465
FXUS61 KAKQ 221856
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off slides further off the Mid Atlantic coast
tonight into Sunday as a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. There is a small chance for rain Sunday evening into
Monday, and again later next week, but most locations will
remain dry. Hot temperatures return by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Hot today with heat advisory in place for portions of the area.

The main story for today remains the heat. Latest observations
already show mid to upper 90s across portions of central
Virginia and the Richmond Metro under full sunshine. Closer to
the coast and across the SE, temperatures are in the low to mid
90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As expected,
we have seen some decent mixing across W/NW portions of the
forecast area which has caused dewpoints to drop back into the
low to mid 60s. This will result in (slightly) lower heat index
values (closer to ~100 F) across these areas, but am not making
any changes to the Heat Advisory today with air temperatures
approaching 100 F under full sunshine. Lows tonight will not
provide a ton of relief and only drop into the mid 70s inland
and upper 70s along the bay/ocean. Lows tonight may challenge
record high minimum temperatures in spots, see the climate
section below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another hot day on Sunday with maximum temperatures in the
mid/upper 90s to around 100 F.

- Isolated to scattered storms possible later Sunday through Monday
afternoon.

- Drier air filters into the region for Tuesday.

The core of the heat is expected to shift E/SE some for Sunday,
though hot temps will remain over the entire forecast area. High
temperatures will be similar to today. Highs range from the mid to
upper 90s for most of the area to around 100 F in the urban corridor
within and surrounding Richmond. Clouds increase some later in the
day across the NW so something to keep an eye on there. Guidance
continues to advertise higher dew points Sunday due to strengthening
southwesterly sfc flow. Soundings still show more moisture at and
above the surface. This would lead to higher levels of humidity and
thus heat indices in the afternoon. The current forecast has heat
indices between 103 and 106 F, with the highest values focused
around the Richmond Metro into eastern Virginia and including
portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore. Wet bulb global temperatures
(WBGT) in the upper 80s to around 90 suggest the potential for
significant heat stress for those outdoors and especially those
participating in strenuous activities. Heat Advisories are in effect
for the same locations on Sunday as today, with the addition of the
Maryland Eastern Shore. May need to add northeast NC into the the
Advisory as well, but will let later shifts take a final look. We
should have enough mixing across our SW counties to keep heat index
values "only" around 100 F. There again will not be much relief from
the heat Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are still a
possibility Sunday afternoon and especially in the evening and
overnight hours ahead of a weak cold front. Also expecting a weak
sfc trough to set up east of the mountains. As is typically the
case, the NAM is most aggressive regarding convective coverage and
intensity. This could be related the model being slightly more
amplified and having higher dew points. SPC continues the marginal
risk for the northern third of the area. This makes sense as shear
is higher with northern extent (though it only peaks at ~20 kt).
Overall, this suggests loosely organized storms capable of strong to
marginally severe wind gusts given steep low-level lapse rates and
high DCAPE. PoPs are 20-30% in the afternoon, increasing to 30-60%
(highest N and NE) in the evening and early overnight period. Chance
PoPs linger through most of the night with the boundary nearby.
Still, this does not look to be a widespread beneficial rainfall to
alleviate the developing drought over the area, with only ~0.10-
0.20" of QPF in the forecast for portions of the area through Sunday
night.

The front will be located across the SE Monday and have kept the
trend going from previous forecasts with the best chances for
showers and storms further SE. If current trends in the guidance
continue, it may stay dry for most of the area, outside of far SE VA
and NE NC. There will be ample instability along and ahead of the
front so any storm again will be capable of producing strong to
marginally severe wind gusts, in addition to frequent lightning and
heavy rain. It also continues to look hot with high temps in the low-
mid 90s. The highest dew points will reside across the SE VA and NE
NC and heat indices of around 105 F are expected for those
locations. The one caveat is storms could initiate as early as late
morning or early afternoon in these areas given the
moist/hot/unstable airmass, potentially preventing the high-end temp
potential from being realized. Overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s
inland and lower 70s closer to the coast.

Slightly cooler Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s
along the coast to the lower 90s inland. It will feel noticeably
less humid with dewpoints dipping back into the lower 60s and upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- The heat builds again midweek, with temperatures again increasing
well into the 90s.

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The hot weather returns again for Wednesday and we again could be
talking about temps nearing 100 F, though the latest NBM is a degree
or two shy of triple digits. Heat indices increase to 100-105 F, but
this is again dependent on the degree of BL mixing in the afternoon.
An isolated storm or two could also spill into our western counties.
By Wednesday night and Thursday, another cold front approaches from
the NW and will continue chance PoPs for the area. Widespread
rainfall is not expected with this feature and probabilities of such
remain quite low through the extended period. Guidance is warmer in
the late week period and most areas may stay in the lower 90s.

The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry
spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash
drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or
drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Prevailing VFR through the 18z TAF period. FEW to SCT cumulus
around ~5k ft has developed over SE terminals with mainly SKC
skies elsewhere. Mainly SKC skies expected tonight outside of
another low-end chance of some MVFR CIGs potentially impacting
ECG closer to sunrise. S/SSE winds 5-10 kt this afternoon (E-SE
along the coast with the sea breeze). Dry and VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon, as high pressure
remains centered off the coast.

Outlook: There is a low chance for some isolated to widely
scattered storms Sunday evening and again on Monday afternoon
into Monday evening which could result in localized sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, prevailing VFR flying conditions are
expected through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been raised for the bay starting early Sunday morning
for elevated southerly winds. SCAs start for the coastal waters,
lower James, and Currituck Sound Sunday afternoon.

-Benign marine conditions expected for the early week period.

-Moderate Rip Current Risk continues through tomorrow.

High pressure remains anchored off the SE coast this afternoon.
Latest wind obs reflect a sea breeze starting up with SSE winds
along the coast with winds of 10-15kt. Meanwhile, still seeing SSW
winds around 10kt in the rivers and bay. Southerly winds remain
breezy around 15kt in the bay and coastal water (~10kt in the
rivers) through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight
hours. Will likely see a slight uptick in gusts around sunset
tonight, so a couple of hours with gusts around 20kt in the bay will
be possible. Winds will increase during the early morning hours
(before sunrise) as a weak front approaches. SCAs have been raised
for the bay starting at 4am for gusts up to 25kt. The front
approaches the region Sunday and crosses local waters early Monday
morning. Elevated S/SW winds are expected as the pressure gradient
tightens between the front and high pressure offshore and the LLJ
increases to 30-40kt. Winds will be 15-20kt (highest in N coastal
waters) Sun morning through early afternoon. Through the rest of the
afternoon and into the overnight hours, the rivers and bay will stay
in the 15-20kt (gusts to 25kt) range, but winds over coastal waters
pick up to 20-25kt (gusts around 30kt). SCAs for the coastal waters,
lower James, and Currituck Sound will go into effect early Sunday
afternoon. Will let the night shift evaluate the need for SCAs on
the remaining river zones given marginal nature there.

Lighter winds are expected behind the front as they turn to the NW.
Winds will be around 10kt Monday with a sea breeze likely to form in
the afternoon, especially at along the southern coast line (VA Beach
and south). High pressure slides overhead Tuesday, which will lead
to some variation in wind direction through the morning, but will
generally be onshore (10kt or less) by the afternoon. May see
another round of increased winds ahead of a front mid-week, but
looks to be sub-SCA for now.

Seas are around 3ft this afternoon and will increase to 3-4ft later
this evening. As winds increase Sunday evening, seas will increase to
5-6ft in northern waters and 4-5ft in southern. Seas diminish
through the day Monday, falling back to 2-3ft by the evening. Waves
are 1-2ft this afternoon. Waves will pick up to 2-3ft this evening
and remain there through early Monday.

Rips: A moderate rip current risk will continue through Sunday.
Confidence is of moderate is higher for the northern beaches Sunday,
but southerly flow and a longshore current may preclude a high risk.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for today, Saturday, June 22:

- RIC: 101 (1933)
- ORF: 99 (1981)
- SBY: 98 (1988)
- ECG: 98 (1942)

Record high minimum temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 76 (2010)
- ORF: 79 (2015)
- SBY: 75 (1925)
- ECG: 78 (2015)

Record high temperatures for Sunday, June 23:

- RIC: 101 (1988)
- ORF: 99 (2015)
- SBY: 99 (1988)
- ECG: 99 (2011)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ048-061-062-
     064-068-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-
     509>525.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-061-062-
     064-068-069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-
     509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ/AM
CLIMATE...AKQ