496
FXUS61 KAKQ 121844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
244 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes off the coast tonight through Thursday,
bringing a warmup to the region to end the week. A cold front
pushes through Friday night with a chance for a few showers and
storms. Dry with seasonable temperatures over the weekend,
followed by a hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Partly sunny and seasonable this afternoon, mainly dry.

An upper level trough remains well off to the NE this afternoon,
with a subtle/weak shortwave still expected to brush across
northern portions of the area later this afternoon into this
evening. Skies range from partly to mostly sunny across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures are generally in the upper
70s to lower 80s (slightly cooler along the immediate coast),
and will climb a couple more degrees through this afternoon.
Still cannot rule out a stray rain shower through this evening,
mainly across far northwestern portions of the area, but overall
rain chances remain low. Partly cloudy to mostly clear tonight
with lows mostly from 60-65F (slightly warmer SE coastal areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Thursday into Friday with mainly
  dry weather, followed by a chance for storms Friday night.

High pressure moves offshore Thu with temps warming into the
mid 80s to around 90F (warmest inland) under partly- mostly
sunny skies. Lows Thu night

An upper level ridge, originating from the SW CONUS, builds E,
though the trend continues to depict the upper trough across
eastern Canada to be a little stronger, keeping the core of the
upper ridge stays well off to our W/SW over the Plains states.
At the surface, high pressure will remain centered along the
East Coast, gradually sliding offshore. The forecast for Fri
remains on track with deep mixing and 850 mb temperatures rising
to 18-19C. Highs Fri looks to average in the mid 90s well
inland across central VA/metro RIC, with upper 80s to lower 90s
closer to the coast. However, given the continental origin of
this airmass, dew points continue to be fairly low, mixing into
the low-mid 60s, which will act to mitigate the heat index from
being much warmer than the actual air temp. Near the coast, dew
points will be a little higher, but given a rather weak pressure
gradient, winds likely back to the SE and keep actual air
temperatures held in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat Advisories
look unlikely at this time, with peak heat indices in the mid-
upper 90s (perhaps reaching 100F in isolated locations) on Fri
afternoon.

The cold front drops S across the local area Fri evening into
Fri night with at least a chc for showers/storms possible
(highest across N/NE portions of the FA). For now, have
maintained 30-40% PoPs across the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore with 15-25% PoPs farther S/SW. Lows in the 60s to near 70F
(warmest SE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry for the weekend with temperatures close to normal for mid
  June.

- Hot and mainly dry weather returns next week, probably
  persisting through the week.

The upper level trough moves offshore Sat with the center of >
1020mb sfc high pressure moving from the Great Lakes to New
England before sliding off the Mid Atlantic coast Sun. Overall,
it looks like a pleasant weekend with dew pts falling back into
the 50s for most of the area with highs in the low- mid 80s
along the coast and mid to upper 80s inland both Sat and Sun.

The models continue to depict the upper level ridge building
across the East Coast next week. The 00Z/12 ECMWF continues to
be the strongest and most persistent with the ridge while the
GFS is generally the weakest. The GEFS shows a stronger more
persistent ridge than the operational GFS so overall the consensus
favors a prolonged period of hot and mainly dry conditions
across the local area. Highs rise to 90-95F Mon inland (mid/upper
80s along the coast) and a more widespread low-mid 90s on Tue.
While it still does not appear to be that humid (dew pts in
60s), WPC probs are ~50% across interior sections of the local
area at reaching heat indices at or above 100F by Tue- Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions to prevail through the 18Z TAF period. Skies are
variably cloudy this afternoon, with VFR CIGs running around
4-6k ft. Skies become mostly evening later this evening into
tonight. Variable winds will take on a south to southwest
direction at inland sites and south to southeast direction
closer to the coast.

Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail with mainly dry weather
through most of Friday. A cold front crosses the area Friday
evening into Friday night with a low chance for late
day/evening showers or storms possible (best chance NE of KRIC
to KSBY). VFR Saturday into early next week as high pressure
returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions likely persist through late week before a
  cold front crosses the waters late Friday into Saturday.

Weak synoptic flow will allow sea breeze circulations to
augment periods of SE/onshore flow this afternoon and again
Thursday afternoon, generally SE 10-15 kt. Winds diminish
somewhat to 5-10 kt during the evening and overnight hours. The
pressure gradient tightens on Friday ahead of an approaching
cold front but winds are expected to stay in the 10-15 kt range
in the pre-frontal southerly flow. The front moves across the
waters late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds
becoming N and increasing to 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt. A
period of SCA headlines will likely accompany the frontal
passage into the first half of Saturday for the Ches Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound. Confidence in seeing sustained
SCA conditions offshore is lower given the higher wind
thresholds for the ocean waters. Waves in the bay will average
1-2 ft through the period with 2-3 ft possible during periods of
stronger flow through this evening and again Thursday and late
Friday. Seas will average 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft likely during the
stronger surge late Friday into Saturday. Offshore wind
direction will tend to limit seas but a period of 4-5 ft is
possible during this timeframe (especially N and out near 20
nm). Quiet marine conditions return and are likely to persist
well into next week with strong high pressure aloft lingering
over the region.

Low rip current risk continues for all beaches through Thursday.
By Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will help to increase
near-shore wave height and longer period swells for the
northern beaches where a moderate rip risk my be required.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs are not likely for most places Friday, but are
listed below as RIC could be close:

- RIC: 99 (1926)
- ORF: 97 (1945)
- SBY: 97 (1945)
- ECG: 98 (1944)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...JDM/RHR
CLIMATE...AKQ