932
FXUS61 KAKQ 240058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
858 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches late tonight from the west, slowly
crossing the area Monday. There is a chance for showers or
storms late this evening into Monday. Drier weather returns
later Monday into Tuesday, but humidity and temperatures
increase yet again for Wednesday. Another cold front approaches
the region later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 855 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated storms late this evening into the overnight. A
  stronger storm or two will be possible over the eastern shore.
  Strong wind gusts would be the main hazard in any
  thunderstorms.

- Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms on
  Monday across far SE VA and NE NC.

Latest weather analysis reveals low pressure over southern
Quebec into northern New England. The trailing surface cold
front extends SSW across the interior northeast into the Ohio
and TN River Valleys and will cross the central Appalachians
over the next few hours. A prefrontal trough remains in place
across E PA into the VA piedmont this evening.

Scattered showers and storms developed across the region early
this evening along the pre-frontal trough, aided by some weak
DPVA and strong surface-based instability associated with the
hot temps. The Heat Advisory has been allowed to drop off on
time with temperatures slowly dropping off.

Chances for isolated to widely scattered showers continue into
late tonight as the front nudges into the region mainly after
midnight. Best chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two will be across the north coincident with the better shear.
Another mild night tonight with lows generally in the mid to
upper 70s.

Monday...The front slowly progresses SE across the region
tonight through tomorrow. However, it will slow or briefly stall
over southeastern portions of the area. Along and ahead of the
front, temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew points
in the low-mid 70s will support plentiful sfc-based
instability. In fact, a few models still show pockets of
2500-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE in far SE VA and NE NC by late
morning/early afternoon. While shear remains on the weak side
(~20 kt), this deep instability and continued high DCAPE could
support strong updrafts and damaging downbursts capable of
sporadic wind damage. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for svr
wx across the far SE. In terms of PoPs, have kept the highest
(60-70%) over coastal NE NC and along the Albemarle Sound.
Further N and W into SE VA, there remains some uncertainty on
coverage and have 30-50% PoPs. Most CAMs eventually depict
rather aggressive upscale growth of storms as they slowly push
S/SE later in the afternoon. Heavy rain and frequent lightning
also will be likely in any storm. HREF neighborhood
probabilities for 3" in 3 hr are elevated in NE NC but expect
recent dry conditions to mitigate any widespread flash flooding
concerns. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast Monday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points also drop off
into the upper 50s by the afternoon in central VA, so no
concerns here in terms of heat headlines. Also don`t think a
heat advisory will be needed across the SE as the aforementioned
convection may put an early end to the heat/humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm with lower humidity on Tuesday.

- Hot conditions return for Wednesday with heat index values ranging
from 100 to 105 F.

The front drops south of the region Monday night as weak high
pressure settles into the region from the NW. Cooler and more
comfortable Monday night compared to the past few nights with low
temperatures dropping into the upper 50s across our NW counties with
generally low to mid 60s elsewhere (upper 60s to lower 70s at the
coast). Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday with high pressure over the area. While air temperatures
will be in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will
only be in the 50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The weather returns again for Wednesday with temperatures
rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area (possibly
100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat indices increase to 100-
105 F Wednesday afternoon and Heat Advisories may be needed. At this
time generally dry weather is expected for Wednesday, though an
isolated shower or storm may try to spill into our northern western
counties as another cold front approaches from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions developing across most of the area.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, another cold front approaches from
the NW. The 12z global model suite is still not enthusiastic about
widespread rainfall from this front (being cut off from most of the
deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture) and generally keeps a good portion
of the area dry. Probabilities of >0.50" from the NBM are 20-40%
across the area and highest in srn VA and NE NC. Will keep the
highest PoPs across the SE where the FROPA looks to occur with the
afternoon daytime heating window. Guidance has trended slightly
cooler with high temperatures on Thursday and Friday with highs
ranging from the 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland. Hotter
weather looks to return for next weekend as an upper-level dome of
high pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS.

The upcoming dry conditions will only exacerbate the recent dry
spell and it looks to set us up for what is considered a "flash
drought". More information on this can be found on CPC`s
Probabilistic Hazards Outlook page at www.ncep.cpc.noaa.gov or
drought.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 855 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 00z TAF
period, with primarily VFR conditions outside of any
convection. Gusty SSW winds this evening, with gusts of 20-25
knots. Slightly higher rain chances after 06z, especially across
the east and southeast. Some MVFR CIGs will be possible at the
southeastern TAF sites as we approach sunrise. Scattered
chances for showers and storms return late Monday morning into
Monday afternoon, mainly focused along coastal terminals with
some localized sub-VFR conditions possible. Winds flip around to
the NW Monday morning into Monday afternoon in the wake of the
front.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR flying conditions are expected Monday
night through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect across all marine zones this afternoon through
tonight for elevated SW winds.

- Benign marine conditions expected Monday through most of
Wednesday. Additional SCAs possible Wednesday night.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk for the rest of today, then subsiding to
low risk to start the week.

High pressure that was previously anchored off the SE coast has
moved farther offshore today as a weak front approaches the local
area. A tightening pressure gradient between these features is
allowing for elevated winds this afternoon. Latest obs reflect SW
winds at 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Thus, SCAs are in effect
across all marine zones. Later this evening, winds will likely
increase a bit as the gradient tightens further and a 30-45kt LLJ
kicks in ahead of the front. Between sunset tonight and just before
sunrise tomorrow, winds will be 20-25kt (gusts to around 30kt) over
coastal waters and around 20kt in the bay and rivers. The front will
cross local waters tomorrow morning, turning winds to the NW. Winds
will be lighter at 5-10kt in southern waters and 10-15kt in northern
waters. Also, a sea breeze will likely form in the late afternoon
along the Virginia Beach/Northern OBX coast. NW winds persist into
Tuesday morning. High pressure passes overhead Tuesday, so winds
will be lighter and vary in direction through the day. Winds turn
back to the S Tuesday night as high pressure slides offshore and
increases to around 15kt. Additional SCAs may be needed Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning as another front approaches.

Seas are gradually increasing this afternoon with northern buoys
showing 4-5ft. Southern coastal waters still at 2-3ft as of latest
obs. Seas will increase tonight to 5-6ft (7ft out near 20nm) N of
Parramore Island and 3-5ft to the S. Seas should fall back fairly
quickly tomorrow, with 2-3ft expected by tomorrow evening. Seas will
stay at 2-3ft through at least Wednesday. Waves are starting out at
2-3ft this afternoon and will increase in the bay to 3-4ft
overnight. Waves will fall back to 1-2ft tomorrow and stay there
through the first half of the week.

Rips: A Moderate Rip Current risk persists today across all area
beaches for the rest of the afternoon. However, an increasing SSW
wind will likely lead to a longshore current and building nearshore
waves, especially for the northern beaches

&&

.CLIMATE...
Still have a shot at a record high minimum temperature for the
date at Richmond. A record high max temp for the date was tied
at Norfolk.

Record high minimum temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 76 (2010) (Low as of 01z: 78)
- ORF: 79 (2015) (78)
- SBY: 75 (1925) (74)
- ECG: 78 (2015) (76)


Record high temperatures for today (Sunday, June 23):

- RIC: 101 (1988) (Today`s High: 99)
- ORF: 99 (2015)  (*Record Tied: 99)
- SBY: 99 (1988)  (96)
- ECG: 99 (2011)  (94)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AJZ/AM
CLIMATE...