421
FXUS61 KAKQ 190139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
939 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure located over the Carolinas will weaken this evening,
and will move offshore tomorrow into Friday. A backdoor cold
front potentially drops back south across the region Friday
night through Saturday. High pressure builds north of the area
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers have decreased in coverage and intensity this evening
  with otherwise warm and humid conditions expected tonight.

High pressure remains centered over New England this evening
but has weakened. Meanwhile, a stationary front lingers over
northern NC. Aloft, a broad trough is over the eastern US, with
an upper low centered over western VA. Showers have decreased in
coverage and intensity this evening, but earlier showers/tstms
did produce locally heavy rain and flooding over s-central VA.
Warm and humid this evening with temperatures in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Mostly cloudy to overcast across most of the area.
Remaining mostly cloudy to overcast with saturated low-levels
along and N of the front, with areas of fog developing late
tonight over central and southern portions of the area. Lows
tonight drop back into the lower 60s NW to upper 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Decreasing rain chances Thursday and Friday.

As the coastal low lifts further to the NE on Thursday, expect a
drier day for most of the area compared to the previous few.
Expect some partial clearing (especially inland) late in the
day. Still, isolated to scattered afternoon showers or storms
are likely across southern Virginia into northeast North
Carolina (40-50% PoPs) as the weakening upper low pushes across
the Carolinas, with the closed low weakening and opening up by
Thu aftn. High temperatures on Thursday will generally be in
the upper 70s area-wide and low temperatures will range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunshine returns in earnest for Friday
with temperatures warming into the upper 70s along the coast to
low 80s inland. A backdoor cold front pushes south into the area
Friday night, bringing a slight chance for a late day/evening
shower over the MD eastern shore. Low temperatures Friday night
range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and cooler weather arrives this weekend into early next
week.

Mainly cooler and drier into early next week. The upper trough
exits well offshore Monday into Tuesday. On its heels, broad
upper level ridging builds across the east coast into Atlantic
Canada and Greenland. At the surface, low pressure lingers off
the Mid-Atlantic coast through the weekend, gradually shifting
south Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure
remains centered in Quebec through Saturday before dropping
south into New England by Monday. This looks to result in a
cooler period over the weekend into early next week, with highs
only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in
the 50s away from the coast. Given the low offshore, coastal
areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts to 25-30 mph over
the weekend into Monday, along with greater cloud cover and
humidity. Should remain mainly dry, but we cannot rule out a
few isolated showers along the coast (20% PoPs) each
afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 940 PM EDT Wednesday...

Weak high pressure remains centered over New England as of 00z,
with a weak stationary front over northern NC. IFR/MVFR cigs
prevail N of the boundary at all TAF sites with spotty light
rain and drizzle. IFR/LIFR cigs are expected to prevail
overnight into Thursday morning. Vsby potentially drops to 3-5sm
after 06z and into early Thursday morning. The wind is mainly NE
5-10kt and will become very light out of the N to NNE overnight.
Gradually improving conditions are expected Thursday with cigs
lifting to MVFR late morning into early aftn, and then VFR by
mid-late aftn. The wind will mainly be NE 5-10kt.

High pressure builds in from the N Thursday night with some
clearing. This could result in some fog late Thursday night into
early Friday morning. Otherwise, gradually improving and
primarily VFR conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters off the
  Delmarva into Thursday.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions appears
  increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

An elongated area of low pressure has developed from Northeast
North Carolina to off the Virginia Capes this afternoon as the
upper level trough over South Carolina slowly begins to lift
northeastward. Gradually, this area of low pressure will become
more defined well off the Delmarva and NJ coast on Thursday. In
the interim, expect conditions to remain rather unchanged with
N to NE flow in the 10 to 15 kt range on the Ches Bay and
Northern Coastal waters and 5 to 10 kt across the adjacent NC
waters. Seas remain elevated from the long time of NE flow
earlier in the week, but are coming down with seas from the
Mouth of the Bay southward in the coastal waters are in the 3 -
4 ft range. Farther north they are slower to drop and are still
in the 4 -7 ft range. So have maintained the SCA for this area
and actually extended the SCA through mid day for the northern 2
coast zones.

By Thursday afternoon, the area of low pressure should be coming
more organized, but will also be relatively stationary a couple
hundred miles off the NJ coast. This will allow for NNW winds to
persist for several days through Saturday. Generally winds
should remain mostly 10 - 15 kt through the period with maybe a
slight increase across the northern coastal waters for Friday
night. But overall, think most areas will stay below SCA levels
through Saturday.

By Saturday night, the coastal low finally begins to move and
actually drops SE heading toward Bermuda. But is it leaves, it
will begin to strength and the winds across the waters will
increase out of the NE with building seas once again. SCA
conditions look likely across the area waters from Sunday
through early next week as the seas jump up into the 5 - 8 ft
range into Tuesday before conditions relax with high pressure
building over the area waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 435 PM EDT Wednesday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach
of the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged
onshore flow will continue to produce nuisance to low-end minor
tidal flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal
rivers through the end of the week. Have issued another round of
Coastal Flood Advisories through the next high tide cycle
tonight through early tomorrow morning for most of the bay and
adjacent tributaries along with the coastal locations across the
VA portion of the Delmarva.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be
needed through the end of the week and into the weekend due to
extended periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Low end
moderate flooding is possible at particularly vulnerable spots
(Bishop`s Head, Oyster), but otherwise staying within minor
flood thresholds so far. However, a building flood tide
Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide
levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances
northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ078-085.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ084-086-
     095>098-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ