday will see some chances of rain showers. These will be
largely focused around the southern panhandle as a weak band of
precipitation from the occluded low attempts to work its way N. A
more significant event could potentially occur late Thursday into
Friday, when an easterly wave attempts to move across the Coast
Mountains from British Columbia into the panhandle. Model- progged
convective parameters look less than impressive - with between
50-70 J/KG of CAPE for the central panhandle, but the potential
for significant breaks in the cloud decks ahead of time enabling
diurnal heating mean that some convective activity is possible
with this wave.

Winds will strengthen to around 15 kt for many of the inner
channels through Wednesday, with the potential for stronger winds
in Lynn Canal, ocean entrances, and the outer coastal waters,
before weakening during the overnight hours. Temperatures will
climb into the 50s and 60s. Some changes were made to wind
directions, and winds were strengthened in a few land-based
locations, but otherwise no major changes were made to the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...For the end of the week, we expect to have a low
continuing to meander around the BC coast and southern panhandle
that should bring some showers to parts of the panhandle. This
could also bring some thunderstorms to the border and areas around
the border for the weekend. As this low slowly moves out of the
area, high pressure will remain off to the west allowing for NW
flow across the gulf. Temperatures across the panhandle are also
expected to respond to the mild weather with some increasing
warmer temperatures as well. This will make things feel more like
summer instead of feeling like spring. For the extended into next
week, conditions are expected to be more likely warmer and drier
for most of the panhandle according to the Climate Prediction
Center.

Big changes to the long term forecast today are a continued decrease
in winds across the area as well as the introduction of a few
possible thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally good flying weather to continue for the
panhandle through Wednesday with ceilings ranging from 2000 to 7000
ft. Overall should see more breaks in the clouds through the day as
a ridge moves over the panhandle. This should also limit shower
development during the day though daytime heating could still lead
to some thermal convective activity. Low level winds will remain
light and onshore through the day before shifting to be more
southerly heading into Thursday.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...STJ

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