730
FXUS61 KALY 202319
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
719 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and muggy weather will continue through the evening
hours, with showers and thunderstorms possible.  Some storms will be
severe and capable of producing damaging winds, hail and heavy
downpours.  While it will remain warm and humid on Friday, it won`t
be quite as hot as the past few days, with some additional showers
and thunderstorms possible, especially for southern areas. Continued
warm and sticky weather will continue into the weekend, with some
additional showers and thunderstorms possible each day, mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 719 PM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #438 remains in
effect for northern areas, but will be expiring soon. One
lingering line of showers and thunderstorms continues to impact
parts of southern VT, the Berkshires and the Taconics, but is
continuing to move eastward. There have been some embedded
stronger elements within this convection, showing signs of
damaging winds, especially across the southern portion of the
line. In addition, heavy downpours and frequent lightning has
been ongoing with this activity. This line should be east of the
area over the next hour or two and the threat for strong
convection should be over by that time. A few lingering isolated
cells can`t be ruled out over the rest of the area through the
late evening hours, but any additional activity looks to be sub-
severe.

The strong upper level ridge (around 597 dm) is centered just
south of the region over the mid Atlantic States. This ridge has
been slowly drifting southward and our area is on the northern
fringe of the strongest ridging, allowing for weak disturbances
to rotate around the northern edge. The heights and warm temps
aloft have allowed for very warm temps again today, with valley
areas reaching the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints in the
lower 70s, heat index values had reached around 100 degrees late
in the afternoon, which is firmly in Heat Advisory criteria.
Heat Advisories will be allowed to expire at 8 PM, as the
loss of daytime heating and cooling from thunderstorm activity
is allowing for heat index values to fall below advisory
criteria.

Once thunderstorm activity winds down by later this evening, it
will be quieter weather for the rest of the overnight hours.
Some lingering clouds are expected, although it will remain very
muggy. Any areas that saw rain will be susceptible to the
development of patchy fog. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy
and mild with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, the strong ridging will continue to shift further
south and west, becoming centered over the Tennessee Valley.
Our area will continue to be on the northern fringe of this
ridging and closer to the zonal flow to the north. A weak
boundary to the north and west will be dropping southward across
the region on Friday. During daytime heating, some additional
showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and
evening hours, especially for southern parts of the area.
Overall, lapse rates don`t look as impressive as Thursday and
shear is still fairly weak. A few strong storms will gusty winds
can`t be ruled out for southern areas, but the threat for severe
weather looks more isolated. Once again, high PWATs could lead
to heavy downpours again on Friday, so can`t rule out some
ponding of water or an isolated flash flood. Temps look a little
cooler for most areas compared to Thursday, with 80s to near 90
for most spots. However, the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT may
still reach the lower 90s, so will allow for the Heat Advisory
to continue for those areas through the evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish on Friday evening with
the loss of daytime heating. As a result, mainly dry weather is
expected on Friday night with a partly cloudy sky and some
patchy fog.  It will still be mild and muggy with lows still in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

The boundary will be draped across the area on Saturday. This
should allow for more cloud cover, although the front may be
gradually drifting back northward as a warm front at some point
during the day Saturday into Saturday night. Some more showers
and thunderstorms are possible, but activity looks scattered and
the best coverage will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. The severe threat looks fairly low on Saturday, but
again, can`t rule out any downpours leading to ponding of water.
Highs will generally be in the 80s and heat index values should
stay under Heat Advisory criteria. Will keep a chance for
showers or t-storms into Sat night with lows in the upper 60s,
along with continued muggy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued warm and humid conditions are expected to be in place
at the start of the long term period on Sunday. Valley areas
will be reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and
some heat index values could be approaching advisory criteria in
a few southern areas again. As a frontal boundary approaches
from the west, another round of showers and t-storms look to
occur during the afternoon and evening hours. With the expected
warm and humid conditions, there should be enough instability in
place, so will need to watch the threat for some stronger storms
once again as well. There are some timing differences in the
guidance regarding when the front moves through the area, as it
could be crossing on Sunday night or even early Monday, but
there should be enough forcing for an organized line or cluster
of storms on Sunday.

Will keep POPs in the chance range for Sunday night into Monday,
as the front and associated trough moves across the region. Once
the front clears the area, less humid air will be moving towards
the area, although this will be a fairly subtle change and temps
will still be above normal. By late Monday, skies will be
clearing out as well and the threat for precip will be lowering
as well.  Will still keep temps well into the 80s for Monday.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday with high pressure
nearby. While it should be rain-free, temps will still be rather
warm (valley areas in the mid to upper 80s) and it will be
fairly humid (dewpoints into the 60s) as well.

The next system will impact the region around Wednesday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms. In addition, temps
will be fairly warm once again with humid conditions. More
significant cooling and drying is expected towards Thursday
behind this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some convection will still be moving through KPSF over the next
hour or two. There could be brief period of IFR conditions there
due to low visibility within rainfall, along with some brief
gusty winds. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorm are moving away
from the region, with just some lingering sct mid and high level
clouds. Winds are becoming light and variable for all terminals.

Overnight, the humid conditions and recent rainfall will lead to
the development of some fog at KPSF and KGFL. The fog may reach
IFR conditions, with visibility under 1SM at times. Fog is
less likely at KALB and KPOU since they avoided the rainfall
today, so will keep VFR conditions for those sites through the
overnight. Any fog will end by shortly after daybreak (10z-11z).

On Friday, flying conditions will be VFR in the morning with
just sct high clouds and light winds. The clouds will increase
by afternoon, along with some scattered showers or t-storms in
the area. For now, will just mention a VCSH due to uncertainty
regarding extent and coverage, but brief reduction to the flying
conditions are possible due to some convection in the area.
Surface winds will continue to be fairly light and variable
outside of any thunderstorm activity.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ064>066.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis