Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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824 FXUS61 KALY 192030 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 430 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions persist into tomorrow before areas along and east of the Hudson River could finally see some scattered showers Saturday. Another dry stretch is anticipated for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week before chances for showers increase for the middle of next week. And while temperatures will remain warmer than normal into the first half of the weekend, a cooling trend will drop temperatures closer to normal beginning Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Mid-level ridging encompassing much of the region and adjacent surface high pressure extending south and west into the Great Lakes and western New York from Quebec has ensured another dry, mostly clear to partly cloudy day across eastern New York and western New England. Sufficient mixing and plenty of solar radiation from minimal obstruction has allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area this afternoon, making it feel more like early Summer rather than late. While tranquility persists here, just off the New England Coast, a coastal low pressure system has continued to organize and deepen throughout the day as it slowly inches farther north and slightly west. Being on the back side of this system, the only true impacts that have been felt thus far as a result of it have been the spreading of broken cirrus bands especially into our New England zones. Of course, with subsidence juxtaposing vertical motion, coverage has remained limited. However, through tomorrow morning, clouds will gradually increase from east to west as the aforementioned system tracks farther north and retrogrades closer to the New England Coast. The most extensive coverage will primarily lie to the east of the Hudson River courtesy of upper ridging and surface high pressure remaining nearby aiding to keep areas to the west mainly clear. Radiational cooling will therefore aid in the development of patchy fog for some sheltered and low-lying areas. Low temperatures tonight will fall largely to the mid to upper 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The coastal low continues to spin just off the New England Coast tomorrow, allowing clouds to continue to spread westward. Skies are not anticipated to be completely obscured, however, as high pressure and weak ridging in the Great Lakes continues to pose counteracting subsidence. Therefore, coverage was maximized at partly to mostly cloudy with less coverage to the west of the Hudson and more to the east. Additionally, throughout the day tomorrow, a side-door cold front will gradually sink south towards the region from southeast Quebec/northeast New England. Little additional moisture than that which will be introduced from the cyclonic flow of the adjacent low will accompany this front. And while it will provide some additional forcing for ascent, little if any precipitation is expected as a result of its southwestward track into the region. It is possible that an isolated, light shower or two develop in the Upper-Hudson Valley and/or Southern Vermont tomorrow afternoon along its progression, however, with forecast soundings showing fairly dry low-level conditions, its possible that rain could evaporate before reaching the ground. For now, excluded slight chance PoPs, though this could change in coming updates. High temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today with mid to upper 70s below 1000 ft and upper 60s to low 70s both above and within much of our New England counties courtesy of the anticipated, more extensive cloud cover. The aforementioned front continues to sink through the region Friday night into Saturday morning, maintaining partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. As such, patchy fog will be highly limited Friday night and lows will fall primarily to the low to upper 50s. The aforementioned front will wash out throughout the day Saturday, but with the coastal low still within reach, a shortwave perturbation will rotate about its western periphery and through the region, allowing for some scattered showers in southern Vermont before daybreak. Additional showers are possible east of the Hudson Saturday as the low sinks back south and west, so maintained slight chance PoPs mainly for western New England. A weak shortwave disturbance will also pass by to our west throughout the day Saturday, but limited forcing should keep showers at bay. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of mid 70s possible in valley areas. The coastal low will continue to track farther into the Atlantic Saturday night, reinforcing widespread dry conditions across the region in time for upper-level ridging to begin approaching from the west. Low temperatures Saturday night will fall to the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s above 2000 ft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another stretch of dry weather is in store for at least the first half of the long term forecast period with cooler temperatures to accompany. Upper-level ridging begins to build north and east from the Ohio Valley Sunday, becoming situated across the region by Sunday night. Surface high pressure extending south from Quebec will pair with ridging aloft to ensure dry conditions through at least Monday. Highs Sunday will range primarily from the upper 60s to low 70s before cooling to the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low 60s across higher terrain Monday. The remainder of the long term forecast period contains some uncertainty as it pertains to a frontal system looking to approach the region from the Great Lakes. Timing seems to be the most significant difference amongst sources of guidance, though the track of the low also remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Some medium range models indicate the system`s impact beginning as early as Tuesday morning where as others implicate Tuesday night as the onset of showers. This system does, however, look to be the next potential chance for more widespread showers across the region Wednesday into Thursday. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be fairly similar at mid/upper 60s to pockets of near or just above 70 with low 60s possible at higher elevations. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18z/Fri...VFR conditions are expected into the evening hours at all TAF sites with just a few fair weather cumulus at or above 5000 feet and some high cirrus. Mostly clear conditions tonight will likely result in some patchy fog development where some reduced vsbys are possible at all sites. The best window for fog would be between 05z-12z/Fri. Any fog will then lift by or shortly after 12z/Fri with a return to VFR conditions with some fair weather cumulus and high cirrus once again. No precipitation is expected through the TAF period. North to northeasterly wind between 5-10 kt this afternoon will trend light to calm tonight. Wind will then be east to northeasterly at 5-10 kt on Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Rathbun