663
FXUS61 KALY 222339
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
739 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds late
tonight, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with a few
showers, mainly south and west of Albany. High pressure will
bring dry weather and some clearing for Tuesday. An approaching
low pressure and frontal system will bring increasing chances
for showers for Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 7:40 PM EDT...Coastal Low well SE of Cape Cod
and high pressure to our northeast are resulting in E/SE flow
and relatively cool temperatures across our region this evening.
With a ridge of high pressure extending southwestwards into
western New England, most of the region remains dry, although
there are a few showers across far northern Herkimer County in
the vicinity of a frontal boundary that has been stalled across
the region through today. Added in PoPs here through the next
couple hours, but showers should diminish quickly after sunset,
similar to last night. Also adjusted sky grids to reflect mid-
level clouds along the eastern slopes of the
Berkshires/Southern Greens and in the Mid Hudson Valley near the
frontal boundary. Outside of these areas, skies are relatively
clear, which should allow temperatures to drop off quickly now
that the sun has set. However, clouds increase late tonight
ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. Overall, just minor
adjustments with this update, as previous forecast remains in
good shape.

.Previous...Diurnal Cu/strato-cu should dissipate this evening,
with a period of clear to partly cloudy skies expected before
clouds thicken from the west toward daybreak. This should allow
temps to drop off into the mid/upper 40s across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley and western New England
where enough clear skies occur, with lower 50s elsewhere.

Patchy fog may develop later this evening, however overall areal
extent is not expected to be too widespread at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave currently across Great Lakes region will track mainly
north of the region Monday. Lingering confluent upper level flow
across the region should weaken shortwave and overall dynamics
associated with this feature upon reaching the region Monday
afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture may allow for some
spotty light showers/sprinkles to reach portions of the Mohawk
Valley, eastern Catskills and Schoharie County by mid to late
Monday morning through mid afternoon. Should confluent upper
level flow become weaker and/or shift slightly farther east than
currently expected, some showers/sprinkles could even extend
into the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley midday through
early/mid afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy with slightly
cooler temperatures for Monday, with highs 65-70 for valley
areas and 60-65 across higher terrain areas.

Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our
northeast should provide some clearing for Monday night, and at
least partly sunny skies Tuesday. Cool Monday night with lows
mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Tuesday mainly in the
60s.

Clouds increase once again Tuesday night in advance of next
system approaching from the west. Some showers may develop after
midnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in
the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be
our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although
amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibility that nearby
lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to
decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers
during this time period, with some possibility for a period of
steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability
could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly
across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning,
then fair weather may return by late next week into next
weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy
tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more
progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather.
Should this system become less progressive and/or its track
shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur
instead.

Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some
drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across
higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...All TAF sites currently seeing VFR
conditions, which should continue through the duration of the
TAF period. Can`t rule out some brief patchy fog at GFL late
tonight/around daybreak if there are enough breaks in the
clouds, and some MVFR stratus may develop for a few hours around
sunrise at PSF as well. Otherwise, will see increasing mid and
high clouds after midnight and through tomorrow, but conditions
should remain VFR. A few showers can`t be ruled out tomorrow
afternoon. Added a VCSH group at POU late tomorrow afternoon
where confidence is highest, but may need to add mention of
showers at ALB/GFL with subsequent TAF issuances if confidence
increases.

Winds this evening will be from the E/SE at around 5 kt, except
5-10 kt at ALB. Winds generally diminish to 5 kt or less between
04-06z, but increase to 5-8 kt from the SE tomorrow morning,
continuing through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Main
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main