162
FXUS61 KALY 231857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
257 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers are
expected mainly west of the Hudson River through tonight. Drier
weather and cool temperatures will return for Tuesday, with rain
chances increasing areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Expect isolated to scattered rain showers to remain a threat
mainly for areas along and west of the Hudson Valley through
early evening. As the shortwave aloft and jet forcing depart the
area, any leftover rain showers should exit the area or
dissipate by midnight. Rainfall will remain around or below a
tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions with
continued cloudy skies.

Overnight, mid-level ridging will build across the area from the
west, which will result in strengthening surface ridging across
western New England. Expect dry conditions with partly to
mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures falling into the upper
40s (terrain) to low 50s (valleys).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The ridging aloft and surface high pressure will linger across
the area for the daytime Tuesday, with skies featuring a mix of
clouds & sun. PM highs will range from the upper 50s to low 60s
(terrain), to low 70s (valleys).

Tuesday night, a positively tilted shortwave is on track to approach
the area from the west. As it does so, the southernmost section will
break off and strengthen into a closed low across the Midwest, with
the northern stream trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ontario.
WAA and moisture will strengthen across the region with increasing
southwesterly flow, forcing with the shortwave and surface cold
front, which will increase chances of welcomed rain showers
across the region. Activity will be isolated to scattered to
start, with coverage increasing during the daytime Wednesday and
lasting through the night. Rumbles of thunder will also be
possible as we will have some weak levels of elevated
instability per fcst soundings, though the risk of severe
weather is low.

Temperatures will be cool thanks to the clouds and precipitation,
with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. There will
not be much of a diurnal drop Wednesday night with lows only in the
low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unsettled start to the long term forecast period will give way to
what looks to be another prolonged stretch of dry weather across
eastern New York and western New England. Read on for details...

Upper-level, shortwave troughing resides across the region Thursday
morning as an associated surface cyclone tracks south and east
across southern Quebec. A weak cold front will swing through the
region from west to east Thursday in attendance with the progression
of the surface low while the upper-level wave deepens and closes off
at the 500 mb level. These features, though their position will
maintain better forcing to the north of the region, will allow for
isolated to scattered showers to linger Thursday morning into the
afternoon especially in higher terrain areas where upslope flow
could aid in overcoming the lack of stronger forced ascent. However,
with the upper low following a fairly swift track, dry conditions
should be reinforced across the region by Thursday evening.
Additionally, with moisture on the modest side, QPF is anticipated
to be light and much needed after the recent dry spells.

Upon the exit of the aforementioned system, geopotential heights
increase as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and surface
high pressure sinks south from southeast Canada. Fair weather will
persist across eastern New York and western New England through
Sunday as the upper ridge continues to build farther across the
Northeast.

High temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will be
fairly steady with upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of mid 60s
across higher terrain regions and upper 70s in valley areas. Low
temperatures, too, will be fairly similar across the period with
mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of a weak
upper level disturbance. Some reduction to high MVFR cigs around
3 kft AGL may occur at KPSF prior to 00Z/TUE. Cigs will be
mainly 4-6 kft AGL with mid level clouds 10-15 kft AGL. Light
rain showers or sprinkles may impact KALB-KPSF south and VCSH
groups were used.

The skies will clear north of KALB after midnight with some
residual mid level clouds KALB-KPSF south to KPOU. We did keep
some MVFR cigs overnight at KPSF with cigs 2.5-3 kft AGL lasting
through 12Z/TUE. Sct-bkn mid to high clouds will continue
through 12Z/TUE for KALB/KGFL with some broken sky cover
possible in the 4-6 kft AGL range.

The winds will be east to southeast at less than 10 KT this
afternoon and will become light and variable in direction at 5
KT or less shortly before or after midnight. The winds will be
northeast to southeast at 4-8 KT after 12Z/TUE.

Outlook...

Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night to Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speck
NEAR TERM...Speck
SHORT TERM...Speck
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula