021
FXUS61 KALY 210619
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
219 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid once again today with dangerous heat
mainly for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County. After
morning sun, scattered areas of rain and thunderstorms develop again
this afternoon with some stronger storms capable of producing
damaging winds and heavy downpours possible before storms diminish
this evening. Summer warmth, humidity, and afternoon showers and
storms continue this weekend with increasing confidence for strong
to severe weather on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Mainly clear skies tonight have supported patchy to locally
dense fog, especially in areas that experienced rain yesterday.
Otherwise, it remains muggy and quite warm with temperatures
staying steady through sunrise in the mid-60s to low-70s.

While regional radar is quiet, a few isolated showers continue
near the international border associated with our next sfc
boundary that will slowly press southward through the early
morning hours. There is some sfc convergence along this boundary
as winds in southern Canada and parts of the North Country have
shifted to the north while winds south of the boundary are
calm. We will be monitoring the southward progression of this
boundary through sunrise as some CAMs suggest showers could
reach into parts of our western and southern Adirondacks
zones by early morning. Maintained chance POPs in these areas
for this reason.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

** Heat Advisory in effect for the mid Hudson Valley and
 Litchfield County, CT through 8 PM today. **

On Friday, the strong ridging will continue to shift further
south and west, becoming centered over the Tennessee Valley.
Our area will continue to be on the northern fringe of this
ridging and closer to the zonal flow to the north. A weak
boundary to the north and west will be dropping southward across
the region on Friday. During daytime heating, some additional
showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and
evening hours, especially for southern parts of the area.
Overall, lapse rates don`t look as impressive as Thursday and
shear is still fairly weak. A few strong storms will gusty winds
can`t be ruled out for southern areas, but the threat for severe
weather looks more isolated. Once again, high PWATs could lead
to heavy downpours again on Friday, so can`t rule out some
ponding of water or an isolated flash flood. Temps look a little
cooler for most areas compared to Thursday, with 80s to near 90
for most spots. However, the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT may
still reach the lower 90s, so will allow for the Heat Advisory
to continue for those areas through the evening hours.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish on Friday evening with
the loss of daytime heating. As a result, mainly dry weather is
expected on Friday night with a partly cloudy sky and some
patchy fog.  It will still be mild and muggy with lows still in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

The boundary will be draped across the area on Saturday. This
should allow for more cloud cover, although the front may be
gradually drifting back northward as a warm front at some point
during the day Saturday into Saturday night. Some more showers
and thunderstorms are possible, but activity looks scattered and
the best coverage will be during the afternoon and evening
hours. The severe threat looks fairly low on Saturday, but
again, can`t rule out any downpours leading to ponding of water.
Highs will generally be in the 80s and heat index values should
stay under Heat Advisory criteria. Will keep a chance for
showers or t-storms into Sat night with lows in the upper 60s,
along with continued muggy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued warm and humid conditions are expected to be in place
at the start of the long term period on Sunday. Valley areas
will be reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and
some heat index values could be approaching advisory criteria in
a few southern areas again. As a frontal boundary approaches
from the west, another round of showers and t-storms look to
occur during the afternoon and evening hours. With the expected
warm and humid conditions, there should be enough instability in
place, so will need to watch the threat for some stronger storms
once again as well. There are some timing differences in the
guidance regarding when the front moves through the area, as it
could be crossing on Sunday night or even early Monday, but
there should be enough forcing for an organized line or cluster
of storms on Sunday.

Will keep POPs in the chance range for Sunday night into Monday,
as the front and associated trough moves across the region. Once
the front clears the area, less humid air will be moving towards
the area, although this will be a fairly subtle change and temps
will still be above normal. By late Monday, skies will be
clearing out as well and the threat for precip will be lowering
as well.  Will still keep temps well into the 80s for Monday.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday with high pressure
nearby. While it should be rain-free, temps will still be rather
warm (valley areas in the mid to upper 80s) and it will be
fairly humid (dewpoints into the 60s) as well.

The next system will impact the region around Wednesday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms. In addition, temps
will be fairly warm once again with humid conditions. More
significant cooling and drying is expected towards Thursday
behind this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Through 06z Saturday...Fog has already formed at GFL and PSF,
with both sites seeing LIFR conditions within the past hour.
Expecting patchy fog with periods of IFR or lower vsbys and cigs
at GFL through shortly after sunrise. At PSF, fog will be more
persistent with through sunrise with LIFR to VLIFR vsbys and
cigs. Not expecting fog at POU. At ALB, there is a small chance
for some fog/mist to form for a couple hours around sunrise.
Confidence in fog formation at ALB is low, so will just hint at
it with an MVFR tempo group, but will note that if fog forms
then up to a couple hours of IFR cigs/vsbys are possible.

Fog lifts by 10-12z this morning, with a return to VFR conditions at
all TAF sites with just SCT mid and high clouds around through the
morning. We will once again have scattered showers and storms
develop during the afternoon. Have included VCSH groups at all
terminals and prob 30 groups for POU/PSF where chances for a storm
look highest this afternoon and evening. Prevailing VFR conditions
expected this afternoon, although any showers or storms moving over
the terminals could lead to brief IFR vsby reductions. Showers and
storms diminish after sunset with a return to VFR conditions,
although areas that receive rain this afternoon and evening may have
fog to contend with again tonight.

Winds will be light and variable through mid-morning, increasing to
around 5 kt from the north/northeast at ALB/GFL and the northwest at
PSF and remaining variable at POU. Gusty winds are possible with any
thunderstorms. Winds become light and variable again after sunset
tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main