762
FXUS61 KAKQ 230737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
337 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast
today. A cold front approaches later this afternoon and tonight
from the west, crossing the area early Monday. There is a
chance for showers or storms this evening and Monday, and again
later next week, but many locations will remain dry. Hot
temperatures persist through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hot today with heat advisory in place for portions of the area.

- Isolated storms in the later afternoon and evening could produce
  strong wind gusts.

The hottest temperatures of the forecast period are expected today
as SSW surface flow strengthens across the area. This is in response
to an approaching cold front and low pressure to our W/NW and high
pressure well offshore. While there will be upper-level height
falls, thickness tools and 850 mb temps of 20-23 C continue to
support highs in the upper 90s for most of the area. Still cannot
rule out a few locations nearing 100 F, but most are expected to
fall just short. These air temps will be very similar to yesterday.
However, closer to the coast, the increased SSW flow will push temps
a couple degrees higher this afternoon. Also am expecting dew points
at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday (upper 60s-low 70s),
which yields heat indices in the 103-108 F range for most of the
area (outside of the very immediate coast). Have therefore expanded
the heat advisory to include the remainder of our SW counties, NE
NC, and Accomack and Northampton Counties on the eastern shore. Wet
bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) will also rise in the upper 80s
areawide, suggesting the potential for significant heat stress for
those outdoors and especially those performing any strenuous
activity. Continue to leave out OBX Currituck and the MD Beaches
from the advisory due to oceanic influences. The heat advisory is in
effect from 11 AM this morning through 8 PM this evening. Starting
the day mostly sunny with scattered-broken high clouds later this
afternoon and evening.

The other thing to keep an eye on will be any pre-frontal afternoon
or evening convection. With the height falls and moderate sfc-based
instability, could see a few storms develop along and E of the
higher terrain. However, the strongest forcing and associated wind
shear is displaced well N of the area, suggesting only isolated or
widely scattered storms at best. CAMs generally agree with the low
coverage idea, though there is a good deal of spread on where
exactly any storms would develop or move. Have low-end chance PoPs
later this aftn and evening across the W and NW, increasing to 30-
50% for most of the area late this evening and tonight along the
actual front. With plentiful DCAPE, any storm could produce strong
to marginally severe wind gusts (especially this afternoon and
evening). SPC has a marginal risk across the N, with a slight risk
just N of our MD Eastern Shore counties. Aerial QPF will be low and
limited those areas lucky enough to see convection. Lows tonight
will be very mild and in the low-mid 70s (locally upper 70s/around
80 F in the urban corridors and along the coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot Monday, though most of the area will fall short
  of heat advisory criteria.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible across far SE VA
  and NE NC on Monday as well.

- Dry weather returns Tuesday with hot conditions persisting.

The front slowly progresses SE early Monday. However, it will slow
or briefly stall over southeastern portions of the area. Along and
ahead of the front, sfc temps in the 90s and dew points in the low-
mid 70s will support plentiful sfc-based instability. In fact, a few
models show pockets of 2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE in far SE VA and NE
NC by late morning/early afternoon. While shear remains on the weak
side (~20 kt), this deep instability and continued high DCAPE could
support strong updrafts and damaging downbursts capable of sporadic
wind damage. SPC has newly introduced a marginal risk for svr wx
across the far SE. In terms of PoPs, have the highest (60-70%) over
coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound. Further N and W into SE
VA, there remains some uncertainty on coverage and have 30-50% PoPs.
Most CAMs eventually depict rather aggressive upscale growth of
storms as they slowly push S/SE later in the afternoon. Heavy rain
and frequent lightning also will be likely in any storm. HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 3" in 3 hr are elevated in NE NC but
expect recent dry conditions to mitigate any widespread flash
flooding concerns. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast Monday
with highs in the low-mid 90s. Dew points also drop off into the
upper 50s by the afternoon in central VA, so no concerns here in
terms of heat headlines. Also don`t think a heat advisory will be
needed across the SE as the aforementioned convection may put an
early end to the heat/humidity. More relief expected Mon night with
lower humidity and lows in the low-mid 60s.

Weak high pressure will settle near the area behind the front for
Tuesday. Expecting dry wx all areas with very comfortable humidity
levels. Still, it will remain on the hot side with afternoon highs
in the low 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast. Lows Tue night in
the upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- The hottest day in the extended period is Wednesday with high
  temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

The hot weather returns again for Wednesday and we again could be
talking about temps nearing 100 F, though the latest NBM remains a
few degrees shy of triple digits. Heat indices look to be kept in
check (~100 F at most) due to lower afternoon humidity levels. An
isolated storm or two could also spill into our western or northern
counties, especially later in the day. By Wednesday night and
Thursday, another cold front approaches from the NW. The 00z global
model suite is not enthusiastic about widespread rainfall from this
front (being cut off from most of the deeper Gulf of Mexico
moisture) and generally keeps a good portion of the area dry.
Probabilities of >0.50" from the NBM are only 20-40% across the area
and highest in srn VA and NE NC. Will keep the highest PoPs across
the SE where the FROPA looks to occur with the afternoon daytime
heating window. The heat is expected to build again to end the week
and into next weekend as GEFS/EPS runs show an upper-level dome of
high pressure (594+ dm) expanding across much of the S-central and
SE CONUS. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 90s, with mid-
upper 90s potentially returning for the weekend. Overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s or lower 70s through the extended period.

The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry
spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash
drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or
drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...

Prevailing VFR across area terminals looks to persist through
the 06z TAF period. Only sky cover to deal with early this
morning will be thin, high clouds. There is a low chance of
brief MVFR CIGs or VSBY at ECG around sunrise, but confidence is
too low for a prevailing group of this. SSW winds average 8-13
kt through ~12z, becoming gusty to ~20-25 kt by late morning and
the afternoon. Gusty winds last into this evening and tonight.
Depending on any low- level inversions, cannot rule out some
low-level wind shear tonight. There is also low chance for some
isolated to widely scattered storms Sunday evening, with perhaps
some better coverage of showers in the 06-12z timeframe Monday.

Outlook: Isolated to widely scattered chances for showers and
storms return on Monday afternoon into Monday evening, mainly
focused along coastal terminals with some localized sub- VFR
conditions possible. Otherwise, prevailing VFR flying conditions
are expected through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect for the entire marine area. Today into
  tonight for the Ches. Bay and this afternoon into tonight for
  the remainder of the marine area.

- Benign marine conditions expected for the early to mid week
  period.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk continues today.

High pressure is centered well off the Southeast coast
early this morning. Meanwhile, low pressure is centered over the
northern Great Lakes with a cold front trailing back through the
Midwest. The wind is primarily SSW 10-15kt early this morning with
occasionally up to 15-20kt for the middle Ches. Bay and northern
ocean zones. Seas range from 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N with waves in the
Ches. Bay ~2ft. Low pressure tracks well N of the region today into
tonight, with the weakening cold front approaching from the NW today
and then settling into the area tonight. A SSW wind will initially
remain 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt through midday, before
increasing to 15-25kt later this aftn into tonight (20-25kt over the
ocean and Ches. Bay this evening) as a 35-45kt LLJ passes across the
region in advance of the cold front. Minimal gustiness is expected
outside of any tstms as a very warm airmass advects over relatively
cool water. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N later this aftn into
tonight. SCAs for the Ches. Bay go into effect at 4 AM, with the
remaining zones going into effect at 1 PM, with SCAs stepping down
later tonight into Monday morning (latest for the ocean where seas
will be slow to subside).

The cold front pushes offshore Monday into Monday night as weak high
pressure builds in from the N. The wind will shift to NW 10-15kt
across the northern tier of the area Monday. In vicinity of the
coasts of SE VA/NE NC, the wind will initially be WSW early Monday,
and then become light and locally variable in the aftn as the front
stalls. By Monday night, the wind becomes NNW 10-15kt for most of
the marine area. The front washes out in vicinity of the Carolina
coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected. High pressure
rebuilds offshore by the middle of the week with sub-SCA southerly
flow returning. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft Monday night into the
middle of the week with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Another
weakening cold front pushes through the region Thursday into
Thursday night. An increase in a SSW wind is possible ahead of the
cold front Wednesday night along with seas/waves building to 3-4ft
N/2-3ft. Marginal SCA conditions are possible, primarily in the Ches.
Bay.

Rip currents: A moderate rip risk will continue today. However, an
increasing SSW wind will likely lead to a longshore current and
building nearshore waves, especially for the northern beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high minimum temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 76 (2010)
- ORF: 79 (2015)
- SBY: 75 (1925)
- ECG: 78 (2015)

Record high temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 101 (1988)
- ORF: 99 (2015)
- SBY: 99 (1988)
- ECG: 99 (2011)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
     509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...